Cheap Cover Plays?

[Kyzz]

What're some cheap cover plays I should make as a red chipper?
Also, is it costly to leave a big bet out after the TC drops by 1 or 2 (If I won the previous hand)? Or should I reduce it according to the TC?

[Freightman]

What're some cheap cover plays I should make as a red chipper?
Also, is it costly to leave a big bet out after the TC drops by 1 or 2 (If I won the previous hand)? Or should I reduce it according to the TC?

You shouldn't worry about cover at red chip. However, there are a number of low cost errors, which are tantamount to the same thing. Examp,e would be not splitting 99v2 when warranted, maybe passing a7v6 etc. At those levels, really shouldn't get to helped up in the idea however.

As for leaving the big bet in place after winning with a dropping TC, provided that you are so inclined. The answer actually depends on the strength of your bankroll. If you're on a shoestring bankroll, just bet in accordance with the count. If you have a strong bankroll relative to your betting levels, and can easily withstand the variance that this strategy would entail, then go fir it, given proper conditions.

Without going into to much detail, there are golden nuggets on this topic in Snyder's blackbelt in blackjack. It's a nuance of opposition betting.

[Kyzz]

You shouldn't worry about cover at red chip. However, there are a number of low cost errors, which are tantamount to the same thing. Examp,e would be not splitting 99v2 when warranted, maybe passing a7v6 etc. At those levels, really shouldn't get to helped up in the idea however.

As for leaving the big bet in place after winning with a dropping TC, provided that you are so inclined. The answer actually depends on the strength of your bankroll. If you're on a shoestring bankroll, just bet in accordance with the count. If you have a strong bankroll relative to your betting levels, and can easily withstand the variance that this strategy would entail, then go fir it, given proper conditions.

Without going into to much detail, there are golden nuggets on this topic in Snyder's blackbelt in blackjack. It's a nuance of opposition betting.

Thanks for the response!

I ask this because i'm limited to the amount of stores I can play at, so I've been trying to play it safe.

How strong would the swings be? I'm currently playing with a ror of 0.2% and would only be using this method with pitbosses hovering/playing with experienced dealers.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Kyzz,

"Give a hungry man a fish ..."

If you want to generate a (useful) list for your own use,

go ahead and study the e.v.'s in a table of "present values"

Look for those in the neighborhood of -0.10% or thereabouts.

Hint: There are plays with indices between +1 and -1.

Those are close plays. If the play involves doubles or splits

do not attempt to use them as "cover plays", as twice the

amount of money is at risk.

[Three]

If you are so inclined you will put yourself in the position to opposition bet. That is you shouldn't do it just to do it but to set yourself up for even better cover when the count rises and you have won yet the correct bet move is to reduce your bet. The key is to understand the cost in both swing exposure and actual EV and make smart moves at a minimal cost that look stupid. If you had been losing and finally won a bet I would drop my bet with the count. If you are on a run you might want to keep your bet the same. Then the count can raise and it would still be the optimal bet to lower your bet. Now in the long run swings smooth out so they really aren't a concern but you want to look like a ploppy and you don't want to be buying in more times than necessary. The main thing is to understand the goal of confusing the adversary and doing so without derailing your session with too large of swings and allowing situations where the smart move based on the count move looks stupid. You shouldn't look to formulaic when the formula makes you look like typical counter cover (only raise after a win and only lower after a lose). You want to give them another reason for your bet moves but always look for every chance to opposition bet that is also optimal. That really looks like you aren't counting instead of using counter cover. All that said you are playing at low stakes that should see low heat. You would do well to understand these principles and maybe experiment with modest use so you can use them like an expert once you are playing for stakes that require more cover. Just remember to use whatever info you gather in a smart way. I am not necessarily talking about an optimal way. You may be right on the cusp of 2 betting bins and which you choose makes little difference. There are other factors than what bet is barely optimal that you can use to make the decision. Just use your info and your brain to do things intelligently.

[Freightman]

If you are so inclined you will put yourself in the position to opposition bet. That is you shouldn't do it just to do it but to set yourself up for even better cover when the count rises and you have won yet the correct bet move is to reduce your bet. The key is to understand the cost in both swing exposure and actual EV and make smart moves at a minimal cost that look stupid. If you had been losing and finally won a bet I would drop my bet with the count. If you are on a run you might want to keep your bet the same. Then the count can raise and it would still be the optimal bet to lower your bet. Now in the long run swings smooth out so they really aren't a concern but you want to look like a ploppy and you don't want to be buying in more times than necessary. The main thing is to understand the goal of confusing the adversary and doing so without derailing your session with too large of swings and allowing situations where the smart move based on the count move looks stupid. You shouldn't look to formulaic when the formula makes you look like typical counter cover (only raise after a win and only lower after a lose). You want to give them another reason for your bet moves but always look for every chance to opposition bet that is also optimal. That really looks like you are counting instead of using counter cover. All that said you are playing at low stakes that should see low heat. You would do well to understand these principles and maybe experiment with modest use so you can use them like an expert once you are playing for stakes that require more cover. Just remember to use whatever info you gather in a smart way. I am not necessarily talking about an optimal way. You may be right on the cusp of 2 betting bins and which you choose makes little difference. There are other factors than what bet is barely optimal that you can use to make the decision. Just use your info and your brain to do things intelligently.

Considering your ror comment if .02, look at 3's first sentence. The strategy that comes thereafter, as to do it or not, over a number of years, becomes more if a nuance play, in other words, the issue of judgement is at work. Cryptic comments - give it some thought.

[Kyzz]

Kyzz,

"Give a hungry man a fish ..."

If you want to generate a (useful) list for your own use,

go ahead and study the e.v.'s in a table of "present values"

Look for those in the neighborhood of -0.10% or thereabouts.

Hint: There are plays with indices between +1 and -1.

Those are close plays. If the play involves doubles or splits

do not attempt to use them as "cover plays", as twice the

amount of money is at risk.

Thanks! I'll look to create my own.

[Kyzz]

If you are so inclined you will put yourself in the position to opposition bet. That is you shouldn't do it just to do it but to set yourself up for even better cover when the count rises and you have won yet the correct bet move is to reduce your bet. The key is to understand the cost in both swing exposure and actual EV and make smart moves at a minimal cost that look stupid. If you had been losing and finally won a bet I would drop my bet with the count. If you are on a run you might want to keep your bet the same. Then the count can raise and it would still be the optimal bet to lower your bet. Now in the long run swings smooth out so they really aren't a concern but you want to look like a ploppy and you don't want to be buying in more times than necessary. The main thing is to understand the goal of confusing the adversary and doing so without derailing your session with too large of swings and allowing situations where the smart move based on the count move looks stupid. You shouldn't look to formulaic when the formula makes you look like typical counter cover (only raise after a win and only lower after a lose). You want to give them another reason for your bet moves but always look for every chance to opposition bet that is also optimal. That really looks like you aren't counting instead of using counter cover. All that said you are playing at low stakes that should see low heat. You would do well to understand these principles and maybe experiment with modest use so you can use them like an expert once you are playing for stakes that require more cover. Just remember to use whatever info you gather in a smart way. I am not necessarily talking about an optimal way. You may be right on the cusp of 2 betting bins and which you choose makes little difference. There are other factors than what bet is barely optimal that you can use to make the decision. Just use your info and your brain to do things intelligently.

Thanks for the thorough response! It's definitely awesome to have veterans like you and ZMF help us noobies out!

[Bigdaddy]

Cheap cover will yield you what it's worth - cheap. No free lunch. The answer is as always: "It depends". If you're playing in a relatively tolerant store at low stakes, then "cheap cover" is very expensive. If you're playing in a highly-watched environment, then expensive cover may be appropriate, and could be considered "cheap" in the circumstances.

[ZeeBabar]

Too many red chip players cost themselves worrying about heat and back offs from reading the forum. I see this also happening in car forums where posters talk about potential problems and a whole bunch of the members then start taking cover (buying extended warranties, using high priced oil etc.).

unless your max bet exceeds $100 or you play with card a your last half dozen sessions, walked away with $1k plus each time or have been exceeding $15k in life time winnings, you should not be worrying about cover. You will not lose your local stores.

[Bubbles]

My favourite cheap cover is to look drunk and be talkative. Play as correctly as you think they'll let you get away with.

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[RS]

Cheap cover...is cheap.

Making the wrong play on 9,9 vs 2 or A7/A8 vs 6.....you're only getting "cover" if they realize you made an error. If they don't even realize a mistake has been made, that play cost you EV without any heat deflection. If they are suspicious of you and you do something that is totally wrong (double 12v6) and you catch a 7/8/9, that may give you the exact opposite of what you want (now the boss may be thinking how did he know the next card was an 8 when he doubled his 12v6?).

I'm not saying don't make cover plays because they may go unseen, but don't get so hyped into the cover plays into thinking it's going to do a bunch of good for you, because it might all be a waste. IMO, using cover will be more beneficial than detrimental to your play, heat-wise [EV-wise.....it depends]. Just know that misplaying A7/A8 vs 6 or whatever the other marginal plays are, isn't going to make the pit boss think, "Ah, he's just a ploppy....the TC is +X and the index is +Y, if he were a CC he'd have done Z play, therefore he's a ploppy and no threat, I'll leave him alone!".


I don't think there's anything wrong to using cover. I use cover when I play. Don't split tens. Only hit 12 vs 4-6 or 13 vs 2-3 if it is really warranted (count is significantly below index.....I have a decent size bet and count shifted from super positive to negative, etc.). Take even money on all BJ vs A's. But then again, I primarily play pitch games and have a decent spread, so not too worried about saving a few pennies on my min bets.....if I had a smaller spread, then I'd likely have to play a tighter game.

[Three]

I agree red chippers often waste too much on cover. The rest of your post makes me laugh. 15K lifetime for a BO. LoL. You must be very obvious or play tiny sweaty casinos.