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Thread: Unlikely card frequency in Reno?

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    Unlikely card frequency in Reno?

    Wondering if anyone can shed some light on this; I just got back from Reno. Played BJ mostly downtown casinos and had a higher than normal appearance of a 4 or 5 under a dealer 6 in one specific casino (unnamed). On my first day there it was just 'hmm, they sure get that a lot'. On the second day I watched specifically for that occurrence and it happened in 4 of 5 hands. Since there is a 15% chance (right?) of a 4 or 5 being the down card, it seemed strange to have it happen at that frequency. Or am I just making stuff up in my mind?

  2. #2


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    Probably just your imagination. Even if true. Your sample size is way to small to draw conclusions.

    There was a guy i knew who wrote a book (haven't seen him in several years). He actually caught a store where different value cards, dealt from a shoe, had a different feel so that the dealer could bypass them. Examp,e would be a double down with normal card being a 10, that dealer could bypass. It was, as I recall 10 value cards, and I think it was in the Caribbean.

    i was in Laughlin last year as part of a Phoenix area vacation. I was playing double deck against a dealer with a very odd hand motion. Was he cheating? Haven't got a clue, and I wasn't going to stick around to find out.

    Bottom line, you probably just had adverse distribution, but do pay attention to your gut feelings and leave when you are feeling uneasy.

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    The only time I was ever actually cheated at BJ
    was in Reno but that was about 30 years ago.

    It was John Ascuaga's Nugget (Sparks)
    Absolute truth confirmed by a confession
    AND by the redoubtable Stanford Wong.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 02-18-2017 at 06:28 AM.

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    Yes, I agree that the sample size was too small to draw conclusions but the first day, with a larger sample size, gave me a feeling that something was funny. Even if they only had 4/5 under the 6 30-40% of the time (which I'm sure they did), that would be well out of the norm. I was just throwing it out there to see if anyone had a larger sample size with more definitive data. I may just go watch the table next time I'm down and actually count the occurrences of this situation.

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    The human mind is quite adept at recognizing patterns, even where none exist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    The human mind is quite adept at recognizing patterns, even where none exist.
    And........when they do exist......knowing the difference is the tricky part.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Discernment or paranoia are polar opposites that can feel the same.
    This should go under the "quotes" thread!

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    See good example. Great idea. That's discernment. What the hell are you trying to say? That's paranoia. Lol
    Yes, was meant to be a compliment. You make a good point, that through the paranoiac glasses almost anything can be perceived as an attack or an offense.

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