Hello!
If I have the edge 0.29% (great rules) over the casino playing only basic strategy and bet 700$ on seven spots (100$ per hand) how much I can expect to earn per hour on long run? How big bankroll I need if the ROR is 1%?
Hello!
If I have the edge 0.29% (great rules) over the casino playing only basic strategy and bet 700$ on seven spots (100$ per hand) how much I can expect to earn per hour on long run? How big bankroll I need if the ROR is 1%?
Last edited by Sprinter; 09-21-2017 at 02:14 PM.
How fast are you playingOriginally Posted by Sprinter
The game is going to slow down, though basic, you should be able to get 400 hands over hour all 7 squares, with good dealer.
400 hands at $100 =$40000 action per hour at .29% edge = $116 per hour.
Interesting in the ror. Never calculated on flat bet. May get to it later.
- Six decks
- Dealer stands on soft 17
- Double On Hard/Soft 9-11
- Player may double after a split
- No-peek (player loses total bet, including after doubling or splitting, if dealer has blackjack)
- Player can resplit to 4 hands
- Player can resplit aces
- Multiple draws after ace split
- Blackjack pays 3:2
- Insurance pays 2:1
- Early surrender against 10
- 6-card Charlie automatically pays 2 to 1
- 777 pays 3 to 2 automatically
- 75-80% penetration
- 1 burn card
Curious. This is a real casino or online? Would you not count at all, perhaps, say, just to take insurance from time to time?
1% ROR isn't very realistic. Even 5% requires $223,000 BR. But if you can play this forever, and they maintain the rules (two big "ifs"), a well-motivated person might double such a BR in, say, a year. (If you don't go crazy first!)
Don
Real casino but I'm not playing yet. For now the rules are 7 years "old" and have not changed. I played at home 1641 games (about 126 400 hands) on seven spots and now I have $103 050. Can this be considered a long run? What is the long run in this case if I only play BS, how much hands? The biggest swing was $39 300 (68 games, 5236 hands) when I win, and when I lost $38 050 (60 games, 4620 hands). Can be swing bigger than $40 000? How bigger?
If I have BR $60 000 how is ROR?
I will count the cards but only RC not TC, because I have advantage 70-80% during the game in long term.
Last edited by Sprinter; 09-22-2017 at 04:36 AM.
Do you own CVData yet, and have you modeled this game? I have a somewhat similar opportunity (edge wise). You can easily determine what your n0, optimal bet, etc is at this game.
Also, if you haven't already reached out to Vagabond, you should do so. He can help you a lot with this game.
I have but I think it's demo version https://www.qfit.com/index.htm and I don't understand all this settings in CVData.
Last edited by Sprinter; 09-24-2017 at 05:26 AM.
"Real casino but I'm not playing yet. For now the rules are 7 years 'old' and have not changed."
That's shocking. How have the counters not burned it out yet?
"I played at home 1641 games (about 126 400 hands)"
What's a "game"? From the above, seems like only 11 rounds of 7 hands each. Do you mean "shoes"?
"on seven spots and now I have $103 050."
You were somewhat lucky. Since e.v. is only $36,656, and I calculate the s.d. to be $73,907, your win was about +1 s.d., which happens about 16% of the time.
"Can this be considered a long run?"
No. Some people consider the long run to be when a one-s.d. loss still leaves you at breakeven. It would take four times as many hands for that to be the case in your example, as e.v. would quadruple and s.d. would double, making the two numbers about the same. But others consider the long run to be equal to a two-s.d result, which would require NINE times the amount of hands you played.
"What is the long run in this case if I only play BS, how much hands?"
See above.
"The biggest swing was $39 300 (68 games, 5236 hands) when I win, and when I lost $38 050 (60 games, 4620 hands). Can swing be bigger than $40 000? How bigger?"
Those are very surprisingly large.
"If I have BR $60 000 how is ROR?"
More than 44%! Bad idea. Would drop to 20% (still too high) if you played for half stakes ($50) or doubled the bank to $120,000.
"I will count the cards but only RC not TC, because I have advantage 70-80% during the game in long term."
And if you're flat betting, and using BS, what will you do with the RC?
Don
"That's shocking. How have the counters not burned it out yet?"
Because it's a small country in Balkan and there are a few people in the casino, they don't know play BS, small casino etc...
"What's a "game"? From the above, seems like only 11 rounds of 7 hands each. Do you mean "shoes"?"
Yes.
"And if you're flat betting, and using BS, what will you do with the RC?"
Minus RC min bet, positive RC $100, $200, $300...but play one or two hands.
Last edited by Sprinter; 09-24-2017 at 04:08 AM.
This is something I could be interested in, if you're looking to team up against it to reduce RoR. Please message or email me [email protected]
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