How Much Would You Bet in This Situation

[moses]

The best defense is a good offense! The above is gibberish. "Swings" are variance, whether you like it or not. You don't get to change mathematical concepts just because it suits your fancy. And for God's sake, PLEASE stop telling us about your unique way of playing the game -- which isn't blackjack, by the way. It's getting terribly old, and no one believes it anyway.

Don

Wait! Did Coach Don S just use a sports metaphor? In the lyrics of Johhny Nash. "It's gonna be a bright bright bright sunshine day"

[Three]

The best defense is a good offense! The above is gibberish. "Swings" are variance, whether you like it or not. You don't get to change mathematical concepts just because it suits your fancy. And for God's sake, PLEASE stop telling us about your unique way of playing the game -- which isn't blackjack, by the way. It's getting terribly old, and no one believes it anyway.

Don

When I have talked about this I have repeatedly said it is not BJ. In this thread said that. I thought this was an AP forum but i guess everything is just going to be the same old stuff we have discussed ad nauseous since the site opened. The answer to any thread started should be to list the 2 dozen threads that have already said the same thing over and over.

The only ones that believe it are the ones doing it. That should tell you something about about how little understanding the average AP has and the so called experts, even though I explained very thoroughly many times, and the effectiveness of smoothing the ride to the long run in a game that is traditionally extremely high variance. I wish I could say I was a genius for figuring it out but it was a series of fortunate choices for unrelated reasons and the software developing slower than the applications which caused suboptimal betting to be used in some situations, both of which tamed the ride, until the software caught up (Note variance didn't change much. You just went from $20K swings to $5K swings. That meant I could cut my trip roll to less than half of whatI needed before). Everything had to be studied to figure out why the ride to the long run was tamed in such a wild variance game. Eventually I figured out all the reasons, or at least most of them. You never know what you haven't discovered yet. When I try to share stuff or steer other researchers in a new direction I just get shit for it every single time so the secrets will go to the grave with those that know them.

[BoSox]

The only ones that believe it are the ones doing it.

When I try to share stuff or steer other researchers in a new direction I just get shit for it every single time so the secrets will go to the grave with those that know them.

Do you speak for the others, too? Come on, at least you should train Ustonzen.

[Three]

Do you speak for the others, too? Come on, at least you should train Ustonzen.

Why? I don't even know who he is. I have team managers in the know asking me to train their best. Like I have always said, as long as we can play unmolested in casinos there is no need to train anyone. Once I can't play anymore I will train a select group. There is so much more to it than just the counting and statistics. The valuable info only exists in my head.

[SpikeBJ]

The valuable info only exists in my head.

Member "200%" said it was in the matrix. Hmmm, matrix or Three's head.

[Freightman]

Member "200%" said it was in the matrix. Hmmm, matrix or Three's head.

Perhaps, we should ask.........Morpheus.

https://youtu.be/gDadfh0ZdBM

[moses]

See the game as opportunities to improve your position. It doesn't mean you will. It just means you recognize and take advantage of the hands.

[Ustonzen]

Do you speak for the others, too? Come on, at least you should train Ustonzen.

If you build it, they will come

[21forme]

It's amazing how much information can be conveyed in a single, carefully constructed sentence!

Don

Another way of saying, "if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit." :-)

[Ustonzen]

I dont think t's lying hes just protecting his game
If you go back through the archives you will see hundreds of posts by him that were voted helpful multiple times over and many people - most of whom no longer post - credit him with being one of the most knowledable/helpful posters.
The board has changed a lot in the last years - theres less drama and more snark and whether or not that is a good or bad thing is an excercise i leave to the reader

[G Man]

Don't have time nor patience to read 4 pages of ....
Will simply say how I would do it.

Take 75% of your bankroll to account for variance.
Then take the amount corresponding to your Kelly fraction
Finally, bet 13% of that amount.

Exemple for a $100K bankroll
You take only $75 000 (because 100/1.3325 = roughly 75)
Say you play to a 1/4 Kelly, you now have $18 750
You bet 13% of it corresponding to $2400 or $2500.

This is how it's done at the table.

[Midwest Player]

Don't have time nor patience to read 4 pages of ....
Will simply say how I would do it.

Take 75% of your bankroll to account for variance.
Then take the amount corresponding to your Kelly fraction
Finally, bet 13% of that amount.

Exemple for a $100K bankroll
You take only $75 000 (because 100/1.3325 = roughly 75)
Say you play to a 1/4 Kelly, you now have $18 750
You bet 13% of it corresponding to $2400 or $2500.

This is how it's done at the table.

When table is only $200 max not much to worry about concerning your bankroll.

[Norm]

I guess I can't talk about things I am able to do since can't use terms that apply to the short term in the way I am trying to use them. Sorry to this that might benefit from a smoother ride to the long run. The variance doesn't change much. The swings do. But there is no terminology I am allowed to use to differentiate between them. I explain I will use variance as a long term term and swings as a short term term but catch shit for trying to make terms that would explain something that has never been looked into and publicized. Either I am the only one that can do it or the others are smart enough not to try to share it. I have learned that sharing advancements is a bad thing on so many levels. I will try to be smarter in the future. Lesson learned again. Hopefully I will stop trying to be so helpful to others this time.

I may have to move this to the disadvantge forum.