17 v 10 H17 Question

[Bushie]

Hi all.

I have a question regarding the EV of hard 17 v 10 and when it becomes positive/negative with H17, specifically when having doubled and double down rescue is allowed. What makes it tricky is that its NHC with OBBO, double 11 v 10/A is correct according to BS when above -1 TC, and BS double down rescue is surrender 12-16 v 8-A.

It seems counter-intuitive to me to actually play this hand through, in both positive and negative counts?

[Meistro123]

Is this for pontoon?

[Bushie]

Is this for pontoon?

Yes. But unfortunately Walker's book doesn't cover this hand in much detail. Its a bit odd considering that a doubled 17 vs A/10 is correct according to BS, but a natural 17 v A is hit. There's no double down rescue deviation listed whatsoever.

[abc4000]

You never double 11 vs A right? even at ver high count


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[Bushie]

You never double 11 vs A right? even at ver high count


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According to basic, yes you do.

12-16 vs 8-A is forfeit (double down rescue). It might sound weird to those used to having a hole card and dealer peek, but NHC usually comes with either BB+1 or OBBO. Essentially, if you double and the dealer has Pontoon, you only lose the original bet and any splits are taken. So it punishes splitting not doubling.

My mistake, but 17 v A is also forfeit. Which kinda leaves me puzzled as to why there's no deviation for 17 v 10 at all? The only deviations for not doubling 11 v 10/A is at -1 TC.

[abc4000]

According to basic, yes you do.

12-16 vs 8-A is forfeit (double down rescue). It might sound weird to those used to having a hole card and dealer peek, but NHC usually comes with either BB+1 or OBBO. Essentially, if you double and the dealer has Pontoon, you only lose the original bet and any splits are taken. So it punishes splitting not doubling.

My mistake, but 17 v A is also forfeit. Which kinda leaves me puzzled as to why there's no deviation for 17 v 10 at all? The only deviations for not doubling 11 v 10/A is at -1 TC.

Hi sorry i mean at s17 game, u dont double 11 vs A right. Is there any deviation for this?


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[stopgambling]

Isn't 12 vs 8 a double double just like a multi card 12 vs 7 ? it is in Spanish 21. also 10 vs 10/ A or 11 vs A / 10 is a "double" in high count cause of double down rescue and automatic win on 21.

[Bushie]

Isn't 12 vs 8 a double double just like a multi card 12 vs 7 ? it is in Spanish 21.

There's no redouble. Its double down one card only, double down on any number of cards.

[stopgambling]

oh ! that is why i said it's for spanish 21 which is slightly different. i remember there is some good virtue of pontoon though.

[Bushie]

oh ! that is why i said it's for spanish 21 which is slightly different. i remember there is some good virtue of pontoon though.

Its universally a lower HE game than European BJ by a good margin, and it remains largely unmolested by CSMs and 6:5 thievery.

Its either Pontoon or H17 BJ "Plus" dealt from a CSM in most casinos here in Aus...

[Meistro123]

Which kinda leaves me puzzled as to why there's no deviation for 17 v 10 at all?

Even in regular blackjack the late surrender index for 17 v T is incredibly high. So given that you are playing pontoon, where surrendering is even less attractive than normal (surrender favours situations where there are more ten value cards) it seems like the true count would have to be out of this world to make surrendering a more profitable (less unprofitable) play.

[Bushie]

Even in regular blackjack the late surrender index for 17 v T is incredibly high. So given that you are playing pontoon, where surrendering is even less attractive than normal (surrender favours situations where there are more ten value cards) it seems like the true count would have to be out of this world to make surrendering a more profitable (less unprofitable) play.

Makes sense. I still feel a little uneasy about it though. It's not the strongest doubled hand to have. Kinda leaves you regretting not forfeiting it, especially when you have a larger bet out.

Regarding surrender/forfeit in Pontoon/SP21, it actually is incredibly powerful. It increases your win rate by almost 50% when applied correctly iirc.

[Meistro123]

In normal blackjack the expected return for standing 17 v T is -.419. So this is a 20% improvement over surrendering which is of course -.5. Presumably the disparity between standing and surrendering (which is really what you are looking at with a forfeit) is even stronger for pontoon because in blackjack we are less inclined to surrender at negative counts. Of course you will sometimes hit 17 v T in pontoon because of the bonuses but that is irrelevant for the double down rescue / stay consideration which you are talking about.