tough weekend

[weballinoutacontro]

down 27.8 max bets over this past weekend. smfh. hurts a lot emotionally/psychologically when I'd been running so well. I'm still pretty new to this too. I was playing about 80% of my time on H17 DAS RSA NMSE no surrender double deck, penetration often at least 70% or more dealer dependent. Played probably 18 hours total between maybe 5-6 casinos. A couple times got down to probably like 10-15 cards remaining. Spreading 10:1, no heat so I play pretty much all Hard indexes up to +5, other than not splitting 10s. My only cover is small bet variations to fit the vibe of the table, letting pushes ride, stuff like that

rough man. I was net up in my BJ by probably about 22 max bets. So basically one weekend wiped away everything. Only saving grace was going up about 400 on holdem and +40ish freeplay video poker

Just felt like I lost EVERY max bet I'd make. Feels bad man

I don't think I did anything wrong.. didn't lose count, I didn't tilt and bet on a bad count or anything like that (and nor do I ever really)..

One thing is I only remember probably 1-2 shoes with a huge count, like +10 TC or higher. Mostly just a lot of max or close to max bets around +3 to +5 TC and would continually lose them.

I really don't think I did anything wrong.... just rolled bad af...




not really any point here, just venting... lost a little motivation to get back add it. Except for I forgot to cash in my $40 freeplay video poker ticket so I suppose I have to go back soon

[stopgambling]

everyone thinks they don't lose count , i played a long side counters with somewhat similar system and i have seen both of us or them were very different in bet ramp , meaning someone is making mistakes. i am sure i have made some before and nowadays . cause of fatigues , distraction, overly confident ?

[stopgambling]

your case is very likely variance but to think one don't make mistakes is not being realistic.

[lij45o6]

down 27.8 max bets over this past weekend. smfh. hurts a lot emotionally/psychologically when I'd been running so well. I'm still pretty new to this too. I was playing about 80% of my time on H17 DAS RSA NMSE no surrender double deck, penetration often at least 70% or more dealer dependent. Played probably 18 hours total between maybe 5-6 casinos. A couple times got down to probably like 10-15 cards remaining. Spreading 10:1, no heat so I play pretty much all Hard indexes up to +5, other than not splitting 10s. My only cover is small bet variations to fit the vibe of the table, letting pushes ride, stuff like that

rough man. I was net up in my BJ by probably about 22 max bets. So basically one weekend wiped away everything. Only saving grace was going up about 400 on holdem and +40ish freeplay video poker

Just felt like I lost EVERY max bet I'd make. Feels bad man

I don't think I did anything wrong.. didn't lose count, I didn't tilt and bet on a bad count or anything like that (and nor do I ever really)..

One thing is I only remember probably 1-2 shoes with a huge count, like +10 TC or higher. Mostly just a lot of max or close to max bets around +3 to +5 TC and would continually lose them.

I really don't think I did anything wrong.... just rolled bad af...




not really any point here, just venting... lost a little motivation to get back add it. Except for I forgot to cash in my $40 freeplay video poker ticket so I suppose I have to go back soon

18 hours is a small sample of a feew thousand hands. No where near N_0, assuming Hi-Lo.

"One thing is I only remember probably 1-2 shoes with a huge count, like +10 TC or higher. Mostly just a lot of max or close to max bets around +3 to +5 TC and would continually lose them."

Just because we have a 1-3%, or hell..even a 5% edge does **NOT** mean we are going to win every hand at such high counts! It simply means that, as expected, for every unit we place under EV, we will be getting a fraction of that on top of our original bet after so many hands. Lets say you were betting 100 USD as your max. At this TC +10, assuming full indices, we are looking at around, what...? 9.6% +EV? Okay, so that mean that the dealer will win 0.096 times fewer than expected under this TC. Lets also assume that this TC +10 occurs roughly 1% of all times played. So, you are looking at making:

100.00 * 0.096 * 0.01 = 9.6*10^(-2) = 9.6 cents off that round.

Small potatoes compared to the big picture! Your return on investment for that hand is 100.096 for every time that TC +10 occurs, ceterus peribus. However, it adds up after +10,000 hands and more.

At 18 hours, heads up, single hand:

18 * 120 = 2160 hands played. At a 1.5% average advantage and a 5 unit average, you are making 187.0 units in that trip.

For Sigma_1 (66.7% of possible pop.): 1 * 1.18 * root(2160) * 5 = 274.2 unit statistical swing
For Sigma_2 (94.5% of possible pop.): 2 * 1.18 * root(2160) * 5 = 548.4 unit statistical swing

You mentioned 27.8 max bets. Under your 10:1 spread, that makes it 278 units. To find out the "negative swings" of the game, simply take the average trip win (that is the 187 we came up with), and subtract the standard deviation from that number:

187 - Sigma_1 = -87.2 units
187 - Sigma_2 = -361.2 units

If the above numbers are correct, you haven't even seen the worst yet, not even one standard deviation (Sigma_1).

There is little you can do to control statistical swings. Reducing your spread would help, but that would increase the time needed to double your bank. (Assuming you are time constrained)

Buckle up, this ride is going to get bumpy! Really bumpy!!!

[ZeeBabar]

I never thought I was counting wrong till another AP I do not know shared with me that he/she had been at my table and that at least on a couple of ocassions, at a TC-4/5, I had played my max bet. He/she suggested that I might have forgotten the TC was negative, just remembered it as 5 and bet max.

I think that when we play long sessions and are losing, we tend to make errors. However, for me and most others, it's harder to walk away when losing so we end up playing long sessions. Sometimes we get back on the plus side but man, it can get quite bad the other way as well.

[Freightman]

Shit happens. Been there. Trust in the math - make sure your skills are as good as you think they are, and do your best to improve.

[Bigdaddy]

Your bad weekend did not result from playing or betting errors. It resulted from variance. In that amount of time (1,500 - 2,000 rounds), you could have been a total dolt at the table and won huge, or you could have been James Grosjean and lost twice as much. There is absolutely no reason to doubt your retrospective analysis that your play was solid.

I find that lousy trips and losing streaks are one of the most frustrating parts of the game and undoubtedly the reason that most APs quit the endeavor. Every time I go through a rough patch, I start thinking about team play and how nice it would be to mitigate the variance somewhat. Just don't have the time right now...maybe someday when I'm retired...

My only suggestion would be to keep a log and keep your focus on getting to 100,000 rounds. You should be comfortably in the black by then, especially if you keep playing that DD game with 70% pen.

[jimmybond007]

You will experience even worse swings the more you play. Just keep playing through it. Myself and others on the forum have experienced even worse negative variance than that. It's expected but still does sting. You mentioned playing a deep cut DD game. That's a recipe for huge variance positive and negative.

Ditto on keeping good logs. When I hit some bad variance it always helps to look back at those logs and know you are a winning player. Once you get a sizeable amount of hours in your data will reveal if you are playing adequately and are indeed at an advantage.

[Stealth]

N0 is about 13,000 rounds at that game and you played about 1500-1800. If you are comfortable with your technical game then your discomfort with the results is rooted in not being fully aware of the possible range of results for the play. Do yourself a favor and get more familiar with standard deviation and Zscore so that you are not as surprised by large swings in either direction. If this is a concern, then track your play with enough data to produce cumulative EV, 1 & 2 SD and actual. This will begin to give you a much more accurate picture as you approach N0 for 2 standard deviations, which I consider the long term.

My guess is that your loss is between one and two standard deviations and could happen over 30% of the time if the sample size was statistically valid.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I have yet to see the neophyte Card Counter who actually
knows that at a pleasantly high True Count they are still
an underdog to win the upcoming hand. Our advantage
lies in BJ's, Doubles, Surrender, and Splits.