Question for NORM AGAIN!!

[RoadWarrior]

Hi norm! Thank you again for your help before, but i have one more question. When I select backcount for example +1 or +2 on archived sims, what departuree point is set on the simulation to stop backcounting and leave for another shoe?! For example!, when i backcountt, if count reaches -1 TC i leave and find another table. What is the archived simulation set to!? This will affect my true rounds per hour! I will get less rounds if i leave -1, and cvcx says less rounds LESS EV! But to me this doesnt make sense! I am finding new table quicker with higher chance of finding + counts by leaving -1! If i never leave and backcount all shoe long i would get more rounds per hour and more EV? It doesnt make sense to me!! I hope you understand what i saying and can help me!

Is there a departure pointt on CVCX to where the sim stops backcounting and then finds new table? Or is the backcount feature only considering you standing behind table until shoe is over?!

[Norm]

The canned sims simply don't play the hands below that count. For accurate results, create your own sim and use the pre-sim Wonging feature which allows you to set lots of variables.

[RoadWarrior]

Norm! The concept still the same. If I make my own sim, the question is still the same! It is whether or not back counting a full shoe say -1 , -2, -3 TC is better EV because you get more rounds observed! Rather than just leaving -1 and finding new shoe and getting less rounds!? You would get less rounds but it makes more sensse no?! Will EV be lower to stop observing at -1 for example! Because I am getting less rounds!? Should I just backcount full shoe instead to get more rounds observed!?

[Norm]

You need to try and see. And, much of it depends on how long it takes to find a new table in the particular locale.

[RoadWarrior]

The canned sims simply don't play the hands below that count. For accurate results, create your own sim and use the pre-sim Wonging feature which allows you to set lots of variables.

I also was not talking about playing hands! I'm talking about observing hands! And whether or not CVCX has a departure point built into the archived sim of when the players stops back counting and then moves to different table to observe!!

[RoadWarrior]

This question of rounds observed and how long it takes to find another table never set well with me. To me hours played is about exposure as much as anything. While backcounting is exposure finding another table is not. When on a trip I want to maximize rounds played or observed. To do so it is often best to take a long time finding a table that will allow you to do that rather than trying to find the quickest table to join. It is this difference between casino play and sim play that makes me feel the time to find another table is a bogus stat. In a sim all tables are equal. In the casino some tables are 5 to 10 times more valuable than others. For this reason it always seemed silly to include the time to find another table in calculations.

I mean I could easily play 12 or more hours a day but when I only play 4 to 6 hours a day I usually get in more rounds which cuts my exposure to 1/2 or a third of what trying to maximize time played does compared to trying to maximize rounds played. You also fatigue faster if you play continuously. I know that all the research does it by including the time it takes to find another table which is relevant to a back counter but as someone that back counts minimally that is not important. Finding the right table is more important. When I go on a trip I try to maximize quality hours which equates to maximizing rounds played. You finally get a huge advantage you want to get in the most rounds. By picking tables carefully you will find more advantage counts and get in more advantage rounds each time you find one. To realize this goal you must trust your scouting to know when and where to be to get the conditions you seek. If you don't find them wait until they happen or go somewhere else that your scouting says should have the conditions you seek at that time. If conditions deteriorate and your scouting says you would likely find what you seek elsewhere leave.

This is a case where sim results don't tell you exactly what you want to know but you can use sim results intelligently combined with casino conditions and scouting to maximize your trip expectation.

Thank you for reply also! But you also not understanding me. I'm asking whether or not cvcx archived sims have a built in departure point of when player stops back counting and leaves to find new table! For example player stops backcountimg at -1 and leaves!. This will drastically affect rounds observed wouldn't it? Would it be more EV observing the whole shoe even if TC goes to -2 and -3? It doesn't make sense because TC will likely never come back up!! But according to CVCX more rounds observed MORE EV!

[RoadWarrior]

I guess I will just run my own sim! I see that it has category for STOP OBSERVATION which is what I want.! I still would like answer as to archived sim stop observation point!

[RoadWarrior]

From what I remember of my private conversions with Don on the subject, it does't matter if you find another shoe or stay at the same shoe and only bet at an advantage from an EV standpoint. The trouble is no casino will tolerate you doing that for very long so you are better off leaving to find another shoe. The EV is the same.

But wouldn't it be more EV backcounting the shoe all the way to finish even if TC -2 or TC -3!? The reason I say this is because you will have OBSERVED more rounds per hour!

Forget about longevity for one second! I just want to know the correct theoretical answer! With all due respect of course.

[DSchles]

But wouldn't it be more EV backcounting the shoe all the way to finish even if TC -2 or TC -3!? The reason I say this is because you will have OBSERVED more rounds per hour!

Forget about longevity for one second! I just want to know the correct theoretical answer! With all due respect of course.

Reread every word of the Optimal Departure study, Chapter 13 of BJA3. If you still have questions, write back. Yes, of course it matters if you remain past the ODP; that's the whole point of leaving early!

Don

[RoadWarrior]

The key word in this statement is likely. As I remember Don saying it was a 6 round lag (or whatever it is in BJA). That is enough to even out the EV. We both agreed the EV was the same and the difference was what you could get away with something in a casino not EV.

So do I use 100 rounds per hour then when back counting.!? I counted my rounds yesterday at casino when stop observing at -1 and got about 70 rounds observed and played an hour back counting! Which number should I use!? I'm currently running my own sim to stop observ at -1. But how many rounds per hour should I use!? To get an accurate EV estimate?

Again forget about longevity one second! Just want correct theoretic answer for study!

[Three]

So do I use 100 rounds per hour then when back counting.!? I counted my rounds yesterday at casino when stop observing at -1 and got about 70 rounds observed and played an hour back counting! Which number should I use!? I'm currently running my own sim to stop observ at -1. But how many rounds per hour should I use!? To get an accurate EV estimate?

Again forget about longevity one second! Just want correct theoretic answer for study!

You should use the game speed you see in the casino to determine hourly. I prefer to use per 100 rounds and do the calculation for the games I see rather than tell the sim an average game speed. In other words, look at win rate per 100 rounds as you earnings and your holy adjusts that for game speed. If you are playing 70 rounds per hour your hourly is 70% of your per 100 round EV. In a casino you may back count slow tables or fast tables. Obviously given the choice with all else equal you would choose fast tables but your options are what they are.