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Thread: Lose it all in high count

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  1. #1


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Insuring 20's, 19's and 11's at sub-optimal
    True Counts is a fine Risk Averse measure.

    What about "Even Money?"
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    What about "Even Money?"
    Same thing.
    Do recall a comment from Don some years back - something to the effect of rejecting insurance at true 2.94, as it was under index, and losing.

    I see nothing wrong with both risk averse insurance as well as risk averse even money (both within limitations).

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Same thing.
    Do recall a comment from Don some years back - something to the effect of rejecting insurance at true 2.94, as it was under index, and losing.

    I see nothing wrong with both risk averse insurance as well as risk averse even money (both within limitations).
    I dont know why, but my style of play, leans more toward "in favor" of "risk averse betting" while playing the hands to Maximum EV..Even Doubling S21 v 7 isnt beyond me..And Even though im not a fan of RA indexes, there are a few i actually do use(Splits and Doubles) when Max Bets are on the line..Taking Even money slighlty below the index on Max Bet is def. one of them..With Min. bets the play of my hands is very aggressive and i use no RA indexes..Keep in mind, im not taken into account any camo plays here...
    Last edited by Jack Jackson; 12-02-2017 at 04:38 PM.
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    I dont know why, but my style of play, leans more toward "in favor" of "risk averse betting" while playing the hands to Maximum EV..Even Doubling S21 v 7 isnt beyond me..And Even though im not a fan of RA indexes, there are a few i actually do use(Splits and Doubles) when Max Bets are on the line..Taking Even money slighlty below the index on Max Bet is def. one of them..With Min. bets the play of my hands is very aggressive and i use no RA indexes..Keep in mind, im not taken into account any camo plays here...
    The style of play is yours. It certainly appears to be a slash and burn style of play. My preference is far softer, though still reasonably aggressive.. It keeps me playing over s reasonably broad geographical area of play, except my own locale where my presence is no longer welcome. It does allow me to achieve my goals.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    What about "Even Money?"
    Yes. Of course.


  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by bj21abc View Post
    Remember that insuring "good" hands (at less than TC 3) can improve SCORE - lowers EV but lowers variance even more. Ref Grosjean on insuring 20.
    This surprises me. Can you provide a further cite regarding this assertion; i.e., is this in Exhibit CAA?

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    This surprises me. Can you provide a further cite regarding this assertion; i.e., is this in Exhibit CAA?
    Don't have the quote but this is in Exhibit CAA.
    It's not a critical issue, will not really hurt your game not knowing about this. Something for you to look into if interested.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    This surprises me. Can you provide a further cite regarding this assertion; i.e., is this in Exhibit CAA?
    Grosjean has a lot to say about counting and counters in that book. Mostly ripping on them and their "massive edges."

  9. #9


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    This is a complicated subject on which the definitive article was written by Michael Canjar (MathProf) in Optimal Play, edited by Ethier and Eadington. It isn't possible to summarize all the nuances here, but suffice it to say that what has been written above is a gross simplification of a very involved topic.

    Don

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    This is a complicated subject on which the definitive article was written by Michael Canjar (MathProf) in Optimal Play, edited by Ethier and Eadington. It isn't possible to summarize all the nuances here, but suffice it to say that what has been written above is a gross simplification of a very involved topic.

    Don
    You can (and do) say that about many if not most topics.
    Real people do not use two decimal places when calculating TC (those that do I'll spot you the extra $2 a year you make as a result). No-one is going to go into a 10,000 word mathematical essay here - most here are looking for related ways to better their game and that means that yes, we usually need to grossly oversimplify matters in order to translate them into simple changes to our game.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bj21abc View Post
    No-one is going to go into a 10,000 word mathematical essay here
    I'll make sure to limit mine to 9,999 words.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I'll make sure to limit mine to 9,999 words.
    Appreciated

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    In the words of Larry "The Cable Guy." Now, that was funny. I don't care where you're from. Refreshing to see T3s comic side for a change.

    Ditto. Hope he appreciated mine - he gets a little defensive on my stuff, but the opportunity was to good.

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