Just wanted to update everyone with results over my first 72 hours of total table play, $5,$10, and $15 table min DD, H17, DAS, no surrender. Avoid .50cent antes 95% of the time. Off the top 2x2units if more than 1 other player. dropping to 1x1 unit when TC-2, spreading up to 2x7, 1x9, mostly sticking to 1-6 unit spreads. I will wong out for bathroom, food, cellphone maybe 30% of the time, but usually play all.
I started with only a $1600 bankroll with the approach that I want to show measurable and consistent profitability at low stakes that would be evidence that I am following a system well and my play is correct and producing positive expected results. If this proves to be successful I could deploy around 15k initial bankroll and move up to green chips. Please note: I did practice, study for 2 months before playing live games. Since then 100% of my play has been in casino and not with practice software products. I have been learning to count proficiently while appearing to be bad player, chat up table etc, while playing. I never have the serious demeanor look that i see some counters have.
My first 12 hours of play, I was playing a customized version of UBZ2 and making several counting and playing mistakes. During this time I found big problems for me with unbalanced count, missing opportunities in the first several hands of the DD shoe. I realized I needed to switch to a balanced count, and had to decide between hiopt1 or hiopt2 becuase I want to add side counts in the future. In the end I decided on hiopt2 w.ace side count as a starting point. Zenmaster helped me out guiding me in the right direction with hiopt2 and I really appreciate the help. Student did not always follow master 100%, and so did develop my own system around hiopt2 which used 9 levels of rounded indices between -9 and +13 TC with about 50 indices. I am further playing around with 7 side count and a balanced RC of 89 v A for betting and playing decisions but I have not ironed out what the system will be yet.
For the current play history, between 12 hours and 72 hours is Hiopt2 w/ace side count and in general improving in overall play and TC conversion with time. The results are below, the variance gods have been treating me well as I have been experience a nice positive growth with little variance so far. The little downside variance I had was a couple times buying the other half of $100 double downs from other players, and each of the 4 times it has happened I have yet to win one. Since switching to hipot2 I have 11 winning session, 3 losing and 1 flat. My simulations say I should be averaging $34/hr at $10min, and I'm at $32/hr with 75% of the play being at $5 min table, 25% of play either $10 or 15mins. So i think I am above EV by about $10/hr. I also have been tipping to much, approximately $6/hour in tips which is not included in the PL chart.
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