double-deck spread

[jacquesblack]

I am making my visit to Las Vegas for five years and from everything that I have read it appears that I am going to have to drastically change my mo.
Previously I used to concentrate on the lucrative six-deck games with late surrender offered by all the MGM stores and several others. Now, I gather most of these good games are for a $50 minimum and the spread necessary to beat these games is beyond my bankroll. I realise, therefore, that I am probably going to have to concentrate on double-deck as lower stakes shoe games will probably have a poor rule set.
So, I would be grateful for some advice as to what I can get away with on double-deck as I know these games are much more closely watched.
I was thinking that it might be best to concentrate on the off-Strip stores playing all hands perfectly, apart from splitting tens, and spreading $10 x 2 to $90 x 2 (dropping to one hand of $10 in lean decks and not returning to two hands until after the shuffle). How long could I survive doing this? Are there are enough casinos offering a decent game to allow me to get in 150 hours of play over the three weeks I will be in Vegas?

[ZeeBabar]

I am making my visit to Las Vegas for five years and from everything that I have read it appears that I am going to have to drastically change my mo.
Previously I used to concentrate on the lucrative six-deck games with late surrender offered by all the MGM stores and several others. Now, I gather most of these good games are for a $50 minimum and the spread necessary to beat these games is beyond my bankroll. I realise, therefore, that I am probably going to have to concentrate on double-deck as lower stakes shoe games will probably have a poor rule set.
So, I would be grateful for some advice as to what I can get away with on double-deck as I know these games are much more closely watched.
I was thinking that it might be best to concentrate on the off-Strip stores playing all hands perfectly, apart from splitting tens, and spreading $10 x 2 to $90 x 2 (dropping to one hand of $10 in lean decks and not returning to two hands until after the shuffle). How long could I survive doing this? Are there are enough casinos offering a decent game to allow me to get in 150 hours of play over the three weeks I will be in Vegas?

You will not have a problem on busy times as you wont stand out as big bettor. D D games, i have managed with a 1-6 spread. 6 deck games, I play 2x 10 to 2 x 90 , walk when TC goes below -2. Course, I mix around a lot, sometimes playing uneven hands, sometimes playing 2 x 40, sometimes 1 x 6o, etc.

[jimmybond007]

Imo that spread is too aggressive. Even if you don't show your 1x10 to 2x90 in a single shoe. That's still the effective spread you are showing the casino your bets in negative shoes is 10$ and your bets in positive shoes is 2x90. Do you think they are going tolerate your action spreading from 10$ to 180$? I suspect not. I would advise just playing two hands all the time. Be selective if you drop a hand, drop a hand when you or the table has lost some hands and then "try to change the cards" or something to that effect.

Regardless of that 2x10 to 2x90 is still too aggressive. I would suggest 1-4 or 1-5. Learn lots of negative indices to help your small spread as with DD you are going to be playing some negative counts and you will help yourself extract more out of the game when you make better decisions in bad shoes.

[stopgambling]

he said he plays 1-6 in DD and 2 x $90 at 6 deck. zee never said he spreads to 2 x $90 on DD .

[jimmybond007]

I'm talking about the OP. I read it as he was going to use that spread on DD. I agree not too bad for 6d but I'll advised for DD

[Romes]

IMO the OP is too aggressive as well. Off-strip it depends where you go, but the smaller the joint the more they're going to sweat action... So if you could get away with 1-8 on a decent strip property that handles action well, then off strip the same spread could get you in trouble at a smaller shop.

Personally, I think you should stick to the 6D or 8D games. Anyone with a lower bankroll should be looking for these low heat games they can camp out and just plug in hours with a good spread. There are also plenty of games in vegas that have beatable side bets which for someone spreading low, such as $10-$90, could easily double your hourly EV. People need to start looking at blackjack games in a different light. This is like the 10th thread in 2 weeks I've posted this list on

1) Heat/Tollerence
2) Penetration
3) Side Bets
4) Speed
5) Rules/HE

Ideally you should find a game that perhaps doesn't have the best rules (>.5%) but has no/low heat, good PEN, and a beatable side bet. That's how you'd maximize your EV.

To just answer your question generically, if that's what you want, I'd recommend no more than a 1-8 spread and short sessions. Even then at some places I fear you'll end up getting a couple boots or no more blackjacks.

[Bigdaddy]

People need to start looking at blackjack games in a different light. This is like the 10th thread in 2 weeks I've posted this list on

1) Heat/Tollerence
2) Penetration
3) Side Bets
4) Speed
5) Rules/HE

Nice post Romes - thanks. Also - I enjoyed your spot on GWAE - way better than the lucky stiff that turned his bankroll into gold in a year - that's not my world.

Anyway, regarding the above - ranking #3 before #4? I have no doubt that you're right, but it's a teachable moment that I still need to absorb.

[refinery]

way better than the lucky stiff that turned his bankroll into gold in a year - that's not my world.

Something isn't quite right with that story, IMO.

[refinery]

Anyway, regarding the above - ranking #3 before #4? I have no doubt that you're right, but it's a teachable moment that I still need to absorb.

Not putting words into Romes mouth, but he mentioned previously about how red chip players can get a lot more EV out of a game with a countable side bet. IMO, preferably a side bet that is correlated with the primary count. Hell, I have a decent spread and top bet and it's saved my bacon a few times.

[Romes]

Nice post Romes - thanks. Also - I enjoyed your spot on GWAE - way better than the lucky stiff that turned his bankroll into gold in a year - that's not my world.

Anyway, regarding the above - ranking #3 before #4? I have no doubt that you're right, but it's a teachable moment that I still need to absorb.

Appreciate the kind words, and someone else that understands the struggling side of not always being above expectation =P.

As far as #3 and #4 go... IF we're just sticking to card counting, I think they'll change based on the players position in their career. I think #3 then #4 should absolutely be the case for lower level and even medium counters. As one progresses with their bets and their average bet goes up and up with their bankroll going up and up, the EV remains static that you get from 'most' side bets. Thus the EV from BJ will start to overtake the EV from most side bets.

I like to usually give a couple examples of lower spread to really exemplify the point:
1) Spreading $5-$40 on a decent (~.36%) 6D BJ game. Their hourly will be something like $8/hour. Here the Lucky Ladies will be worth 160% of their BJ EV, more than doubling their hourly EV.
2) Spreading $10-$90 on a decent (~.36%) 6D BJ game. Their hourly will be something like $14/hour. Lucky Ladies hourly can still basically DOUBLE their hourly EV.

3) Spreading $25-$300 on a decent (~.36%) 6D BJ game. Their hourly will be something like $45/hour. Now the LL EV is only about 30% of this, instead of 100%+ in the above 2 examples.
4) Spreading $100-$400 on a decent (~.36%) 6D BJ game. Their hourly will be something like $70/hour. Now the LL EV is only about 18% of this...

So as you can see the value in the side bet to ones overall EV decreases as one grows their bankroll and average bet. So overtime, it will become less important and less profitable. Most of the time I'm posting this list it's on newer/newer-ish counters whom are definitely more towards the #1 and #2 scenarios on this list. They'll be pulling their hair out about getting that .42% HE blackjack game instead of the .66% HE game, when in reality that .66% HE game might be better IN EVERY WAY for them.

[Bigdaddy]

As far as #3 and #4 go... IF we're just sticking to card counting, I think they'll change based on the players position in their career. I think #3 then #4 should absolutely be the case for lower level and even medium counters. As one progresses with their bets and their average bet goes up and up with their bankroll going up and up, the EV remains static that you get from 'most' side bets. Thus the EV from BJ will start to overtake the EV from most side bets.

Agree - especially if you can find a good game with the Lucky Ladies or the King's Bounty side bet. It makes a good game that much better, because you can use your regular count for the side bet (i.e., you don't have to employ a specialized, "Elliot Jacobsen" side-count).

I found a good DD game a while back that had one of these side bets. It's a no-brainer at TC +7: "I haven't seen a queen in a while". Wham, bam thank-you mam....