One longevity story..

[ZeeBabar]

There is this guy I met in the largest city in MO. He has his social security and pension. His strategy, going on 4 years is to work as AP 5 days a week. He leaves each day with $1k, plays $10 min 6 deck games or $25 min. dD games. He adheres to a strict $200 win strategy each day. Basically aiming for $1000 a week. He quits when up $200 and is off the rest of the day. Claims he has not had a losing day in many months of playing 20 days a week.

At one casino, I saw him walk in and sit at the $25 DD game I was playing. He sat, count was positive, he made his $200 by the 4-5 round,cashed out and left.

At the deli on the second floor, as I was waiting for my order, he met me and had a most interesting conversation about his life. He says that sometimes his "work" lasts a few minutes as I had seen, sometimes it's taken him several sessions at the 3-4 casinos he plays at (max of about an hour). If he has lost or not won $200 at his first session at one casino, he drives over and plays at another and if he is in the hole, he keeps gong till he is even and up $200. He says the pit folks like him, know he might be counting but since never takes more than $200 on any day, sometimes loses at a casino only to make it up at the next, he is tolerated every place. He claims he earns about $50k a year. He does not want to be barred or have to travel out the f his city.

He starts his day at a different casino at a different shift each day and that is scheduled and on a calendar. Too bad KJ is not on this forum, he would probably approve.

He heard my story says I need to find other hobbies and make BJ a job, that I like playing BJ and that was my problem.

[Barney112]

There's a man here in the st. Charles st. Louis area. Hills Gold

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[Barney112]

Sorry about that . He goes for a hundred A-Day and does very well at it

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[Ryemo]

I'm a bit skeptical. I'd be interested in hearing more details. These are the questions that come to mind...

Why cap your session roll to only $1,000? What happens if you lose said $1,000? Go home for the day? Or get more money from home and come back? If so, why even have a session roll cap to begin with? Why set a $200 win cap too? What happens if you have a day where you never win and you just keep digging? Does this person spend the night at the casino? If so, won't that break the 1hr max rule? There's only so many casinos in one city... What happens if this person wins $200 half way through a positive shoe or loses his $1,000 half way through a positive shoe? Does this person walk away from an advantage? If so, do you have any idea what that does to your EV? What kind of spreads does this person employ? If the spreads are low, then I imagine earning $50K in one year IS possible (due to positive variance), but earning $50K in EV annually using this approach is highly doubful. But if this person is using spreads wide enough to beat his particular game, then I imagine this person will have MANY sessions where he will bust out, due to his $1,000 session cap. Am I missing something?

These are just some of the questions that come to mind. This story of longevity doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to me, but maybe I'm missing some important details...

[NotEnoughHeat]

Why cap your session roll to only $1,000? What happens if you lose said $1,000? Go home for the day? Or get more money from home and come back? If so, why even have a session roll cap to begin with?

Yeah I find this a bit silly. Even early on as a red chipper I found that 1k session rolls have their problems. The thing is, there's actually an EV hit to having a session roll. The lower the session roll the bigger the hit. Imagine spreading $5-$50 (1-10, gross) with a session roll of $300. How often do you think you'll be stuck in a juicy shoe where you can't make a double down or bet the next round! You technically always have this problem but the effects are very minimized if you keep a large enough session roll to keep the probability of busting mid-session low. Increasing the rate at which you will systematically miss out on positive-EV hands compared to negative-EV hands is a no brainer problem.

Why set a $200 win cap too? [...] Does this person walk away from an advantage? If so, do you have any idea what that does to your EV?

Win caps and stop losses have been addressed with respect to counting in a few places. The problem is basically the same above. We know. I hope for that guys sake that that is not what he is doing.

What kind of spreads does this person employ? If the spreads are low, then I imagine earning $50K in one year IS possible (due to positive variance), but earning $50K in EV annually using this approach is highly doubful. But if this person is using spreads wide enough to beat his particular game, then I imagine this person will have MANY sessions where he will bust out, due to his $1,000 session cap. Am I missing something?

For my options, the EV/100 I can pull from straight counting is around $50 for 10 min and $125 for 25 min. But that's 1-20 and both 6D. But lets use the 25 min EV for ease of use and tone down the example to more realistic levels after.

for 50k/yr EV that's 40,000 rounds and 400 hours at 100 rph. 5 times a week? 5x52 = 260 days a week. An average of 1.54 hours per day, albeit the distribution would probably be skewed with an upper win stop (i.e. lots of short winning session, very few chasing losses for hours sessions). However, terribly idealized example. I don't know what DD EVs look like. But even at $100 EV/100 we're still look at 1.92 hours per day which seems reasonable.

If you or someone else could comment on what kind of EV you could possibly pull out we might be able to make another judgement but at the end of the day, we probably need more info on this guys spread, max bet, etc. to really say how plausible it all is.

[ZeeBabar]

I think the session role is unimportant. Perhaps he meantv 1k in cash in pocket but there is an ATM machine nearby. $1k is sufficient at $10 min. Games which are also open in early mornings on most week days with few players. He probably goes to the $25 DD games only if the 6deck is crowded.

I think he believes the $200 win limit is key because having more chips in front of you is the beginning of interest by the Pit and surveillance, the walking away even in positive counts is also a key to his survival. He never wants to lose his welcome. That is also key. Add to that, he has two sources of income for most of his necessities (soc. Security and pension) and he s fine.

For most of us, even in what are losing sessions, there were times we were up $200 but we chose to go for more and either we succeeded or lost.

[Bigdaddy]

This is a loser system. If true, then the guy obviously hasn't experienced a bad run yet. Talk to him next year and he'll tell you about his new and improved system...

[Ryemo]

This is a loser system. If true, then the guy obviously hasn't experienced a bad run yet. Talk to him next year and he'll tell you about his new and improved system...

My thoughts exactly!

[stopgambling]

these people play to look like everyone else and keep playing to win $200 or break even . they will play up to 6-8 hours a day.if necessary. they leave winning $200 so it doesn't look threatening. they certainly play more than 500 hours a year .does it work , i don't know.These people probably never account for expenses.

[stopgambling]

yes a long term in the red will put them in the hole that will likely take a year or two to get out.

[Ryemo]

I think the session role is unimportant. ... $1k is sufficient at $10 min.

You're wrong. God, I hope you never bring 1K to the $10 6D table and think that's sufficient. Think about it Zee... If this guy is at the $10 table and he's using a 15:1 or 20:1 spread, then that means he's only bringing roughly 5 to 6.5 max bets to the table. He's going to bust! But if he's using a smaller spread (ex/ 10:1), then his EV is practically nothing! If his spreads are even smaller than that on this $10 6D game, then I'm convinced he's not even playing a winning game.

He probably goes to the $25 DD games only if the 6deck is crowded.

If that's true, then he has the same high chance of busting out on this game too, assuming he's using at least a basic 6:1 spread on the DD game.

I think he believes the $200 win limit is key because having more chips in front of you is the beginning of interest by the Pit and surveillance, the walking away even in positive counts is also a key to his survival.

Ugh... smh

He never wants to lose his welcome. That is also key.

Don't worry, he won't. The casino would be idiots to throw this guy out.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Ryemo: +1

Good summary statement.

[stopgambling]

Using 3 to 4 x the hours to make the same kind of money just to hopefully stayed welcome . That is only if they are playing a winning game . Is it worth it ,who knows?