Ploppies who beat me

[BJGenius007]

Even every AP (or almost) told me ASM can't be programmed to clump cards in the past two years, I still firmly believe it CAN. In the past two years, in the casinos that I conclude their ASM are programmed, I beat every other AP, every other Basic Strategy players and every other ploppies who made their decisions randomly.

But one group of ploppies beat me. Their decision is basically to "mimic the dealer". Most of the time they don't double or split. They almost hit until reaching 17 even dealer shown the weaker upcard, unless "the experts" told them not to hit against a dealer's bust card. The only exception is that they may stop at 15 or 16 even dealer up card is 7 or higher. I am amazed that these ploppies have better winning percentage than me. Do I blame the variance or the machines?

[BJGenius007]

Why would anyone play a game where they believed cheating or a fixed outcome was involved? Do you bet on WWF matches on RAW every week or save a bundle for Wrestlemania?

Because I seldom play at the casinos (four of them but the number is growing) in my blacklist so there is a good chance that the pit boss doesn't know me. I may make a killing in four or five shoes until they came to change ASM setting. But if the pit boss saw me before and know I am a counter, I only had one good shoe then it will stay clumped all day.

[BJGenius007]

What if another APs arrives before you, cleans them out, and they already started clumping?

I mentioned this before in other thread. If there is already an AP at the table, then the shoe is clumped already most likely, unless it is a very lazy pit boss in charge.

Also one casino had $5 table, normally I played at $25 table so I thought maybe $5 table is different so I went there to play with more ploppies in crowded situation.

$5 table is even worse. While $25 table has beast mode on demand upon AP's arrival, $5 is always on beast mode shuffling since ploppies don't care.

[Three]

Because I seldom play at the casinos (four of them but the number is growing) in my blacklist so there is a good chance that the pit boss doesn't know me.

This statement says your play is too insignificant sampling to make any conclusions.

[BJGenius007]

This statement says your play is too insignificant sampling to make any conclusions.

My procedure is that I would lose 10K plus confirmed by human's sense at the particular casino (the first one is 25K) to put it on the blacklist.

[BJGenius007]

I'm not from the east coast nor have ever been further east than Iowa. But do you drive to these casinos?

I've met some guys with similar theories in the sportsbook on horse racing. Of course, they don't know if the wore pants that day or not. I'm just joking with you BJ. Lol

All four casinos in my blacklist are in Pennsylvania. They have the best rule: S17, LS with penetration 5.4-5.7D/6D and they welcome AP to play. But as far as I know, I am one of the few AP still standing without busting the bankroll. Strangely I won more in Ohio even they had H17 and in WV even they don't have LS and never feel there is something wrong with ASM in NJ, WV and OH.

[bjarg]

You still around?
I would love it if you could tell me the names of this casinos that are pre-programming their ASMs.
Im looking forward to get some playing time over there and make some easy money.
Since they are in your black list and you are positive they "cheat" Im assuming you wont mind sharing that information with me.
My email is [email protected].
Thanks.

[BJGenius007]

In the past two years, I have tried different methods to cope with ASM clumping in these casinos. Eventually I have stopped bleeding and find a way to make money even the condition is abnormal.

First, ASM clump ace and nine. So BJ I got every hour is average 3.2 (assume eight ace clump in every shoe, adding house edge by 0.8%) or 3.6 (assuming six ace clump in every shoe, adding house edge by 0.6%) compared to theoretical 4.8 BJ every hour. It is not that bad if players can spread.

Second, because ace and nine cards are clumpped, the best counting system is Advanced Omega II with ace side count, now players cover both ace and nine. I have used AO2 with good result.

Third, I am using HiOptII now and have good result as well. But using HiOptII is tricky. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO BET OPTIMALLY BASED ON RC AND ASC COMBINED. Because ace is clumped, you will encounter the extreme situation often like very positive RC but very negative ASC or very negative RC but very postive ASC. I bet even HiOptII experts don't know how to bet in these scenarios that happened often.

Quiz 1. RC -10, ASC +11, 0.75D remaining, $25 to $500 spread, What is the optimal bet?

Quiz 2. RC +15, ASC -8, 2D remaining, $25 to $500 spread. What is the optimal bet?

Quiz 3. RC +14, ASC -10, 2.5D remaining. What is the optimal bet for full Kelly betting?

Quiz 4. RC -12, ASC +9, 1.5D remaining. What is the optimal bet?

Quiz 5. RC +30, ASC -8, 2D remaining, $25 to $500 spread. What is the optimal bet?

Quiz 6. RC +28, ASC -10, 2.5D remaining. What is the optimal bet for full Kelly betting?

(PA rules, 6D deck)

[Three]

All four casinos in my blacklist are in Pennsylvania. They have the best rule: S17, LS with penetration 5.4-5.7D/6D and they welcome AP to play. But as far as I know, I am one of the few AP still standing without busting the bankroll. Strangely I won more in Ohio even they had H17 and in WV even they don't have LS and never feel there is something wrong with ASM in NJ, WV and OH.

I have had casinos with the best games that I struggled to win money. One had hand shuffled games so I couldn't blame the machines. Figuring out why was a big part of increasing wins at the casinos I visit and determining what casinos not to visit despite the best rules and pen. My winnings multiplied accordingly. When you blame something that has nothing to do with the reason why, you can't learn anything about the actual reason why. I don't want this to turn into an education for the casinos in how to make things hard to beat even if it looks like a dream game for an AP so I will not say why in the open forum. Indications are trying to help people here has had casinos use the information to make their games tougher while offering better pen.

[AndretheGiant]

They welcome losing Ap play.I know a few people that have been told they can't play anymore.
But then again they were playing a winning game.
I Don't know why the casinos didn't turn on the beast mode,they just let these people win.
The bosses must not like you and always turn on the beast mode,thats why you can't win .

[BJGenius007]

You still around?
I would love it if you could tell me the names of this casinos that are pre-programming their ASMs.
Im looking forward to get some playing time over there and make some easy money.
Since they are in your black list and you are positive they "cheat" Im assuming you wont mind sharing that information with me.
My email is [email protected].
Thanks.

There are two in Pittsburgh and two in Philadelphia. $25 table is beast mode on demand upon AP's arrival and lower limit table is almost full time clumped (the latter statement is based on very few samples, so it may be on demand, too). But you need to make them know you are a good counter so they turn on beast mode for you. Some AP tried to sue one casino in Pittsburgh for clumping cards (based on my theory, but not me) eight months ago, so the casino changed all their $5/$10/$15 table to CSM and the few remaining ASM are clean but highly watched (but they began to ban people for counting, no longer welcome AP). I heard the casino has changed it back recently because the lawsuit is dropped. So the number in my blacklist may be three. I just need to go there to investigate.

[Three]

It has been years since I used a straight side count but I will give it a go.
I see in #2 you have a negative ASC which indicates a balanced ace side count. No wonder normal Hiopt2 players can't do it right. You are using a different system. Hiopt2 uses a straight ace side count so example #1 would have a deficit of aces and example #2 would be impossible. A straight ace side count can never be negative.

Using my balanced ace side count (I am 100% sure yours is a different balanced ace side count):
#1 would be a min bet
#2 would be a max bet
#3 would be 1.12% of your BR for using the info linearly and 1.25% of BR for using the info non-linearly
#4 would be a min bet

I am sure you use a different balanced ace side count than I do, so I would be very surprised if my answers would match the answers for your balanced ace side count.

[BJGenius007]

It has been years since I used a straight side count but I will give it a go.
I see in #2 you have a negative ASC which indicates a balanced ace side count. No wonder normal Hiopt2 players can't do it right. You are using a different system. Hiopt2 uses a straight ace side count so example #1 would have a deficit of aces and example #2 would be impossible. A straight ace side count can never be negative.

Using my balanced ace side count (I am 100% sure yours is a different balanced ace side count):
#1 would be a min bet
#2 would be a max bet
#3 would be 1.12% of your BR for using the info linearly and 1.25% of BR for using the info non-linearly
#4 would be a min bet

I am sure you use a different balanced ace side count than I do, so I would be very surprised if my answers would match the answers for your balanced ace side count.

Recall Quiz 2. RC +15, ASC -8, 1D remaining, $25 to $500 spread. What is the optimal bet?

I will wait for more answers to address the quiz results. But to be clear, ASC -8 means ace count is 8 poorer. Also I need to change this to 2D remaining because ASC could be only -4 if there is one deck remaining.