Am I stupid or is this free money?

[Pariah]

I'm staying long-term at a hotel which gives me a voucher for $20-50 in chips every day. Additionally, If I actively play at a $30min table game for some amount of time (guessing 10-15 minutes), I can get comped to eat in their restaurant for free, which I enjoy.

I garnered interest in card counting and have been wonging into their game, mainly for free food, free drinks, and for fun trying to beat the house.

The game is as folllows:
8deck shoe, 2.5 decks cut off, split any 2 pair, 3:2 payout BJ, Aces split 1 card only, surrender available, double any two, hit soft 17, triple 7s pay 3:2. Wizard of odds has this game at about 0.57% player disadvantage.

My goal right now is to do this for fun and also to do it for farming points for the comps now and eventually even better comps, but I'm also interested in practicing because I am satisfied by the potential of beating the house.

I was able to memorize basic strategy in a couple weeks, and now have moved on to deviations.

Over the last couple of weeks I have been very lucky and am up $500 dollars with 0-$30-$60 bets only, never betting below a true 1 and betting at a true1 only every 1-3hands, only raising to $60 every hand above a true2 and also only after a win with $30 to make my play look natural. By my estimates, I should actually be up closer to only $50. I only use Hi-Lo count and I side count the Aces. I never read anywhere to side count Aces but it appears to me reasonable that the extra information is valuable. I also wondered if the casino would cheat by removing aces from their deck, which I found no evidence for so far.

I've somehow gotten a little bit of heat from wonging in with $30-60 bets and already talked to a suited man. In this situation, I tried to feign idiocy... Though it seems to have worked well.

If you are inclined, please tell me your personal thoughts about 1) my strategy described here, 2) the game offered here (is it a good game to play?), and 3) potential next steps I could take to improve my game beyond the simple hi-lo counting + basic strategy.

[ZeeBabar]

I'm staying long-term at a hotel which gives me a voucher for $20-50 in chips every day. Additionally, If I actively play at a $30min table game for some amount of time (guessing 10-15 minutes), I can get comped to eat in their restaurant for free, which I enjoy.

I garnered interest in card counting and have been wonging into their game, mainly for free food, free drinks, and for fun trying to beat the house.

The game is as folllows:
8deck shoe, 2.5 decks cut off, split any 2 pair, 3:2 payout BJ, Aces split 1 card only, surrender available, double any two, hit soft 17, triple 7s pay 3:2. Wizard of odds has this game at about 0.57% player disadvantage.

My goal right now is to do this for fun and also to do it for farming points for the comps now and eventually even better comps, but I'm also interested in practicing because I am satisfied by the potential of beating the house.

I was able to memorize basic strategy in a couple weeks, and now have moved on to deviations.

Over the last couple of weeks I have been very lucky and am up $500 dollars with 0-$30-$60 bets only, never betting below a true 1 and betting at a true1 only every 1-3hands, only raising to $60 every hand above a true2 and also only after a win with $30 to make my play look natural. By my estimates, I should actually be up closer to only $50. I only use Hi-Lo count and I side count the Aces. I never read anywhere to side count Aces but it appears to me reasonable that the extra information is valuable. I also wondered if the casino would cheat by removing aces from their deck, which I found no evidence for so far.

I've somehow gotten a little bit of heat from wonging in with $30-60 bets and already talked to a suited man. In this situation, I tried to feign idiocy... Though it seems to have worked well.

If you are inclined, please tell me your personal thoughts about 1) my strategy described here, 2) the game offered here (is it a good game to play?), and 3) potential next steps I could take to improve my game beyond the simple hi-lo counting + basic strategy.

Better folks than me will respond. I think Hilo is fine. The game is something I would not play because I can’t see myself not playing below a true 1, only betting a max $60 and wonging out that often. Moreover, with a $30 minimum and $60 max, variance is most likely why you are winning and why the casino might let you play that way. Variance can and will go the other way as well.

I would suggest, if your bankroll permits, play till a True -1 count, ramp up to a much higher max bet.

[refinery]

Wonging in pisses off the floor, the dealer, and the players. What do you think it looks like you're doing standing behind that table? Just looking for the bathroom?

[BoSox]

I was able to memorize basic strategy in a couple weeks, and now have moved on to deviations.

Over the last couple of weeks I have been very lucky and am up $500 dollars with 0-$30-$60 bets only, never betting below a true 1 and betting at a true1 only every 1-3hands, only raising to $60 every hand above a true2 and also only after a win with $30 to make my play look natural. By my estimates, I should actually be up closer to only $50. I only use Hi-Lo count and I side count the Aces.

Since you have now moved on to learning deviation plays that is a good thing because when you previously used the high low count without any deviations you were Wonging in too early at a TC of +1. You were still playing at a disadvantage at that time. Even when using the I 18 plays "Developed by Don Schlesinger" the most important indexes that you can learn, at a TC of +1 the edge is 0.28% on that game.

Are you playing in the same casino every day? If so for how long a time period? If the answer is yes to the first question you are asking for trouble. Who is paying for the cost of the hotel?

[JBourne]

I'm staying long-term at a hotel which gives me a voucher for $20-50 in chips every day. Additionally, If I actively play at a $30min table game for some amount of time (guessing 10-15 minutes), I can get comped to eat in their restaurant for free, which I enjoy.

I garnered interest in card counting and have been wonging into their game, mainly for free food, free drinks, and for fun trying to beat the house.

The game is as folllows:
8deck shoe, 2.5 decks cut off, split any 2 pair, 3:2 payout BJ, Aces split 1 card only, surrender available, double any two, hit soft 17, triple 7s pay 3:2. Wizard of odds has this game at about 0.57% player disadvantage.

Cutting off 2.5 decks from 8d really stinks. Your EV is going to be very low compared to other games. If you really want to be there just play enough to snag the comps & practice and then find another game to play for real.

Playing only positive counts is good, but it's a problem to look natural jumping in and out all the time. You may not be getting heat, it just annoys everyone. Betting $zero looks bad for any extended period.

$30-$60 spread is not much, even for playing TC1+. Invest to analyze the game you are playing and your betting pattern. Be honest with yourself, you might be just treading water in the long run. Ignore your short term results, it doesn't mean much.

Hi-lo is more than sufficient to win. Side count aces and adjusting will increase EV but ONLY if you can do it accurately. Better to play simple and perfect than complicated and sloppy.

[refinery]

I don't use high low, but my understanding is an ace side count isn't effective when combined with a count that reckons aces into the main count like high low. Did Wong include ace adjustments?

[JBourne]

I don't use high low, but my understanding is an ace side count isn't effective when combined with a count that reckons aces into the main count like high low. Did Wong include ace adjustments?

Betting correlation with High Low is extremely good (97%), so there is no point to ace side count when it comes to betting. Adjusting for aces will improve insurance accuracy (76%) because you are correcting for any distortion in proportion with 10s. Playing accuracy (51%) can also be improved because aces often play as small cards. You can bet based on HL true count, then adjust for aces and make playing decisions based on an ace-adjusted TC.

I'm not sure exactly how much the adjustment is worth. Feels like extra work to me at this point. I would rather refine my ability to quickly and accurately calculate TC, increase the breadth of indices I know, and carry on a B.S. conversation with the guy wants to fist bump after I just won an unusual deviation. I could see adding it to the mix if it doesn't screw up my accuracy on anything else.

[Freightman]

I don't use high low, but my understanding is an ace side count isn't effective when combined with a count that reckons aces into the main count like high low. Did Wong include ace adjustments?

Why not and yes, at one time.

To clarify, the ace is already factored in with regards to betting correlation in an ace reckoned count. So the advantage to ace Counting comes in enhanced playing efficiency.

[refinery]

Why not and yes, at one time.

To clarify, the ace is already factored in with regards to betting correlation in an ace reckoned count. So the advantage to ace Counting comes in enhanced playing efficiency.

If Wong included adjustments then that sounds reasonable. The why not, however, is once you're side counting the aces I'm not sure why you wouldn't just pick an appropriate ace neutral count.

[21forme]

At one time, Wong included ace adjustment for hilo in his book, but removed it later editions, saying it wasn't worth enough to include. However, there was a post on BJ21 many years ago by Cacarulo who showed for a number of specific plays, making ace adjustments in a DD game is worth about 10%. In a shoe game, it's virtually worthless.

[Freightman]

At one time, Wong included ace adjustment for hilo in his book, but removed it later additions, saying it wasn't worth enough to include. However, there was a post on BJ21 many years ago by Cacarulo who showed for a number of specific plays, making ace adjustments in a DD game is worth about 10%. In a shoe game, it's virtually worthless.

Among other things, think about insurance decisions. I wouldn’t call that worthless.

[Freightman]

If Wong included adjustments then that sounds reasonable. The why not, however, is once you're side counting the aces I'm not sure why you wouldn't just pick an appropriate ace neutral count.

Ace neutral counts demand a high high level of deck estimation, combined with all kinds of true count adjustments based on surplus or deficit of aces to get that proper bet out.

In any event, it doesn’t really matter what you think, only matters what the person using it thinks.

[Meistro123]

ditch the ace side count