Did the gain of 54 units cover your travel, hotel and food expense, and if so, by what multiple?Originally Posted by 21MGR
Scouting is not an understanding of game selection, number of decks, and penetration. It is WAYYYYYY more than that. Scouting isn't INCLUDED with those things. Those things are INCLUDED in SCOUTING. These are two very, very different things.
If you're scouting and all you pay attention to are table rules, penetration, and number of decks, you don't know how to scout.
OP might have thrown a softball for egos. I know one very well bankrolled person using a simple count and just I-18 who has been successful for years. From his perspective, it's the amount bet (or spread) that determines your success and has a significantly greater affect than everything else combined. Using a simple count, occasionally wonging out, playing a max bet at TC2, (has the same bet from TC2 to TC7 or whatever), and an act and reputation, he is doing just fine. He admits that more indexes may get slightly more money but given he is a millionaire, placing that same $200 bet in positive situations works for him.
yes, there are a lot of skills you can acquire to be a successful AP or CC (most can't handle variance) but if you inherited millions and a business that generates a million dollars a year to pay the bills, all you really need to be succesful is to count and bet more in positive counts. The rest is noise for the lower classes.
I think the intelligent will realize that a significant BR is required. Without it, new card counters underbet and thus get ground out. Playing without fear comes from having a significant BR. Because far too many Card counters are attracted to the benefits of a card counting lifestyle (own boss, own hours, hot hostesses and stuff), they attempt to get into the field with small BR's and it's just a matter of time. All those other things (software, reading, etc, are less important) was my point.
Chapter 1: Learn to scout for the advantages before you ever make your move.
There's a lengthy thread somewhere here on this forum where T3 and I go round and round for half a dozen pages or more on this very topic, discussing various advantages that can be scouted to significantly increase EV, that 95%+ of the so called "counters" will miss or ignore.
New card counters will fail because it's difficult to succeed. Being successful doesn't necessarily mean you're a great player. Failing does not mean you're a bad player. For a new card counter, success or failure is not determined over hundreds of hours, months or years of play, but a short period of play (less than 50 hours, I'd imagine). No matter how good you are, you can still lose.
This is much different than other parts of life -- if you're good at something, you will more than likely succeed at it, all things being equal. With card counting (in the short term), "luck" is more important than being good, great, or excellent. That can be very frustrating.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
I agree with this. I know when I got serious about being an AP I had a small BR. I kept doing well and once I was thinking things were easy I would lose my profit back. I went through this cycle a handful of times. Each time i would add more to what I do to increase EV because I knew I could handle it. I did a lot of things that are more valuable to a BR challenged player than other players. I knew that if I had one of the winning runs go a little longer I could play better games and likely not have to worry about busting out too much. Each time I increased my chances of hitting a $20K BR from my $10K starting BR which was the amount that I felt I needed to play the higher limit games that offered much better rules and pen. Eventually I made it over the hump and I credited it to my increasing the strength of my game which has shaped my opinions on things. In retrospect I could have busted out or made it over the hump at anytime. It is impossible to credit the advanced skills I learned to the success. Since I would not play a system I couldn't play perfectly I know it didn't hurt but it was just a matter of time before I either busted out or made it over the hump. I was lucky I spent very little time below my starting BR since the downswings would have nearly wiped out my starting BR of 10K had they hit at times when I was at that BR. I also played 2 spots when most recommended playing 1 spot because my BR couldn't handle 2 spots but my research said to me my BR was in more peril playing 1 spot. It was about my BR outrunning ruin before ruin caught up with me. While the later was more likely in the short term so was the former.
The real push over the hump was through networking with other AP's which allowed me to play 5 days, 1 a week, of a promo that offered an off the top advantage which allowed me to green chip with the same RoR that I had red chipping. Had I not impressed a mentor on the forum that offered to help me learn and eventually share the sensitive promo info with me and set up an appropriate ramp for my BR I would have missed the promo altogether. Anyway the point is it was really getting lucky that caused me to make it as an AP. I am sure I would have made it eventually even if I busted a BR but whenever I did it would be about being fortunate with the ways the wins and losses stacked up. The help from being mentored by a couple real pros was invaluable. I asked good questions and listened intently to any discussions about anything AP on our monthly retreats to an area with a concentration of casinos so I could digest the information for further questions the next monthly AP retreat.
This all took a lot more than 50 hours though. I guess to bust the BR could have happened in that time.
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