Always double A,7 vs 2 TC>0.2 and never double A,6 vs 2 (very hi RA index).Originally Posted by DSchles
"The OP now understands why this play and perhaps other plays are more volatile than the EV is worth. You can give a man a fish and he eats for a day. You teach him to fish and you have fed him forever or at least as long as the fish are biting. LoL"
i ask a guy guy pumping gas next to me about where McDonalds is and he wants to show me how to use my smart phone to get to the nearest one?
its arrogance to give unsolicited advice, period. When someone asks a relatively simple question, rationalizing that "you are teaching someone to fish" when the truth is you are using the opportunity to meet your ego needs, show of that you have a doctorate on the subject.
If I ask a local fishing expert what the best lure is I don't want him to tell me it's a deep diving Rapala. I want to know when the fish are hitting what and where or ay least what kind of structure they are keying on. I want to know at what depth the fish are likely to be. Only a moron wants a simple answer to use in a complex situation.
I recently was planning a boat charter on vacation. I read all the sites for various boats and about the Captain and the reviews from those that had chartered the boat as well as the photo gallery. Ultimately I chartered a boat that had a website that described how the Captain located the fish. I was a commercial fishermen as a side job when I was young. He described just how you find fish on a given day. I chartered his boat and told him the fish I wanted to catch, dolphin. He said he would try but everyone is fishing for sailfish since they are the big fish running. He said we probably wouldn't get any. I said I thought nobody had been getting any dolphin because they were fishing for sailfish. We blew by where he said we would probably start, a water temperature change to the right temperature. We went out to a place that a sargasso weed line tends to for but it wasn't there. We went back to the place he said we would start and caught some dolphin and king mackerel. The we trolled out to the second place when the bite stopped. The weed line had formed in a weird eddy that happens as the tide changes along the edge of the gulf stream and we caught dolphin there as well.
The point is understanding why the answer is such is often much more valuable than knowing the answer to a specific question. I knew how to find the fish. I recognized a Captain that would use the proper techniques to find them. He told me most Captains just run to the same spots everyday so they can save gas. Guess what the fish are looking for the right temperature, clarity and structure. That is constantly changing. If you don't understand why you are just hoping to get lucky.
A simple answer is adequate and appropriate for a simple question in a simple situation with a simple goal. Many questions here, such as the one which started this thread, are simple questions for which the situation and/or the goal is not simple and for which a more complex answer is appropriate.
It is about the CE. You need a positive CE to double. For a play that qualifies for risk aversion each TC has a critical fraction of BR where if you bet more than that you don't double. The critical fraction gets higher as the TC gets higher. If you bet a higher percentage of BR for the same TC (same critical fraction) you may exceed the critical fraction were CE is lost rather than gained. It is all about the critical fraction of BR versus the percentage of BR bet and how that affects CE.
Look at p 378 in BJA3 table 13.13. Play-all you reach max bet @ TC +4 but the critical fraction of BR bet is only 1.5% at max bet (RA index +6). With max at TC +5 the percentage of BR for the max bet is 2% (RA index +7). With no max bet the percentage of BR grows with each TC so the RA index is something above +11. The point is that the thing you should be looking at is the fraction of BR not when you max bet goes out. Often there is a relationship that has them correlating but not always. Your observation is from the correlation that does not always exist.
Tthree:
Everything you said is OK, but because of that it can't be a "No Double Down" (or what's the same Index too high). If you have an index for EVmax (non RA) and you have another index for 'RA Max Bet @6", then there must be an index for "RA Max Bet @3".
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