I have. The math says it's near -4 sigma.
Just curious.
Hmmm. 200 Max Bets on a $25 shoe game with good rules means spreading (politely) $25 to $200
and $200 X 200 = $40,000 during a "prolonged losing streak." In my experience, this "feels" more
like 2 SD than 4 SD. That is to say, yes, it can and it does happen, which is why most card counters
have serious bankroll concerns when they do not have $100,000 cash "behind them." Dropping nearly
half of their cash means that they are no longer able to (rationally) handle the aforementioned spread
in a $25 game. In the experience of (most) card counters, they will be crestfallen at that point, as their
R.O.R. will simply explode to far more than double. If they have to drop to a $15 table they will have to
cope with tables full of annoying ploppies and possibly worse rules! I say that this is depressing as the
reality is that the counter feels that s/he is 'cursed', cheated, or that they have simply failed badly in
their endeavors to win significant money and this results in an assault upon their fragile egos, as young
card counters have tied their success at blackjack to their self-esteem. THUS, the requisite emotional
stability that is a foundational key to success may have been lacking.
Flash; With a 1-24 unit spread and a duration of 270 hours, it's -4 SD.Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash
Game is not good, but convenient. It's 6 dks, H17, DAS, RSA and a 1.8 to 2.0 deck cutoff (the old horizontal cut card flat across the top of the shoe).
Wow - 200 max bet loss in 270 hours! You've experienced this and are still playing? Honestly, if I had a run like that, I'd either quit (probably half way there) and/or hire a private investigator to check out the games I was playing to see if I was being cheated. I certainly wouldn't even think about questioning my gaming skill because that factor is miniscule compared to the variance you've experienced.
The odds of a -4 SD event are about 1 in 31,500. So if you're logging 810 hours per year (three 270-hour sessions per year), you would expect this unfortunate occurrence to happen about once every 10,500 years! (Global warming will kill us all off long before then). Looking at it another way, if you take a group of 31,500 serious blackjack players who all play a 270-hour session, one of them would have this kind of luck.
What would be even more amazing would be if someone responded to your post and claimed that they too had a run like that....
Came close to a run like that a few years back. In addition to the unbelievably bad run of cards, I likely wasn't on my A game either. The run started at an ATH point. I had just been told, that a surgery which I needed, delayed for quite a while due to risk factors, would go forward. I was also told to get my affairs in order. This was not due to Complexity of surgery, but rather to risk factors. never knew for sure it it was affecting me, but I never discounted it either.Wow - 200 max bet loss in 270 hours! You've experienced this and are still playing? Honestly, if I had a run like that, I'd either quit (probably half way there) and/or hire a private investigator to check out the games I was playing to see if I was being cheated. I certainly wouldn't even think about questioning my gaming skill because that factor is miniscule compared to the variance you've experienced.
The odds of a -4 SD event are about 1 in 31,500. So if you're logging 810 hours per year (three 270-hour sessions per year), you would expect this unfortunate occurrence to happen about once every 10,500 years! (Global warming will kill us all off long before then
What would be even more amazing would be if someone responded to your post and claimed that they too had a run like that....
On the other side of the bell curve, I've had a win streak, which in terms of dollars, easily exceeded the loss just described. That may have been 5 sigma. Not even sure of how to calculate it. It absolutely crushed, 3 months running, any previous month by significant margins. The run continued for another 2 months on top of that, earning only 10-12 k per month. I played a lot in those days.
Freight; How close and over how many hours? Very curious.
Note that this result constitutes 4.5% of the total betting volume. Even a typical ploppy playing to a -1.5% EV and spreading this wildly for 270 hours needs a -2.5 SD variance to get that same result (still a 160-1 shot).
First, I should have qualified that the loss was the equivalent of 200 max bets - it wasnt 200 max bets as such. Loss was over 300 hours, average 100 hours per month, give or take, playing most afternoons. I had one stretch of 1-2 wins over 20 sessions. It was really rough. I would suggest a 2% loss on total betting volume, arrived at using $100 as an average bet at 100 hands per hour. CVCX suggested I was over 3 SD. I played to a virtual 0 Ror. Surgery was done, did not play during recovery period, and normal win patters reemerge. I lost my last 2 local play spots that year.
The interesting question, and one that I'm not sure what the answer really is - does state of mind affect performance (which I think it does), and if so, to what degree (that's what I don't know).
Now, the most interesting point of all - the reverse side - an unbelievable win streak. With prior max month revenues in the 10-12k range, to post 3 monthly wins of 34.5, 27.5, and 22k . Same betting levels at that time. Or, a crossover of betting levels covering 16 consecutive plus months, which included one full year of no losing months.
I thought I was good then, think I'm better now, though play far less. I've rambled more so than I normally wood - moral - don't be a smart ass - don't think you're to good for the math to affect you - when the shit hits the fan, it stinks like no tomorrow.
Freight; Same here. The "max bets" term was used as an overall measuring metric.
So were you undaunted by that? Or did the record cause you to examine all you could?
I'd had a couple of 100 or 110 max bet losing spells in past decades, but nothing worse.
I'd be lying if I said it didn't bother me - it did. It was a 60k, not chump change. However, it wasn't enough of a loss to cause me to resize. Bankroll for blackjack, in my case kept separate from all other assets, was still formidable. I had years of records upon which to reflect. I knew my win rates per hour over my entire journey, as well as win percentage. I knew what the numbers would reflect during average runs, superlative runs, and for that matter, when things when into the toilet.
I had one worse, in proportion, downturn, which occured in my first year of record keeping. My massive $4500 bankroll, which included $600 of initial seed money, was bludgeoned with a 2000 downturn over, I think, 6 weeks. I was more upset by that than I was over the 60k. Clearly, my maturity as a player had grown.
I don't try to reinvent the wheel. I listen well to those who have laid the groundwork - Wong, Thorpe, Snyder, Schlesinger, etc. I have absolute faith in the math, with the skills I've developed, and the realization that for as much as I know, there is still a great deal that I don't. It's been an interesting ride.
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