Every now and then I read a thread about extreme negative or positive variance. I thought I would share one, which occurred in Atlantic City this past Friday, at Spanish 21. First, a note that blackjacks are less likely in this game (about 1 in 24, as opposed to about 1 in 21) than in regular blackjack, due to the lack of tens.
The count was sky-high (lots of 10-valued cards), and the ace side count was quite high as well. One other player at the table, and I put out two maximum bets. He put out a few dollars..... and I get a 20 and 16 against a queen. The count was high enough to surrender my 16 v Q (not a basic strategy play in Spanish), but before I had an opportunity to do so, the dealer flipped over a blackjack, and took our bets. The next hand was again two maximum bets, and I was dealt another stiff, along with an 11, with the dealer showing a jack. I pushed out money to double, as soon as I got the 11, but it was pushed back to me- the dealer had another blackjack. Argh! The ploppy got tired of playing, and announced he was sitting out a hand, leaving me in a beautiful heads-up spot with the dealer, with what was still (even after the two blackjacks) a very very high count. This time, two 20's- one of two picture cards, and one of an A9.... with the dealer showing an ace. Insurance was offered, but because there are no 10-valued cards in the game, it is almost never the right play to take insurance- and it wasn't in this case either. The dealer actually paused, sadly, before looking, almost as if we both knew what would happen.... and both of my bets were again collected upon the Jack of Spades appearing. Makes me want to knock out his only eye..... Two more big bets- and the first card to be dealt was then the yellow cut card, leaving no more (the count was still high for a big bet, though no longer for a maximum bet) hand to play.
Three straight blackjacks by the dealer, in a game where blackjacks don't happen very often. While I thought that was so crazy and unfortunate, it turns out, even with the effect of card-removal, that the chances of this happening are just about the same as losing 13 even-money bets in a game like roulette or baccarat. Around five years ago, someone on my block, who knew I enjoyed blackjack, told me about his fool-proof strategy to win at casinos. Bet on black $5, then double the bet each time he loses. I told him the Martingale doesn't work, and he disputed that- told me that if he brings $40K to the casino, he would be fine. The high-limit room had a maximum bet of $20K (or he could arrange such a limit by request- I don't recall) on the outside bets. Around two months later, on perhaps his seventh casino trip, he told me he did in fact lose 13 bets in a row, and lost the $40K (though he was probably up a decent amount prior to that, winning $5 on each progression until that point). I guess over the course of enough Spanish 21, I'll find the same happen to me, and am thankful to just lose six maximum bets. Stupid variance.
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