Spanish 21 EV?

[All Clear]

So I noticed that my neighborhood store which gives me the most match-play coupons, allows for these coupons to be used on Spanish 21 (many other local stores don't allow match play coupons to be used on SP21). Not only that, but there is this sweet deal- if you use it on the game, and surrender, they take your match-play coupon only, but you get to keep your chip. Using the standard valuation of 50% of value for a match-play coupon (so a $50 match play coupon, is actually worth $25, give or take, in cash), this means you can surrender and only lose 33.3% of the overall bet. As I get lots of Match Play coupons each time I play, it is worth knowing the proper surrender strategy to use.....

Does anyone know of a chart similar to this for blackjack (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/), that shows the EV for each hand at S17 Spanish 21? Then I can just look at which hands have an optimal hit/stand decision that is under -0.333, and surrender those, when using my coupon.

The easiest answers, are when the original optimal play involves standing. Per Katarina Walker's book, page 54, in a S17 game, the dealer busts 31.5% (less than 33.3%) of the time, so with a match-play coupon, surrendering when one should otherwise stand with a stiff total (such as 15 v 2 and 16 v 2) is warranted. Against a 3, the dealer will bust 33.5% (more than 33.3%) of the time, but page 134 shows that when the count is positive (using her count, but the same would likely apply to any other reasonable counting system), the busting percentage is slightly higher than that. Because I would only use the match play when the count is slightly positive, I will not surrender instead of standing against a dealer 3.

The irony of my asking this question, is that I actually asked something similar six and a half years ago (I was counting cards at Spanish 21 before it was "cool" to do so....)- kudos to Assume_R for giving me an answer, for each True Count (!) for a few situations- see the link from Blackjackinfo.com- ("https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/spanish-21-expected-return-charts.22380/"). It shows that surrendering 15 v T, 16 v 9,T,A, 17 v T,A is the correct play (since the EV for each of these is far far worse than -.333), and 15 v 9,A and 16 v 7,8 is almost surely the right play, based on this information. I'm wondering about 12 v 7,8,9,T,A, 13 v 7,8,9,T,A 14 v 2,7,8,9,T,A, 15 v 7,8, 17 v 8,9, and even 18 v 9,T,A. Of course, I'm fine with an answer for this using an infinite deck model, and no counting. That question from almost seven years ago seems silly now, as it would only save me a quarter (see the thread)- but with a $50 match play coupon and $50 in chips, this answer would make a much bigger difference. Any help would be appreciated. :-)

I really try not to ask questions on this forum, and find the answers myself, but am stumped here. Anyone else play Spanish 21 with Match Plays? Anyone have a simulator for the game, or one for blackjack, where the tens can be removed, that can provide the EV figures for the questionable hands, or at least whether they are above or below -0.333?

[stopgambling]

if you use it on the game, and surrender, they take your match-play coupon only, but you get to keep your chip.

you are very lucky

[All Clear]

Gronbog- I received your sheet. Thanks so much! I'll analyze it, and if anyone wants the info, shoot me a note on this page starting on November 7th or so (I need time to examine each cell, and am not a full time AP).

you are very lucky

Hi Stop- Yes, this is a big deal, and I disagree with Flash that this is just chasing pennies. This store gives overlapping match play offers at certain times, and is known to be quite generous for match plays. I saw someone surrendering and only losing the match play (was confirmed with the floor), and realized that this can significantly change my EV overall. TThree wrote about this store "Match Play offers can overlap. I was going to say you lose the coupon and are done but I have had stacks of more than 30 $25 MP coupons there." - and that doesn't shock me. I have had $150 (6*25) in Match Play myself for a single visit, and I am by no means a high roller.

I know the place. They have paid the bonuses for years. That said Match Play results have not been good there on SP21 and I have never hit a bonus using a MP. I am not sure how the math works out but I bet there are better options for playing the Match Play there.

Hi TThree- I believe you are incorrect, and with the ability to surrender and only lose a third of your bet, I would expect (and I don't just throw around these comments- I do take the time to research) that this is the best Match Play option in the casino, at least outside the high-limit room. If you disagree, check the store's match play coupons (you can't play it on a single number in Roulette), and tell me what you think is a better option. :-)

The strategy for doubling and splitting may also change, depending on whether they will let you do so with real money and for how much real money. I don't have that strategy, but could generate it.

Nice job Gronbog- that is correct, I noted this in the past, and I am impressed that you considered it. Give yourself a pat on the back. :-) For a defensive split, when betting $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with the same two items- a $25 chip and another $25 coupon (this is allowed). For an offensive split, when betting the same $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with $50 (this is also allowed) total in chips instead (in theory, you are "splitting for more", since the base bet has an EV of $37.50, while your second split has $50 on it). You would also double down slightly more often (perhaps 9 vs 5 in a neutral count? perhaps A5 v 5 or A4 v 6?), since you can add $50 to your original $37.50 bet. But this gets more complicated.... though I think the chart you sent me will allow me to figure it out. If you want my results for splitting and doubling, let me know- it will take many hours to set up, and I have a full-time job.... Message me here after November 7th, after I have analyzed all the cells.

A match play is not worth a full bet because it is surrendered on a win. The value of the match play varies depending on how you use it. For example, if you can bet a match play on a number straight up in roulette it is worth a lot more than if you play it in blackjack. Blackjack is one of the worst games you can play it on, although if you can surrender it in lieu of your bet then it becomes much more attractive.

Hi Meistro - no casino in my town allows you to bet a match play on a number in Roulette. Blackjack actually may be the best place to play it, when considering the options given- the standard place you are allowed to play it in most of the casinos, are on Blackjack, Baccarat (player bet), Caribbean Stud (ante bet), Pai Gow Poker, Craps (pass wager only), Asian Poker, Roulette (red, 1 - 18, or even bet only).... and with those choices, I used to do blackjack. Putting it on a Spanish 21 game where you only lose the coupon on a surrender is BY FAR the best place to play it that I can see.

That is more spot on. The new owners are giving better cuts but it is still hard to win there. Better but not good.

Without factoring in doubles and splits, for a matched bet to be no advantage to either the player or the house you must win one for every two you lose.That is where the -0.333 comes from. At exactly the -0.3333 threshold variance of zero would break the tie in favor of surrender. Not the -0.5 of normal surrender (win one and lose three). I hope I did that right. LoL

Yes, TThree, you did that as I did, correctly. :-) And we are definitely talking about the same place- there are new owners.... I never thought of that place as a sweaty joint- but it could be that I don't play as high stakes as you do. If you have had experiences there I should know about, shoot me an email. As a fellow Spanish 21 counter, I would want to know all I can to stay on their good side- I want to keep getting their match plays. You have my (real life) email address from before. :-)

[Three]

If you disagree, check the store's match play coupons (you can't play it on a single number in Roulette), and tell me what you think is a better option. :-)

You get half your bet back on the even money roulette bets in this jurisdiction. I have never played a MP on roulette there but that usually means you either lose half your bet and keep the MP or you just lose the MP and no money. Not every store does it the same. That doesn't necessarily make it the best place to use it but it has to be considered into the decision. For direct bets I think roulette is the best place to play it because you get half the coupons face value if green is spun making it a true 50/50 proposition.

I never thought of that place as a sweaty joint- but it could be that I don't play as high stakes as you do.

It is what happens to you and your info after they back you off. That is equivalent to more heat. I just don't like the conditions I find there most of the time.

[Gronbog]

Gronbog- I received your sheet. Thanks so much! I'll analyze it, and if anyone wants the info, shoot me a note on this page starting on November 7th or so (I need time to examine each cell, and am not a full time AP).

Thanks, but depending on how this debate is resolved, it may or not end up being of any use to you.

[Three]

Anyone else play Spanish 21 with Match Plays?

Make sure they pay all the bonuses on the coupon. If they don't it is a bad place to play your coupon.

[Gronbog]

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

Gives basic strategy deviations for different match play surrender options for blackjack. He also shows that blackjack is rarely the best option for using these coupons. However, if you have no choice but to use the coupon on a blackjack variant then, without specific information on Spanish 21, then blackjack with surrender may be your best option.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

Who am I to speak up if I think that the redoubtable
James Grosjean may have published an error?

I am Iconoclastic, so ...

On page #5 in "Beyond Coupons" (see link in post #4)
it delineates a Craps "Pass Line" Bet returning significantly
more to the holder of a Match Play coupon than a "Don't Pass"
Bet.

I M H O this is egregiously wrong. That is simply because the
Pass Line House Edge is higher than the Don't Pass House Edge.
Admittedly, the difference is small, approximately 0.02%.

I really am looking for feedback on this.

[Gronbog]

Who am I to speak up if I think that the redoubtable
James Grosjean may have published an error?

I am Iconoclastic, so ...

On page #5 in "Beyond Coupons" (see link in post #4)
it delineates a Craps "Pass Line" Bet returning significantly
more to the holder of a Match Play coupon than a "Don't Pass"
Bet.

I M H O this is egregiously wrong. That is simply because the
Pass Line House Edge is higher than the Don't Pass House Edge.
Admittedly, the difference is small, approximately 0.02%.

I really am looking for feedback on this.

I did the math on this and I can confirm that Grosjean is correct. I also discovered why he went to 3 decimal places for the pass bet. Three was also correct that it makes a difference whether the coupon is saved on a push. For a $10 match play coupon:

Pass: $4.7879
Don't Pass (coupon relinquished on push): $4.6566
Don't Pass (coupon saved on push): $4.7896

I will make my spreadsheet available to anyone who asks. It works for any ratio of the coupon to the live money including zero for live money, which is what most people call a free bet but which Grosjean calls a "Funny Chip".

Once again, the normal house edge is only one factor. It's all in the way the payout structure of the game changes. Variance is a big factor because the coupon only asserts itself when you lose. If you still need convincing, consider that a single number on roulette is the king of coupons, yet it has a horrible house edge and only wins 1 out of 37 or 38 times for 0 and 00 respectively.

[Gronbog]

Actually, I have the chart you need. I can't PM you because you're not a member. Please provide a throw-away email address.

[All Clear]

Actually, I have the chart you need. I can't PM you because you're not a member. Please provide a throw-away email address.

(After I received Gronbog's note and file, I edited this post to remove my throw-away email address, which I would prefer not be posted publicly for an extended period. If you are reading this, and want to contact me, post on this page your throw-away email, and I'll shoot you a note from mine)

Wow- thanks so much! I can't use the coupon on surrender blackjack, since there is no blackjack with surrender in this casino (and don't think there are many stores in the town near me that offer this rule, at least outside the high-limit rooms).

TThree- they pay the bonuses. :-)

Also, a note above that my 31.5% figure (in the original post) is for the dealer busting on a 2, though that is likely obvious when I wrote that the adjustments to make are 15 v 2, and 16 v 2, right after quoting the 31.5% number.

[Three]

TThree- they pay the bonuses. :-)

I know the place. They have paid the bonuses for years. That said MP results have not been good there on SP21 and I have never hit a bonus using a MP. I am not sure how the math works out but I bet there are better options for playing the MP there. As you know not many surrenders in SP21 unless you wait for a high playing count to use the MP coupon. But that can raise red flags at a notoriously sweaty place.

[Gronbog]

The basic strategy for surrender would change, calling for many more surrenders than normal. That's why he wanted the chart with the EVs of each action.