What Count System Do You Use

[moses]

Hard to believe how much everyone is struggling with this issue. Wong Halves. Perfect Insurance.
The indices for Hi Lo are the same. So run your Sims to determine the best betting strategy and streamlined approach to your selection of indices.

If you lose track on your second count of Perfect Insurance, not a big deal because you are no worse off than if you didn't count it in the first place. But if you lose track of the Aces in Hi Opt II then you are screwed and playing strictly with PE data.

If fatique sets in then drop back to Hi Lo. But consider this game is about your skill and your money. Now seriously consider how much you want to put into it and how much you can expect to get out of it.

Amazingly, Norm has the tools to answer these questions and allow you to be the best that you can be at "your" game.

Top engineers have the ability to understand complex equations. But the best ones can make complex simple again.

Stanford Wong, Don S. and Norm epitomize the above statement.

[NB10]

Hard to believe how much everyone is struggling with this issue. Wong Halves. Perfect Insurance.
The indices for Hi Lo are the same. So run your Sims to determine the best betting strategy and streamlined approach to your selection of indices.

If you lose track on your second count of Perfect Insurance, not a big deal because you are no worse off than if you didn't count it in the first place. But if you lose track of the Aces in Hi Opt II then you are screwed and playing strictly with PE data.

If fatique sets in then drop back to Hi Lo. But consider this game is about your skill and your money. Now seriously consider how much you want to put into it and how much you can expect to get out of it.

Amazingly, Norm has the tools to answer these questions and allow you to be the best that you can be at "your" game.

Hi Moses, T3 posted above that HO2/ASC performs 15-20% better than Hilo. Apologies if this has been asked before but do you know the differential between Wong Halves/Perfect Insurance and Hilo? Also, what exactly do you mean by Perfect Insurance?

[DSchles]

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm not a fan (nor is Norm) of the representative decks approach to doing things, as using a single example as a stand-in for all such possible examples has often proven inaccurate and unreliable in sims. And while your observations may apply in those situations where the counts have little in common, that isn't the case for Halves and Hi-Lo, so although you may have inferred some generality in my remarks, all I really wanted to do was answer the specific question at hand.

Don

[DSchles]

Bet sizing has to do with PE. Poor PE will produce higher variance which will reduce your optimal bet for your BR, RoR and spread. When you bet less you win less. I would think you would understand how to determine optimal bet and see that what reduces variance makes your optimal bet more. Hiopt2/ASC gets a 15-20% gain over Hilo. 5% of that is the difference of the systems and the other 10-15% is from being able to bet more aggressively due to decreasing variance. This is why some say the gain is only 5%. They erroneously use the same bets for both systems so much of the gain shows up as reduction of RoR. If both systems bet optimally for the same RoR, spread and BR the gain is tripled or quadrupled in shoe games due to increased optimal bets. I guess you could call that gain from betting but that gain is only there because of reduced variance from more accurate decisions.

If it's somehow intuitive to you that using indices decreases variance, that isn't at all intuitive to me. All the standing indices for stiff hands create more variance, not less. When you stand with 16 or less, you create the certainty that the hand wins or loses but doesn't push. That increases variance. When you use indices to double and split hands that, with BS, would not be adding that extra money, you also increase variance.

So I'd be interested as to why you think using a system with more indices or with a higher PE than another system somehow or other equates to a reduction in variance.

Don

[moses]

Hi Moses, T3 posted above that HO2/ASC performs 15-20% better than Hilo. Apologies if this has been asked before but do you know the differential between Wong Halves/Perfect Insurance and Hilo? Also, what exactly do you mean by Perfect Insurance?

Perfect Insurance is when you know exactly how many tens have been played/remain vs all the other cards. I will let Don S give the formula.

Of course SCORE depends on your game selection and other considerations. But Wong Halves runs neck and neck with Hi Opt ii and that's without perfect insurance.

[Gramazeka]

Bet sizing has to do with PE.

Maybe BC ?

[Gramazeka]

It's not a shot. Just a fact. Doesn't mean that you shouldn't use HiLo, as SCORE isn't the only factor. But, let's not claim there's no difference between strategies.

This fact ( 15-20 % ) is valid only for computer simulations ! They take into account the same speed of hands and optimal computer bets ! In a real game everything is different !

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Maybe BC ?"

The greater the number of decks, the greater the importance of Bet-Sizing.
The less the number of decks, the greater the importance of Playing Efficiency.

If you can think logically, you are now asking yourself ~ Where do B C and P E equalize.
The answer is probably between 4 decks with deep pen' and 3 decks with comparable
pen' [and duplicate rules]

Furthermore, you may be incorrectly concluding that the shoe games that you are plundering are best
served by a count with Very High-Betting Correlation, but best of all is to be high on both B.C. and P.E.

[Gramazeka]

The greater the number of decks, the greater the importance of Bet-Sizing.
The less the number of decks, the greater the importance of Playing Efficiency.

If you can think logically, you are now asking yourself ~ Where do B C and P E equalize.
The answer is probably between 4 decks with deep pen' and 3 decks with comparable
pen' [and duplicate rules]

Furthermore, you may be incorrectly concluding that the shoe games that you are plundering are best
served by a count with Very High-Betting Correlation, but best of all is to be high on both B.C. and P.E.

I will repeat the question, how can the parameter PE affect the size of the bet? I have always believed that this is a parameter BC !

PE vs BC the answer is between one and two decks.

[Gramazeka]

Sir. I view sims to impove my game. Verite defines my game because it defines me. I always figure a 10% differential in SCORE is worth consideration. I'm thinking Don S is more along the lines of 6 to 8%. Like a bum wisdom tooth, I'm still trying to pull it out of him.

Set the parameter 102 hands per hour from the Hi Lo and 100 with Hi Opt2. Then compare. This is the first time I justified the right change.
Second? Optimal bets on the computer are rarely true in real life. Where you put 325 chips optimal bet with Hi Opt- i put 300 chips with Hi Lo. I will win you by speed because of the long payment of the dealer.

All understand ? My english good?

[DSchles]

"I will repeat the question, how can the parameter PE affect the size of the bet? I have always believed that this is a parameter BC!"

What they're trying to say is that if PE is increased, that increases your overall edge in playing the game. And, if that edge increases, you are permitted to bet more. And that would be true as long as the increase in edge from a superior PE is not negated by an increase in variance as well. Three seems to think that variance would, somehow, automatically decrease, but I can't imagine why that would be.

Don

[Gramazeka]

Don, you know that this is nonsense. Let them forget about their PE in shoes game.

[Gramazeka]

You lose track of the count? You shouldn't be in the casino if that is the case.

We expect from you a detailed answer on all issues...