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Thread: Distribution of unit outcomes

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    Distribution of unit outcomes

    I am trying to get the numbers of likelihood of different unit outcomes for basic strategy play given a particular game. So the likelihood given a single bet that you net -4, -3, ..., +3, +4 that amount due to possibility of splitting and doubling after you split.

    Something like the first table in the Wizard of Odds Appendix 4[link] is what I'm looking for. This is useful to me but not quite the ideal information I need since I'm looking for the numbers on two different rule sets that aren't included here. The differences are quite relevant so unfortunately I don't think it would be a good enough approximation (one game is ENHC and the other is split to one hand only). For the SP2 game I can't simply cut out the tails since you can lose 4 bets, for example, splitting to three hands and doubling one of them.

    So I'm wondering if anyone has an idea what the best way to get a hold of this data without doing my own sim or CA?

    I have tried search engines to no avail (many of you know how hard it is to find particular things on this topic without all the junk).

    I would be happy to hear if there's a way to generate these numbers in CVData. Such information is definitely in there somewhere but I'm not sure if there's any output of it or anything from which I can derive what I'm looking for.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    I would be happy to hear if there's a way to generate these numbers in CVData. Such information is definitely in there somewhere but I'm not sure if there's any output of it or anything from which I can derive what I'm looking for.
    Sorry, CVData keeps this data but does not display it as I've not run across a need for it.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Sorry, CVData keeps this data but does not display it as I've not run across a need for it.
    I am attacking a situation where I need it and more. My friend is writing the software now. I am trying to get an unusual book about this strange issue. So far my educated guesses have been crushing it but I really don't understand what to do. I only understand what I don't want to do and that is attack it the same way everyone else does. My friend is a genius and will get it down when he finds the time from a sim standpoint. The math gets so complicated it would be really hard even if I knew what I was supposed to do from a math standpoint. I don't know what math to use but I do know the math most people would use will get their BR fried by variance. I just want to get the math totally on my side before variance catches up with me. This situation is the kind of thing that my approach is tailor made for. Only simulation will get me there and I trust my friend can do it. Even when he said things were impossible to sim when we put our heads together he finds a way. I can figure things out and he can write the software. I just need to know the software limitations to present things in a different way. Most of the time he doesn't need me to get him to an understanding that can be simmed.

  4. #4


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    There's a lot of fundamental blackjack data that may not be relevant to counting (at least in most cases) but ends up being useful for someone dealing with blackjack in different ways.

    For this situation I actually already have decent enough numbers to get a reasonable enough idea of EV but I feel like the approximations I have used thus far won't be precise or accurate enough to determine my variance.

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