The old tempest in a teapot.Originally Posted by Bigdaddy
If you made your Basic Strategy departure at the correct Index,
it means that you probably saved 50 ¢ in e.v. (or far less) on a $100 Bet.
If you were well beyond the index, you could have saved perhaps $2.00
If you want to understand BJ it is important to know what
your equity is per hand matchup, and the effect by True Count.
I refer you to Blackjack Attack, 3rd ed. (latest printing only)
and to Theory of Blackjack (5th or 6th edition)
I read both Blackjack Attack and The Theory of Blackjack. I don't see where they saying anything about delaying the index could save you $2.00. Are you talking risk adverse index? The indices I listed above for the 14 deviations already risk adverse.
Delaying the index play slightly will provide some risk aversion with some doubles
and splits. That is NOT the point I am making here.
Your indices are rounded, and especially with an unbalanced / Level One Count,
they are severely compromised to the point where they are "accurate" only 50%
of the time, they are "over" or "under "25% of the time EACH. That is still not my
point at all.
If simulations demonstrate that your "return" on standing on 10-2 vs. 4 (DD game)
earns a few more pennies (over hitting) on a Green Chip at a Zero T.C. how you play
the hand is without meaningful consequence.
You probably make it easy for the pit to see that you are a card counter by
sometimes standing on 16 v. 10.
Nearly all of the amateur Card Counters that I undertake mentoring start with
"sob stories" about how they "misplayed" some hand [profit / loss] when all
they had done was alter their (projected result) by 1% or less.
Yes, you are right brainpower should be employed far more efficiently and lucrative in other areas but it is not in employing a complicated counting system. An AP should focus more on getting a higher edge on a consistent basis. The edge in a more complicated counting system is tiny in increments through a more complicated count. Adding enough mistakes to a complicated counting system the gain will be the same as a level one count.
The gain or loss from an index play when the count is very close to the index is basically pennies. It isn't worth the extra time it takes to split the hairs to make the decision "properly". Just use BS. If the count is well off the index then there is a lot at stake but the math is not even necessary to see which decision is the strongest one.
The edge will be higher if AP focus on finding games with deeper penetration vs employing a complicated count system. Looking at which dealers offer the best penetration and game speed on each shift. Playing a slow game is a killer sometimes. APs should try to make the conditions favor to game speed. A faster dealer is a quality to the game. Many other factors decrease game speed i.e chip fills, deck changes and players buy ins.
What I am trying to say is that an AP's time is better spent by finding games with a stronger advantage vs employing a complicated count system that involves multiple side counts.
When you were playing at the place that is named after a tree did they tell you to sit down when you were standing up in the double deck game?? You can get a blackjack and the dealer pay you off then they tell you to sit down after the hand. I was playing there and I was about to hold up my middle finger and said fu..k you my man, fu..k up. But I didn't.
Last edited by seriousplayer; 12-16-2016 at 10:46 AM.
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