Accuracy of deck estimation in DD for betting/playing decisions..

[ZeeBabar]

Wondered how much accuracy is needed in deck estimation in DD games and how it effects your betting and playing decisions. Also, an easier way to calculate..tips?

For example, after 2 rounds of heads up play, the RC is +2, I generally think of it as slightly better than a TC+1 so I use that for my decision, may not crease my $25 bet. If no Ace came out, I might spread to 2 hands of $25.

if the RC is 3, I see TC after two rounds of heads up as greater than 1.5 and might increase my bet.

I seem to play with rough estimations, for example, if RC is 4 and about 2/3 of a deck has been played out (1 and 1/3 remaining), I guesstimate TC as around 2.5 but less than 3 and bet accordingly. The playing hand issues are also guessing and ocassionally, I get stumped but I don't know if it's serious enough to worry.

on these forums, I have read about dividing or multiplying by decimals and on. Don't know how it's effecting my bottomline though, in DD games, I am doing quite well.

[Meistro123]

I seem to play with rough estimations, for example, if RC is 4 and about 2/3 of a deck has been played out (1 and 1/3 remaining), I guesstimate TC as around 2.5 but less than 3 and bet accordingly.

Well 4 / 1.33 is 3. Anyway blackjack decisions are pretty forgiving once you know what you are doing so it sounds like you are getting the hang of it. If you are having trouble with dividing by 1.25 or 1.33 you can always practice this skill at home.

[ZeeBabar]

Well 4 / 1.33 is 3. Anyway blackjack decisions are pretty forgiving once you know what you are doing so it sounds like you are getting the hang of it. If you are having trouble with dividing by 1.25 or 1.33 you can always practice this skill at home.

I started playing rated at this casino years ago, lost a bit initially and they probably still have me as a lifetime loser but in the past year I have won consistently but no serious heat. I think a couple of pit guys know I am counting but don't seem to believe I am a threat. My spread in DD is 1-6 but maybe I am underbetting or not betting optimally or something cause they let me get away. Maybe they see a positive RC and I have not increased my bet or something.

[jimmybond007]

I switched over the using multipliers. I find it easier. Also be mindful to not under bet in deep pen. A very mild RC into a deep cut game will warrant max bets....

[Freightman]

Zee
Everyone's brain is wired a bit differently than the next guy. I always like to think of things in different ways. here is one alternative.

Think single deck. Fir the sake of argument, assume house edge of .5.
Take a king out off the top. Minus one. Min bet time.

Okay, take a 5 out off the top. You hi lo guys are now even with the house at true 1. Your even with the house. Wait wait - if youre playing halves, its RC 1.5, which equates to an advantage. A different story.

The point us, calculating in single deck terms is easier on lots if brains, and all you have to do is multiply or divide by 2 to get to double deck terms. Further, instead of trying to figure out on the spot which multiplication, division to table to use, just extrapolate.

Example, 3 average hands are gone heads up at dd, equates to 16.4 cards between you and the dealer. RC = 4. The single deck equivalent would be RC 2. Now pick an upper and lower pivot point. RC 2 = true 2 multiplied by used cards (Use quarter deck) multiplied by 1.25 equals true 2.5. Now, you still have to equate for the 3.4 cards over the quarter deck, which reduces true 2.5 20% to true 2.

Damn, sounding like 3. Sounds more complicated than it is. But again, simply an alternative.

[Freightman]

Also be mindful to not under bet in deep pen. A very mild RC into a deep cut game will warrant max bets....

Yes, yes, yes

https://youtu.be/vkD6EmeDYOY

[Bigdaddy]

Also be mindful to not under bet in deep pen. A very mild RC into a deep cut game will warrant max bets....

As noted above, deck estimation in a deep pen DD game becomes very important and even more so if you are using an ace side count. For instance, let's assume you're using HO2/ASC with quarter-deck estimation and the running count is +2 and 5 aces have come out. You have less than one deck remaining, but you're not sure if there's 3/4 of a deck left or 1/2 left. If there is actually 3/4 left, then your correct betting count is +2 (2/.75 floored), so you probably would not raise your bet at this point. But if there is actually 1/2 deck remaining, then the correct betting count is +8 ((2 + 2 for ace surplus)/.5), and you would be close to max bet for that. So in deep pen, "it's a game of inches.."

[Three]

For example, after 2 rounds of heads up play, the RC is +2, I generally think of it as slightly better than a TC+1 so I use that for my decision, may not crease my $25 bet. If no Ace came out, I might spread to 2 hands of $25.

How do you run your sims? If the sim calls the deck estimation 2 decks until it reaches 1.75 decks left then you shouldn't take these liberties. The recommendations of the sim are based on the average of all things in the betting bin. It doesn't mean at exactly TC +1 you have this and at TC +1.1 you have more. It means the average for all TC's that fall in the TC +1 bin have that as an average. If TC +1.4 is the average TC in the bin the TC +1.1 you still might not have that advantage. To extrapolate you need a good understanding of how your sim uses deck estimations and what TC's fall into what integer bin if your bins are made of integer TC's. If not just eliminate integer from that statement and use bin. The center of a bin when speaking of average will fall near the middle of the bin but slightly toward 0 TC. This is due to the TC frequency bell curve. You need to start by understanding how your sim constructs its bins and how it rounds deck estimations.

I seem to play with rough estimations, for example, if RC is 4 and about 2/3 of a deck has been played out (1 and 1/3 remaining), I guesstimate TC as around 2.5 but less than 3 and bet accordingly. The playing hand issues are also guessing and ocassionally, I get stumped but I don't know if it's serious enough to worry.

This is a good example. If you simulator calls 1.5 decks left anything from 1.26 to 1.75 then with 1.3 left it is a data point in the betting bin of TC = +4/(3/2) = +8/3 which your simulator may call TC +2 but you are trying to force it to TC +3 (+4/(4/3) = +3). If you do that you are over betting the rest of the TC +2 bin since the heavyweights that pull the bins average up are not in the bin anymore and you are overheating the heavyweights you promote into the next betting bin. This will make all your sim stats wrong. The SCORE won't be right. The SD won't be right the EV won't be right. The CE won't be right. What is the point of running the sim if you are going to try hard to not follow it. Now there are reasons to deviate from the straight sim strategy. Like you don't want to move your bets around too much so if you are near the cusp two bins you may want to favor the same bet. Or you may want to favor the higher bet if the situation and ramp makes having to jump your bet a high likelihood. These are longevity factors that are worth affecting sim results for. Trying to outsmart the sim you base your strategy on is not a good idea.

[ZeeBabar]

Oh T3, I never ran a sim in my life, don't check my EV or SD or SCORE. You are a Ph'd trying to talk to a high schooler and most of what you are saying is way over my head. I count cards, play DD games with a spread of 1-6 at $25 min. Game with a BR that is at $44k. I am okay with $10-$15 an hour, lately averaging $100 an hour, overall for the year, about $20 an hour but trending up.

I use CBJN, and try to find good games, play intuitively as far as deck estimation and bet amounts, do my best.