"insurance" bet on any dealer upcard

**chucky baby** · 10-21-2017, 07:58 AM

If you can make an "insurance bet", meaning a bet on likelihood of dealer's second card being a ten, what more of an advantage overall do you have compared to an ordinary insurance bet? In this particular instance the casino allows this bet anytime the dealer's upcard is a 7,8,9,10,ace...in other words every time the ten would give a pat hand.

Thanks for your help

Chucky baby

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 10-21-2017, 08:25 AM

Of course, any ace-neutral count will tell
you, with fine accuracy, if the likelihood of
the dealer's down card being a 10 > 33%

The sole advantage is the high frequency of
being offered this 'Insurance'bet 54% of the
time at ZERO T.C. and higher as the T.C. and
the attendant bets grow larger.

The only drawback:
To avoid heat, one will NEED to take 'partial'
insurance for small amounts much of the time.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 10-21-2017, 08:29 AM

Originally Posted by moses

"What percentage are you wanting?"

33.33%

**chucky baby** · 10-21-2017, 08:37 AM

Thanks guys...I know how to calc the particular advantage of the insurance bet but what I don't know is the overall advantage of the 'insurance bet' based on frequencies etc

Chucky baby

**chucky baby** · 10-21-2017, 08:46 AM

Better than that, Moses..if the dealer has an upcard of 7, you can make a bet that the dealer doesn't get a ten as second card, irrespective of your own hand total. I've probably misled you by using the term insurance...it doesn't insure your own hand in any way.

**Three** · 10-21-2017, 09:17 AM

From the closed duplicate thread:

Different counts have different EVs specifically from insurance. It would approximately multiply your count's EV from insurance by 8. Insurance is the most important index but can be used by the casino's to catch counters. It is not that effective because the dealer doesn't get an ace up enough. But if you had an insurance decision 61.5% of the time instead of 7.7% of the time they would catch you fast and very effectively.

**Three** · 10-21-2017, 09:19 AM

He didn't ask how to play insurance. He asked how much would the rule add to your advantage.

Originally Posted by chucky baby

If you can make an "insurance bet", meaning a bet on likelihood of dealer's second card being a ten, what more of an advantage overall do you have compared to an ordinary insurance bet? In this particular instance the casino allows this bet anytime the dealer's upcard is a 7,8,9,10,ace...in other words every time the ten would give a pat hand.

**chucky baby** · 10-21-2017, 10:04 AM

Thanks Three...

You say it would increase ev 8-fold...wow!!...it might be worthwhile to count using a ten-count, like the old Roberts count...for myself I will continue to use my own multiparameter count which gives a 100% correct ten count....in this particular casino heat is not an issue

Thanks mucho
Chucky baby

**Norm** · 10-21-2017, 10:08 AM

Could be the first time the Roberts Count was mentioned here.

**Three** · 10-21-2017, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by moses

This is why I ask if I was missing something. For instance, one casino will allow you to bet if it's a 10 or not. But you cannot bet more than your original bet.

They only let me bet half my original bet. I wish I could bet more like Moses does.

**21forme** · 10-21-2017, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by moses

Huh?

Above, you said, "But you cannot bet more than your original bet. "

**DSchles** · 10-21-2017, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by Three

From the closed duplicate thread:

Different counts have different EVs specifically from insurance. It would approximately multiply your count's EV from insurance by 8. Insurance is the most important index but can be used by the casino's to catch counters. It is not that effective because the dealer doesn't get an ace up enough. But if you had an insurance decision 61.5% of the time instead of 7.7% of the time they would catch you fast and very effectively.

You can't state what the insurance edge is without stating the spread you're using. In BJA3, for the I18, I give one such value -- out of many -- and it is 0.117%. That would become 0.936% -- an unthinkable edge.

Don

**chucky baby** · 10-22-2017, 06:20 AM

To Three...just a comment in passing..
You say, correctly, that the insurance bet for aces is not significant re. ev, but...way back when...I believe that when Thorp first started playing bj he used a ten-count for insurance, and the casinos in Nevada freaked out and withdrew the insurance option for a while!! Of course it was on single deck play...

Chucky baby