Max bet, long run, BR, part time AP question...

[ZeeBabar]

If you max bet is $300 or less and you have no intention of ever ncreasing it or playing at higher stakes, you play $10 to $25 min., games, and you want to grow a BR to where you are playing with a less than 5% ROR, what BR amount is it where you can use/spend the excess?

I don't need BJ to meet my daily needs or living expenses. I started out with a BR of $15k, slowly growing it over 3-4 years to its present $44k. I would like to set aside a BR for BJ and start spending the excess, if any, on recreational activities.

For many, it's important to spend on partners/spouses (and for self) so they are more tolerant of your trips, more convinced you are not losing your nest egg and also to reward yourself.

Comments?

[DSchles]

Using $15-$300, Hi-Lo, 4.5/6, S17, DAS, ROR will be under 5% with about $32,000 of bank. So, I'd say you're already in "excess" territory. Of course, if you siphon off the whole $12,000 and hit an immediate losing streak, you won't have left yourself any cushion, so tread lightly.

Don

[ZeeBabar]

Don, I generally play DD (80%) and 6 deck (20%). Rules are H17 and no Surrender. I would prefer figures for a $25 min, DD game, with spread of 1-8 and 6 deck games with spread of $10 to 2x $90.

They say a minimum of 100 max bets and that makes it $30k but I don't know if it's 5% ROR or less. Some advise to consider an ROR of less than 2%.

Appreciate your help.

[Bubbles]

Perhaps keep track of your EV and only spend your EV provided your BR remains over 32k.

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[DSchles]

Don, I generally play DD (80%) and 6 deck (20%). Rules are H17 and no Surrender. I would prefer figures for a $25 min, DD game, with spread of 1-8 and 6 deck games with spread of $10 to 2x $90.

They say a minimum of 100 max bets and that makes it $30k but I don't know if it's 5% ROR or less. Some advise to consider an ROR of less than 2%.

Appreciate your help.

You didn't mention the penetration in the DD game. That is critical information. Anyway, if no DAS, and 60%, then a little less than $30,000 will do. If 50%, more like the previous shoe game.

Don

[Ryemo]

Perhaps keep track of your EV and only spend your EV provided your BR remains over 32k.

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Exactly. But that would require the use of software. And this is Zee.

[mofungoo]

What I've been doing is using my BR only for AP-related expenses, and I try to minimize those expenses. This has resulted in satisfactory bankroll growth while paying for my meals, lodging, and travel expenses. For 2D games I have a strict set of standards WRT pen, rules, and number of players. I will not play in a bad game, period.

[Freightman]

And this is Zee.

And therein lies zee problem.

[Freightman]

What I've been doing is using my BR only for AP-related expenses, and I try to minimize those expenses. This has resulted in satisfactory bankroll growth while paying for my meals, lodging, and travel expenses. For 2D games I have a strict set of standards WRT pen, rules, and number of players. I will not play in a bad game, period.

Which brings up an interesting question.
At what point do you stop worrying about bankroll growth and start to enjoy the fruits of your labor.

First and foremost, build a strong bankroll. Then, consider your options based on long term goals. I didn't spend a dime till I hit 30k, hardly spent period till the 100k mark, and have spent liberally since.

It's more than suitable for any game that I get into.

[ZeeBabar]

Which brings up an interesting question.
At what point do you stop worrying about bankroll growth and start to enjoy the fruits of your labor.

First and foremost, build a strong bankroll. Then, consider your options based on long term goals. I didn't spend a dime till I hit 30k, hardly spent period till the 100k mark, and have spent liberally since.

It's more than suitable for any game that I get into.

What is a strong bankroll if your intent is to stick with a $300 max bet, play $25 min games? It's essentially the question. If, like you, I should restrain myself till I get to a $100k BR, then I will not live long enough to enjoy it. However, if the $30k or $40k BR is sufficient, then I can start enjoying my winnings, spend $$ above BR, stopping the spending if BR goes below $40k.

[Freightman]

What is a strong bankroll if your intent is to stick with a $300 max bet, play $25 min games? It's essentially the question. If, like you, I should restrain myself till I get to a $100k BR, then I will not live long enough to enjoy it. However, if the $30k or $40k BR is sufficient, then I can start enjoying my winnings, spend $$ above BR, stopping the spending if BR goes below $40k.

A strong bankroll can be any amount that is sufficient to handle virtually anything within the confines of your goals. Many years ago, I (briefly) considered a strong bankroll to be 15k, that amounts exceeding the that would find somewhere else to go. Good thing I didn't follow that thought, as, within due course, local conditions at the red chip level declined significantly. I needed the stronger bankroll to adapt to higher conditions.

To answer your other comment, a max bet, regardless of what it is, and regardl Ssk of its relation to your bankroll, still needs to be at a casino comfort level.

[Freightman]

Zee
Should add 1 more thing. You stated no point, if you can't enjoy it. I happen to agree with you on that point. App,cation if the point will vary for each individual depending on their goals.

[Stealth]

I

What is a strong bankroll if your intent is to stick with a $300 max bet, play $25 min games? It's essentially the question. If, like you, I should restrain myself till I get to a $100k BR, then I will not live long enough to enjoy it. However, if the $30k or $40k BR is sufficient, then I can start enjoying my winnings, spend $$ above BR, stopping the spending if BR goes below $40k.

I think what Don was trying to point out that RoR numbers and bankroll growth numbers are statistics and you MUST recognize that if you are at a 5% ROR then their IS a 5% chance, and it is real, to loose all your bank. This was strong enough a deterrent for most teams with healthy bankrolls to choose to play at .25% - .50% Kelly. It is this FEAR that causes people to play conservative until the bank is a multiple of their "calculated" number.

My advice is that the premise that you can survive at 5% RoR is a very dangerous one. You might consider half kelly as a safer plan.

You too can ignore the exposure. Fire away.