Spanish 21 EV?

[Gronbog]

If we agree on this ...

I fully agree that the best way to work out this problem is, as you wrote, using the "value" of the coupon as the amount of additional live money you can expect to have in your pocket after the process of using the coupon has been resolved

then you cannot believe these ...

YES. Absolutely. When I bet a match play, with a regular bet, I am betting 1.5 units, so when I win, I win 1.5 units.

YES. Absolutely. When I bet a match play, with a regular bet, I am betting 1.5 units, so when I lose, I lose 1.5 units.

They are contradictory.
Once it has been bet, the coupon no more than a reminder to the dealer that the payout structure of the game has been changed.

While I would expect that my surrender strategy (and my forfeit strategy, and the double-down strategy that I generated, but haven't posted in this thread) would be very VERY close to what your simulation shows, I look forward to your results.

I think that you're in for a bit of a rude surprise. I tried applying your surrender model to blackjack and got nothing close to the strategy that Grosjean and I have both independently computed.

Thanks! :-)

My pleasure.