Opinion on "even money" and max bet BJ.

[Freightman]

I ran a sampling with half deck estimation. Truncate TC division. Round Deck Estimate.
2 hands at $50 TC 4 would be 4.95% distribution. Win 49.71% Loss 50.29
TC 5 2.92% win 50.20% Loss 49.80%. $100
TC 6t 2.78% win 51.52% Loss 48.48% $150

Truncating is simply a circumcision of numbers, to make 1.61753456 appear as 1.6. It's still 1.61753456, and is still 1.0 for betting. Look at it from a flooring perspective. That way, you get to extrapolate between true counts, and allows you to get more money on the table with more safety.

[BoSox]

What do you mean by 57%, 60%, etc.?

Don

Don, Moses explained this in post #113 in this thread.

[Freightman]

Flooring. tc4 dist. 4.96% win 49.75% loss 50.25
tc5 dist. 2.91% win 50.21% loss 49.78%.
tx6+ dist. 2.78% win 51.40% loss 48 60%

Now look at 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, etc

[Freightman]

Freighter. The big line is at tc 5.5.

Regardless, the point is made in all categories

[ZeeBabar]

Flooring. tc4 dist. 4.96% win 49.75% loss 50.25
tc5 dist. 2.91% win 50.21% loss 49.78%.
tx6+ dist. 2.78% win 51.40% loss 48 60%

I am a simpleton but are you saying at TC+4, you lose more hands than you win? If yes, why does it call for a higher bet amount?

[Freightman]

I am a simpleton but are you saying at TC+4, you lose more hands than you win? If yes, why does it call for a higher bet amount?

Zee
You're always an odds on favorite to lose the next hand - because, regardless of count, you will never win more hands than the dealer.

The reason you make money is that the higher the count, the higher the success rate is on doubles, splits, doubles after splits, and of course, score more blackjacks. This is why you bet more when the count is high.

[BoSox]

They are just joking with you ZeeBabar in reality at TC+4 you win 94% of every hand you play. Zeebabar what the hell is wrong with you please read a book.

[DSchles]

"Zee, you're always an odds on favorite to lose the next hand - because, regardless of count, you will never win more hands than the dealer."

I just don't understand why soooo many people believe this, when it's patently false. With typical rules, in a shoe game, when the Hi-Lo TC >= +5, the player wins more hands than the dealer.

Don

[ZeeBabar]

"Zee, you're always an odds on favorite to lose the next hand - because, regardless of count, you will never win more hands than the dealer."

I just don't understand why soooo many people believe this, when it's patently false. With typical rules, in a shoe game, when the Hi-Lo TC >= +5, the player wins more hands than the dealer.

Don

But Don, if player loses more hands at TC 2 or 3 or 4, why increase bet? What does it mean when we have the advantage at TC2 in a DD game?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Z' ...

You could "up" your stock as a thinking being by listening to your betters,
especially when it comes to Giants in the blackjack field e.g. Don S et al.

As you are not smart enough to know that you know very little and what
you DO know is polluted like a stinking toxic garbage dump in Afghanistan
your commentaries here on this forum MUST be monitored by some of us.

[Meistro123]

But Don, if player loses more hands at TC 2 or 3 or 4, why increase bet?

Because you win more of the uneven payouts. You win the doubles more often than you lose them and of course blackjack pays you 1.5:1 so despite losing more frequently than you win you still have an edge, you still expect to make money in the long run.

[DSchles]

But Don, if player loses more hands at TC 2 or 3 or 4, why increase bet? What does it mean when we have the advantage at TC2 in a DD game?

How many hands you or the dealer wins or loses is an almost meaningless statistic. It has no importance whatsoever. I'm not sure why it's ever even discussed. Your edge does not come primarily from the percentage of hands you win; rather, it comes from your ability to get 3:2 for naturals, and your right to double, split, surrender, and insure, when it's correct to do so. The dealer can't do any of those things.

I was simply pointing out that people are fond of claiming that the player NEVER wins more hands than the dealer, regardless of the count, and that this is absolutely not true.

Don

[DSchles]

"Correct me if Im wrong Norm. But my understanding from what you told me is all the DDs, Insurance, BJs, are included in these tallies. However, it does show a profitable win rate. I always figured it was do to being up from the standard win loss percentage."

Do you not understand that your win rate at various true counts has little to do with how many hands you win or lose at those counts? Win rate refers to dollars won and lost, not HANDS won and lost, which is irrelevant. Why you quote things like 57%, 60%, etc., is a total mystery to me and everyone else here.

Don