Basic Strategy tips and deviations

[Bricklayer]

Hi everyone, I feel the talent in these forums so let's chit chat. Do you guys believe in DD with a 10 against a dealer up face Why or why not? ( Please ignore any example of a T.C. or R.C. unless you have to then that's OK BC everyone interested in BJ should want to learn any edge). Let's do some quick math together and please correct me if I'm wrong. If a dealer has an up face card then the odds that their hand is a 17-20 from the start is 7/12 (no1 home). This is a 58% chance that something pretty is under that face card right from the start in which you want to double your win or loss. So we have now about a 61.5% chance to land within that same range including 21. My guess is that the edge is small here in favor of the player. But is it really worth the risk considering the best players will look for any edge to improve winnings. I personally tend to believe landing a 17 is garbage so at this point things are equalizing and you are betting against the odds that they have a nice hand from the start so I follow B.S. here and tend not to DD. Let's hear some thoughts from xp'd BJ players who obey or deviate from this situation to get more people interested in making correct bets. Please state your level of success in BJ if you feel comfortable ( We can already tell who some of the best is around here so don't be afraid to explain.
Another point of discussion for fun is hitting your 14 against a dealer face card. We can surmise that the dealer, statistically speaking is most likely is safe and will land that 17-20 58% of the time right from the start ( nobody was home still). So, is this 14 a good hand to hit as suggested in B.S. I tend to believe no here. Here is my reasoning. When we land a 14, we now are at a 54% of not busting. This sounds appealing. That's 7 out of 13 cards to be safe with. Here comes the big butttt.. Out of those 7 cards only 4 are going to be decent (17 sucks BC if you win w 17 it's BC the dealer bust). In other words now the odds look like you are trying to make an insurance call when just about half the time you will bust anyways. So why hit to bank on such low odds (30% to land a decent hand is less than 1/3...or terrible odds). Is forfeit the correct call considering these numbers? I'm a beginner bj player who practices lots, but I do not CC yet BC I have manipulated negative progressions to be not in stone but interchangeable considering statistics and probability. I hope I don't offend anyone by stating this. If anything, inspire us all to make the right BJ decisions. Last one for fun is splitting aces against a face or ace. My intuition says play a soft hand over the split A's in which only 1 card is received... Any logical thoughts (rather than intuition unless your amazing) are welcomed to us hobby amateur and even pro players. I hope this helps everyone even if it hurts your brain to explain. Mine hurts now too lol...Please feel free to comment. #dontgettrukd

[NotEnoughHeat]

Do you guys believe in DD with a 10 against a dealer up face

If you aren't counting or anything else beyond looking at your two cards and the dealer face up card, then no, I would not double down with a ten versus a dealer face. It comes down to the expected value of your net result being higher when you hit rather than double. As a general case see the BJ game described here (link). The expected return of hitting 10 v 10 is 0.025309 while double hard 10 v 10 is -0.008659. Across all common rule sets, it is the case that hitting yields a higher EV than staying.

Any other reason is at most a good heuristic but at the end of the day I either do, or find someone who has done, the math on this discussion. Thankfully, such information is quite widespread and no one needs to do it themselves if they don't want to. A basic strategy table tells you which decision has the highest EV for that hand.

If a dealer has an up face card then the odds that their hand is a 17-20 from the start is 7/12 (no1 home). This is a 58% chance that something pretty is under that face card right from the start in which you want to double your win or loss. So we have now about a 61.5% chance to land within that same range including 21.

I don't understand why you divide by 12 when there are 13 ranks. There are valid reasons to divide by 12 in blackjack math but I don't see this being one of them unless there's something you forgot to say.

Even if we divide by 13 like I think you should I don't know why we are completely ignoring anything beyond the first two cards. Of course the math is easy if no one ever hits but that isn't the case. This is a combinations problem. You need to look at all the possible ways of making each total given a particular strategy and look at their probabilities. Also, with the same total, the player and the dealer will have different odds of making each total if we are playing a S17 game.

Let's hear some thoughts from . . . players who obey or deviate from this situation

You deviate from the BS and double in this spot if the T.C. is equal or greater to the EV maximizing or RA index. Whether or not the dealer takes both of your bets on a dealer blackjack is an important consideration that changes the index number.

Another point of discussion for fun is hitting your 14 against a dealer face card. We can surmise that the dealer, statistically speaking is most likely is safe and will land that 17-20 58% of the time right from the start ( nobody was home still). So, is this 14 a good hand to hit as suggested in B.S. I tend to believe no here. Here is my reasoning. When we land a 14, we now are at a 54% of not busting. This sounds appealing. That's 7 out of 13 cards to be safe with. Here comes the big butttt.. Out of those 7 cards only 4 are going to be decent (17 sucks BC if you win w 17 it's BC the dealer bust). In other words now the odds look like you are trying to make an insurance call when just about half the time you will bust anyways. So why hit to bank on such low odds (30% to land a decent hand is less than 1/3...or terrible odds). Is forfeit the correct call considering these numbers?

Again, I would have the same thought process as with the first hand. However, I'll engage your reasoning a bit here. You are missing out on a big chunk of the equation. It never makes sense to explain which decision is better by only looking at one decision. That would be like bragging how much better your car is than your neighbors but having no idea what car they drive. You should actually be looking at all four or five decisions, hit, stand, surrender, double and possibly split. It's pretty easy figure that the latter two are probably a no go but you should be looking at the return in any case for a complete analysis.

As for surrendering versus hitting. It might be easily forgivable to not explain the merits of surrendering given how straight forward it is. You have a 100% chance to receive 50% of your bet back. To have an edge otherwise you would need a greater than 50% chance of winning the bet at even money. Your explanation on hitting is still lacking though. Unless the casino strangely decides you can't hit on 3 card hands you have to be looking beyond the probability of what your third card is and include the probability of up to a possible 5 card hand (two card 14 + AAA). The probability you make a hand is closer to 44% (link). Making a hand doesn't guarantee a win as you have already imagined. The exact probability on winning given that both you and the dealer make a hand is a bit messy so I won't go into it. However, the dealer does have a 21% chance of busting (link) which you haven't factored in (but in your explanation, it did make sense not to go any further). Another point I want to mention is that you shouldn't immediately discount 17. Yes 17 isn't a good hand but the potential to push shouldn't be dismissed and reduced to losing. If you want to flip a coin where I win $10 if it's heads but push if it's tails please contact me.

Anyways, we won't get anywhere short of looking at the complete math. While these explanations help one understand why basic strategy calls for one decision over another (or potentially something other than the basic strategy decision), it's not definitive and quite frankly, most of us don't really bother knowing how to completely explain every decision. If we did completely explain a decision we would just be doing a full EV calculation. The work has already been done for us and it's only worth doing again as an exercise.

Here are the expected returns on this hand from the first link:
standing: -0.540430
hitting: -0.466307
doubling: -0.938247
splitting: -0.657268
surrendering: -0.500000
dancing: P.riceless

P.S. Please format better in the future. The OP was a bit of a pain to read. Perhaps try paragraphs. Thanks.

[Joe Mama]

For me, the most elegant explanation/derivation of basic strategy is one the Wizard of Odds has on you tube for infinite decks. He does it on an excel spreadsheet in about 30 minutes.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=yfp-t&p=michael+shackleford+bj+excel+basic+strategy#id =2&vid=f6ad9dc1c41cccc4207b5fed720eca2e&action=cli ck

[Gronbog]

As for surrendering versus hitting. It might be easily forgivable to not explain the merits of surrendering given how straight forward it is. You have a 100% chance to receive 50% of your bet back. To have an edge otherwise you would need a greater than 50% chance of winning the bet at even money.

This is a common error regarding surrender. Surrendering for 50% is equal to a 25% chance of winning an even money bet. 0.25x1 - 0.75x1 = -0.5

[Bricklayer]

Hey thanks for the reply.
So I'm saying out of 12 Bc if they had the ace under the face card then they had bj making it a pointless argument/hand to compare (why I said nobody home). So we look at 17-20 which is a 7,8,9,10, j,q,k(7 cards out of the possible 12 left for the starting 2 dealt cards for the dealer. Or the dealer flips bj already. I understand the probability changes if they don't land within 17-20 initially. So/but initially this equals 7/12 or 58.3%.

Thank you for posting the EV for doubling vs not with the 10s. Here is a post from our forum greats which can help educate people on bj jargon like Ev and RA if anyone is interested. https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...e-Index-Thread
If I'm not mistaken then a CC would know if is worth the DD then in which a non CC should take the less riskier bet of not doubling because the EV is about the same (and some might have a smaller bankroll than others so you have to look at ROR).
Thank you for throwing the % of making a hand on 14 vs % of dealer bust.
I like 17 when they show a 7. But I will always hit soft 17 even against a 7. Lol is this greedy and the improper:/. ? Thanks again.
Chime in please everyone so we can exercise our brains and stay young by eating hotdogs. Thanks NotenoughHeat And everyone else who is collaborating with us.

[Bricklayer]

Correct me if I'm wrong. So we should not surrender the 14 against a face card? Does anyone have a link to find the edges of surrendering properly? I heard it can add 1% to your game if done right:/

[Gronbog]

But I will always hit soft 17 even against a 7. Lol is this greedy and the improper:/. ?

There is no need to be guessing at these decisions. The correct basic strategy for most rule sets is widely available. Here is a reliable source:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackj...rategy-engine/
Hitting soft 17 vs 7 is correct basic strategy for all rule sets that I am aware of.

[Stealth]

If anything, inspire us all to make the right BJ decisions. Last one for fun is splitting aces against a face or ace. My intuition says play a soft hand over the split A's in which only 1 card is received... Any logical thoughts (rather than intuition unless your amazing) are welcomed to us hobby amateur and even pro players. I hope this helps everyone even if it hurts your brain to explain. Mine hurts now too lol...Please feel free to comment.

Bricklayer,
Not to be contrarian, but you should know that basic strategy is the mathematically correct way to play every hand. This has been proven with countless simulations of billions of hands and is indisputable. You method of calculation for hand results is somewhat superficial and will cause you lots of grief if you depend on it. Lest you not forget you may be playing into 6 decks.

Basic strategy is enhanced with knowledge of deck composition from card counting. Then you may make departures from basic strategy and better betting decisions as the mathematical advantage has switched to you.

Appreciate your interest and enthusiasm and suggest you begin to research and learn more about the game. www.qfit.com has a free book that will be very enlightening for you.

Good luck

[Gronbog]

Correct me if I'm wrong. So we should not surrender the 14 against a face card?

For early surrender (before the dealer checks his hole card), yes. For late surrender (after the dealer has checked) no. The basic strategy engine I pointed you to handles early and late surrender.

[Gronbog]

Does anyone have a link to find the edges of surrendering properly?

Here is a link for S17 (dealer stands on soft 17) with infinite decks.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/
You would (late) surrender when the otherwise best decision has a return of -0.5 or worse

[Three]

If a dealer has an up face card then the odds that their hand is a 17-20 from the start is 7/12 (no1 home).

Yes, if the assumption is the dealer already checked for BJ.

Let's hear some thoughts from xp'd BJ players who obey or deviate from this situation to get more people interested in making correct bets. Please state your level of success in BJ if you feel comfortable ( We can already tell who some of the best is around here so don't be afraid to explain.

I have had a great deal of success counting cards and built a 6 figure BR from peanuts. I specialize in very complicated approaches but understand and can speak knowledgeably about balanced simple approaches. I never used an unbalanced count so I am not as comfortable speaking on that.

I will address the matchup itself. This matchup is unusual in that you have a huge edge concerning the ace but not really any other cards. You know the dealer doesn't have an ace under because he has already checked for BJ but you still can draw an ace on your hand of 10. This makes counts poorly correlated to the play because in an ace reckoned count the ace information is so diluted by the T's. The ace is only 20% of the counts big card weight. Because of this risk averse indices are always used which moves the EV maximizing index many TC's higher. Risk Averse indices decide whether the gain is worth risking the extra money needed to double. In an ace neutral count that side counts aces you can tailor the weight of the ace surplus or deficit for the play. For 10vT the tag weight is many times the tag weight of the T. So basically the play is weak unless you can factor in aces separately. You can practically make the decision only on ace information but that is going a bit too far.

[Three]

So, is this 14 a good hand to hit as suggested in B.S. I tend to believe no here. Here is my reasoning. When we land a 14, we now are at a 54% of not busting. This sounds appealing. That's 7 out of 13 cards to be safe with. Here comes the big butttt..

The big but is the card you need is either a neutral card, which you have no information on, or weakly counted as a low card when it is in fact the most important high card. Just trust the indices for your count. The index for standing will be extremely high and hard to reach.

So why hit to bank on such low odds (30% to land a decent hand is less than 1/3...or terrible odds).

Because in the long run you will lose the least amount of money by hitting.

Is forfeit the correct call considering these numbers?

No, surrender index will also be very high and hard to reach. In most cases hitting is your best option. Just trust your index plays.

I'm a beginner bj player who practices lots, but I do not CC yet BC I have manipulated negative progressions to be not in stone but interchangeable considering statistics and probability.

In that case trust basic strategy for many of the same reasons. The math has been worked out. You just need to make sure you have the basic strategy for the rules and number of decks you are playing. Basic strategy is not the same for all games.

Progressions not based on shifting advantage as cards are removed only reshape the ebb and flow of money causing losing the total amount bet times the house edge in the long run. Any progression that increases the amount of money bet that isn't based in tracking advantage shifts as cards are removed, basically every progression, will cause you to lose more money in the long run because for the same amount of time your total bet will be more. You do get to change the way money is won and lost but ultimately end up worse off for it.

My intuition says play a soft hand over the split A's in which only 1 card is received... Any logical thoughts (rather than intuition unless your amazing) are welcomed to us hobby amateur and even pro players.

Your intuition is very bad here. Your chances are almost always enhanced by splitting aces over not splitting them. The play is so strong that casinos try very hard to limit the number of times you can split aces. Not being able to resplit aces has a significant addition to the house edge.

Everything has been figured out already. Some things defy explanation and you just have to accept that logic would hurt you and follow the already established best strategy. You can be sure at the basic strategy level you aren't going to come up with any new revelations.

[Bricklayer]

Thanks everyone for the help. I have seen some of these amazing sites but maybe would have never refound them if it weren't for you all. I'm going to continue practicing with more knowledge now thanks to all these great links. You have to love the inner nerdiness when you know that every upgrade leads to us being better players in the long run. Time to get my memorization cap on to create a better BJ player in me. Who knows maybe some day I'll be able to track down aces or close to them to help making the proper bet in a given TC scenario. I seriously can't wait to beat the shoes ass for even more fun and $$ in the near future. Thanks to everyone who contributed here in the past, now and in the future. I hope some of you guys make it to the BJ Hall of Fame. ( preferably in the future so the casinos dont wage war against some of you greats). Ttys

-IntoitTwan