Trip evaluation and decision

[ZeeBabar]

Now that I am retired, local casinos have counter measures for me, I have a bit more time for short trips, playing $25 to $150 or 2 x $25 to 2 X $150, when is a trip worth it? For example, a trip is available that will cost me $100 to get to a destination, another $125 for car rental, $25 for car parking at home (say a total of $250), is a trip worth taking for 12-14 hours of actual play (I get in a Thursday night, play Friday and Saturday, depart in wee hours of Sunday)?

Another is a drive (4 hours) to get to a city and I get there at 2:00 p.m., drive to a couple of casinos and play till Midnight, catch a few hours of sleep and drive back the next morning. I assume I can get about 6 hours of table time. the cost is about $60 in Gas, $60 for motel or $120.

What criteria should I set for taking short trips? Given personal situation, week long trips are not possible.

What criteria makes for a successful short trip? I would consider $1k and up as a hugely successful trip, $2-900 as a moderately successful trip, breaking even or winning under $200 as acceptable but unsuccessful. anything less as a "waste of time'.

[Gronbog]

Measure the worth of your trip in EV per day after deducting expenses. Once you have that, only you can decide what threshold makes it worth your while.

After the fact, the success of a trip, or lack thereof, has little to do with the monetary result. Instead you should be considering:

• Did you get enough quality play in to meet your planned EV?
• Did you keep to your expense estimate?
• Did you draw any heat that you need to consider next time?
• Did you make any mistakes that you need to avoid next time?
• Did you learn anything?
• Based on the above, would you make the same trip again?

[Freightman]

Measure the worth of your trip in EV per day after deducting expenses. Once you have that, only you can decide what threshold makes it worth your while.

After the fact, the success of a trip, or lack thereof, has little to do with the monetary result. Instead you should be considering:

• Did you get enough quality play in to meet your planned EV?
• Did you keep to your expense estimate?
• Did you draw any heat that you need to consider next time?
• Did you make any mistakes that you need to avoid next time?
• Did you learn anything?
• Based on the above, would you make the same trip again?

Nice post

[Midwest Player]

Another is a drive (4 hours) to get to a city and I get there at 2:00 p.m., drive to a couple of casinos and play till Midnight, catch a few hours of sleep and drive back the next morning. I assume I can get about 6 hours of table time. the cost is about $60 in Gas, $60 for motel or $120.

This is the kind of trip you should take, but you need to make it at least a two night trip. Why do you have to get back the next day when your flying trips are four days? This trip is not worth it for just one day. You have to make it at least a two night trip for it to be worth while otherwise you are just playing exhausted.

There are members on this board who are from your state. Hopefully they will reach out and offer some guidance to you for casinos that are on the other side of your state.

This year I made 2 day, 3 day, 4 day, and 5 day trips. The majority of my trips this year were only two day trips and my biggest trip win for this year occurred on a 2 day trip. This year two thirds of my trips had wins over $1,000 and one third had wins under $1,000. I don't know how this happened, but so far no losing trips for the year which I don't think ever happened before. However, losing trips are not a waste of time they are part of the game and happen often.

[Ryemo]

How about this Zee...

What if I told you that if you go on this 3 day trip, you’re going to make $500/day ($1,500 total). In order to make that money though, you’ll need to play 5 hours of blackjack each day. You’re going to approximately spend $75 in gas for the trip and spend 4 hrs driving each way to get to your destination (8 hrs total). You’ve got some food and room comps so you won’t spend any money on rooms but you might need to buy a few meals out of your own pocket, so you’ll probably spend roughly $40 for grub. The rest should be comped. You’ve got 2 free bets that have a face value of $65 each, but because this state doesn’t pay AND replace, the EV is only worth 50%. So the two free bets are worth $65 all together. Keep in mind this will also put an additional 480 Miles on your vehicle, so you’ll be 1/8 closer to needing an oil change by the end of your trip. And I know you feel bad stiffing the dealer, so you’re going to need to tip $10/hr for every hour of blackjack you play. So let’s recap:

Revenue (Let’s call it EV) = +$1,500
Gas Expense = -$75
Food Expense = -$40
Free bets = +$65
Room Expense = $0
Miles Driven = 480 Miles
Time Spent Driving = 8 hrs
Oil Change = -$6.25 (1/8 of $50 oil change)
Dealer tokes = -$150 ($10/hr for 15 hrs)

Let’s add it up: Grand total = +1,293.75 (or $431.25 of net profit for each day of your trip)

If I planned out your next trip like such, do you think you could figure out on your own if it was still worth it for you, or would you still like me to hold your hand?

[Romes]

Gronbog gave you fantastic advice. If you've counted cards for any length, you'll know that you're going to lose ~50% of the trips you go, in the long run. You really should base all of your results off of either EV or CE, as that tells you how much work you actually accomplished.

Think of it this way: Every time you play blackjack, counting and playing properly to have an advantage, you're basically adding your EV, even down to the pennies per hand, to a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. So slowly, as you play over time, this pot builds and builds in EV. Your day to day transactions, sessions, trips, whatever you want to call them, are all MEANINGLESS in the short term. Only when you've hit N(0), the long run, again whatever you want to call it, will you be able to realize your advantage and collect on your pot of gold. So until then, ignore your "+1000 this trip - yay" and your "-1000 this trip, omg waste of life!" because so long as you're building EV, you ARE doing something productive... adding to that pot of gold that you'll eventually collect on.

[DSchles]

Here's the problem with every single piece of (excellent) advice that has ever been offered to Zee for the years that he's been on this site. It's all a monumental waste of time. The proof? You're still saying the same things today that you've been saying for years, and Zee has demonstrated, ad nauseam, that he's emotionally incapable of following any of the advice he's received.

Every couple of weeks, he finds a new way to put new spin on some old, time-worn question or concept that has been asked and answered a thousand times on this site. It isn't clear to me if he does it for sport, or if he does it because he genuinely has a concern, but it really doesn't matter, and that's because he's still going to sweat every bet he makes, play tired, quit when he shouldn't, play when he shouldn't, etc. Zee is not emotionally equipped to play this game properly, and, in my opinion, everyone here does him a disservice by playing into his idealized world where, eventually, he'll do everything the way he ought to. It's never going to happen because, deep down, he doesn't want it to happen.

It shouldn't take someone years to learn how to bet and approach this game properly. This isn't brain surgery. That Zee still asks the kinds of questions he does means that either a) he's playing with all of us; b) he is incapable of learning; or c) he understands what is being said but is completely emotionally ill-equipped to act on the advice. You're all entitled to speculate as to which of the above may be true, but my opinion is that it's (c).

Don

[ZeeBabar]

Here's the problem with every single piece of (excellent) advice that has ever been offered to Zee for the years that he's been on this site. It's all a monumental waste of time. The proof? You're still saying the same things today that you've been saying for years, and Zee has demonstrated, ad nauseam, that he's emotionally incapable of following any of the advice he's received.

Every couple of weeks, he finds a new way to put new spin on some old, time-worn question or concept that has been asked and answered a thousand times on this site. It isn't clear to me if he does it for sport, or if he does it because he genuinely has a concern, but it really doesn't matter, and that's because he's still going to sweat every bet he makes, play tired, quit when he shouldn't, play when he shouldn't, etc. Zee is not emotionally equipped to play this game properly, and, in my opinion, everyone here does him a disservice by playing into his idealized world where, eventually, he'll do everything the way he ought to. It's never going to happen because, deep down, he doesn't want it to happen.

It shouldn't take someone years to learn how to bet and approach this game properly. This isn't brain surgery. That Zee still asks the kinds of questions he does means that either a) he's playing with all of us; b) he is incapable of learning; or c) he understands what is being said but is completely emotionally ill-equipped to act on the advice. You're all entitled to speculate as to which of the above may be true, but my opinion is that it's (c).

Don

First poor post from Don I have read in my 2-3 years on these forums. More often, he either addresses the question or he ignores it. I am sorry to know it bothers him. I am very simple. BJ is like my car. I became a good driver without knowing how to fix a flat or change a tire and have no interest in the inner workings of the car. Similarly, SCORE and NO and such are way above my head. I have learnt enough about playing BJ, an idea of BR, a spread I am comfortable with and I manage. I forget what I posted on what forum and when and most of my participation on forums is a stream of consciousness style of writing and if I have just returned from a losing trip I show my feelings and if I become uncertain, I ask (not try to do research or play with software). Same as I do when my car is pulling to the right or squealing.

Ryemo, when I drive the other side of the state, I have to pay for rooms and there are no free stuff for me.

Personal situations make it possible for just one 2-3 night trip a month. This, I take to LV at present. I have been there 3 times in the last three months and its been a win of $400 (slight loss if you consider expenses I incurred getting there and back), a win of $3400 (about $3000 after expenses) and a loss of $3700 (about $4k after expenses)

I could also go to Tunica but there are only two casinos of interest there and while I can go there for 2 nights (food and room comped), the drive now is 5 hours each way and about $ik miles on the car.

For me, LV is oddly cheaper to get to and back (thanks to Frontier airlines). Now, I am considering the other side of the state but is going for just one night and about 6-8 hours of play worth it? It costs a bit more to head to other destinations and I still can only go for 2-3 nights a trip.

In any case, I was trying to get a feel for what to consider in making such decisions.

[21forme]

First poor post from Don I have read in my 2-3 years on these forums

Don has the patience of a saint. If you've gotten to him, there's nothing more to say.

[RCJH]

Personal situations make it possible for just one 2-3 night trip a month. This, IFor me, LV is oddly cheaper to get to and back (thanks to Frontier airlines). Now, I am considering the other side of the state but is going for just one night and about 6-8 hours of play worth it? It costs a bit more to head to other destinations and I still can only go for 2-3 nights a trip.

In any case, I was trying to get a feel for what to consider in making such decisions.

Zee, go to the casino with the train. I promise you there will be freebies galore for your next trip, if you're talking about RFB, that is. If it's ladies for hire you're after, go to Gilligan's.

Gas: $100
Food: 0. Ask for a comp for food after an hour of play.
Room: $120 max if you have to pay rack rate at a casino or local Holiday Inn Express.

Wait for next month's offers, and repeat.

[DSchles]

"First poor post from Don I have read in my 2-3 years on these forums."

It wasn't a "poor" post; it was a negative post. There's a difference. It was a good post, but it said negative things.

"More often, he either addresses the question or he ignores it. I am sorry to know it bothers him."

It doesn't bother me. It bothers me that others think you can be rehabilitated and spend so much time (and bandwidth) trying. I was simply expressing my opinion. I don't think you have the emotional stability to play the game properly. That isn't being unkind; it's being honest and realistic. If you can't accept results for the meaningless blips that they are and just PLAY without agonizing over every hand, you are much better off not playing at all.

Don

[RCJH]

It bothers me that others think you can be rehabilitated and spend so much time (and bandwidth) trying. I was simply expressing my opinion. I don't think you have the emotional stability to play the game properly. That isn't being unkind; it's being honest and realistic. Don

+1

Zee, I think you need to play because it makes you feel important. The dealers fawn over you, because you toke. The casinos give you free room and board, so you feel like a high roller. When you can't play, you come on here (and other boards) and ask basic questions to feed your need for attention. I'm also not trying to be mean, but that's realistically how you appear.

That personality (hipsters would say you're "emo") doesn't mix well with live casino play. You let the casinos sucker you into giving them your money. True AP play is an investment. I could put all my money into a mutual fund, but I get more earnings by playing blackjack and splitting it up. I don't have the personality to manage my own stocks--so I invest in mutual funds, and let smarter, more patient people manage it. You don't have the personality to play blackjack for money. If you want to take $100 to your local casino, or $10,000 to Vegas, be my guest. There are worse faults. But if you're honest with yourself about your skills, abilities, and comportment, you know a good investment for your money isn't blackjack.

[Midwest Player]

Personal situations make it possible for just one 2-3 night trip a month. This, I take to LV at present. I have been there 3 times in the last three months and its been a win of $400 (slight loss if you consider expenses I incurred getting there and back), a win of $3400 (about $3000 after expenses) and a loss of $3700 (about $4k after expenses)

Okay, I see the wife laid down the law. No sex if more than one 2 to 3 night trip a month. That is okay. Skip your Vegas trip and go to the other side of your state. Make it a three night trip instead of two.

I always wondered why you go on weekends when you say you want time with your son. Isn't he in school on weekdays. It seems weekends would offer more free time to be with him.