Knew This Was A Very Heat Inducing Move In An Already Bad Spot

**20 to 1 Spread** · 11-21-2016, 02:30 AM

Background: Particular store had all tables backed up. I did not want to wait 1-1.5 hour sitting around for a seat to open at another table, so took a spot at this one table with one identified card counter (3rd to 4th time seeing this guy in about 2 years span). If you are lurking this forum Mr. Nice Watch, I am the third base who you kept whispering to your friend about, I would like to ask you a few questions regarding your approach to the game (in a constructive way). Anyways, a lot of small gestures and rambling occurred with me and the pitboss, with some words like "raise your bets, you gotta raise it if you want to break even" eventually led to, "xxxxx don't count" - to which I replied, you can't count shoe games, it doesnt work. Perhaps this will be a tale of another thread for tomorrow.

Anyways, so now you know the heat is on. On to the hand. Yes I should've left, but I push all my edges like a moron and did not want to wait another hour to play at another table.

Deck turned negative. AP and his friend sat out for a "bathroom break" so only 1st base and me got dealt in, deck tray almost filled to the brim. TC became zero. 1st base got dealt a hand of three low combination cards that added to <15. I got dealt 3,3. Dealer showed a 6. First time ever doing something like this, (was actually sorta proud I thought of it on the spot), I decided to stay on 3,3 so I don't split and run into the shuffle card. Dealer peeled a bit and ended up winning, 1st base got really mad that I stayed on a 6 and started telling everyone around. Then she sat out. So I went heads up. Decided to go from min bet to 2 x $200 (was already holding back due to the massive heat).

Pit boss at first was very confused at the stay. After the round, the pit boss was .... Not sure if she figured out why I stayed on 3,3.

There's no point to this thread. Just sharing this event with you guys.
Well perhaps next time you can stay on your 14/15 versus a 10 and pray for another round if it's decent.

**Freightman** · 11-21-2016, 04:08 AM

So, knowing there's massive heat, you casually pass on your 6 on your min bet, start with a minus true, get to 0, end up with a massive plus with .5 to 1.0 deck left, with subtlety raise from table min of 5,10 or 25 to heads up 2x200. The not so stupid critter with perhaps, a temporary brain fart eventually figures the move out - so why be so subtle, or shy?

Here's the thing. If the pit (let's assume for shits and giggles) knows you're a solid player, and you know there's a shitload of heat, why reemphasuze the point. Critters take far more exception to pigs vs. The guy who patiently shears. N'est pas? One hand in the scheme of things means nothing.

Now, having said that, there is a certain joy in having another counter take a whiz break, only to come back to see another counter blasting away at shoes end. I've had that pleasure more than once.

**Meistro123** · 11-21-2016, 04:58 AM

your expected return for standing a stiff against 6 is -.15 your expected return for splitting is is +.2

so let's say your bet is $10 you will expect to lose $1.5 instead of gaining $2. this is a $3.5 swing. while you should be able to make $12 (roughly) in expected value by making your 2x200 end of shoe bet this also entails a lot of risk and variance. I think you are better off just splitting your threes and resolving your hand. presumably there is only some % chance that playing your 33 out will trigger the shuffle.

I stood on 5 once, but this was in a no hole card game where I had next card knowledge of a ten. The dealer had a low card. So if I hit I would only get 15 anyway, and then stand, so obviously it is better to leave the ten for the dealer. there was a ploppy beside me playing 5 squares of table max, but he was mostly irrelevant to my equation.

and of course you should never play with another counter, and never talk about counting at the table

RS · 11-21-2016, 05:02 AM

Not sure of specifics, but sounds like a pretty smart move to stand on 3,3vs6 with min bet to be able to get another round at max bet. Not saying it's smart heat or longevity wise, as I'd never throw out my first max bet so late in the shoe. Subtle? Doesn't seem like it.

One thing I like about AP is finding out the different nuances and intricate details (that matter) to make a game or play significantly better. Or rather, the not-so-obvious stuff. It seems like many APs have the fundamental knowledge of all the stuff they're doing, but frequently miss the big picture. Everyone knows about all the obvious stuff.

**moo321** · 11-21-2016, 06:47 AM

Pit Boss throws out a feeler about you counting, and you respond by admitting guilt by saying "you can't count shoe games"?

You're thinking like YOU, not like a ploppy. What would a muggle do if accused of counting? Would they say some half-sharp shit like "you can't count shoe games"?

NO! They'd probably assume it was a joke. When pressed they would look at the boss like he was crazy for accusing him of cheating. And a smart ploppy wouldn't say much.

**moo321** · 11-21-2016, 06:49 AM

Meistro123, your post might contain too much info on how a move looks.

**Freightman** · 11-21-2016, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by moses

Two questions to ask yourself. Is it me? Or is it them? If a pit boss throws out a feeler to see if you are counting. It's YOU and you''ve been had. There is no facial expressions to save your hindparts or no well said quips that suddenly change their mind. Move on. Be glad you got to live another day.

It would be nice to here the genius methods of not getting into the situation in the first place. It's likely the way you spread and/or the way you are playing your hands.

Huh?
Doesn't everyone pass their 6? The dealer has a bust card!

**Three** · 11-24-2016, 08:08 AM

Two comments:
1) Why in the hell did you stay when you knew there would be no good conditions to play for hours?
2) Why give up the store for 1 max bet? What kind of sense does that make?

**20 to 1 Spread** · 11-24-2016, 07:10 PM

1) A 2 hour commute minimum per round trip makes me want to get hours in almost under any situation (at least 2.5 hours) to generate a healthy hourly when factored in drive time.

2) That store has been very tolerant and while I shouldn't push my edges or them like that, I take it for granted sometimes, mostly. Yesterday I got the most heat from the PB with no exchanges of words but rather death glances following my every move. My partner and I were spreading $10 to 2 x $350 (averaged between us) with $0 to $200 sidebets. We ended the shoe flat betting $25 into a negative count and left afterwards. Even I felt that was too much for me. Regretted it. Hopefully over thinking and paranoia from AP perspective. Taking a few days off with the Thanksgiving holiday and will return this weekend.

**Three** · 11-24-2016, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

1) A 2 hour commute minimum per round trip makes me want to get hours in almost under any situation (at least 2.5 hours) to generate a healthy hourly when factored in drive time.

Playing is not the only worthwhile pursuit. Scouting is very important and what a better time to spend a few hours scouting dealers for errors pen and other exploitable traits, etc then when playing is a poor option. You never know you might find something worth playing while scouting. I found a flashing dealer once and actually got to play on that shift. You might find the time spent scouting not just BJ but the whole casino is the most valuable time you spend in the casino.

**20 to 1 Spread** · 11-25-2016, 02:04 AM

I was going to take a break from counting for the thanksgiving holiday. but my partner was in the area of the casino and wanted to do a (2-3) hour session, so I obliged and drove out at 11pm.

An hour later after arriving and within 15 minutes of play, I finally got the tap. I honestly deserved from my game play style and zero usage of cover etc. Regardless it was only a matter of time before my cumulative win caught up with me.

My partner got caught in the cross fire (he hasn't won nearly enough for the ban given how much I've won IMO).

Best thanksgiving present from my favorite store. I thought it was the gem that would've kept giving. How foolish and naive of me to think this would've lasted for a quarter million.

/Meaningless-Venting-Thread incoming in the next few days

**blueman** · 11-25-2016, 09:42 PM

I thought i had a similar place to this. I would only play there on weekends, as that was the only days (fri sat) that they opened their DD. It was crappy 1 deck pen H17, but did have surrender. But zero heat, and i mean zero.

I would play 25 to 2x475 (to avoid purple action call) i played every weekend for about 6 weeks, for as long as i could, unless i hit for 3k+ then i would either take a break n come back in a few hours or leave.

I think i got in about 45 hours of total play time in those 6 weekends, with zero heat along the way.

One day, i go in and after 4 hours i am down 20k. I plan on just playing forever since i was down so much as i thought it wouldnt look bad like i was just chasing my losses.

8 hours into the session i end up in the profit of 5k. (So i take a 25k upswing) they only kept 10k in purple in their rack, so the PB had to call 3 separate fills for me (about 2 hours apart) it was like i had all of their big chips from the back(very small casino)

No back off i leave due to fatigue. The next time i come back on a Friday, NO DOUBLE DECK. i sit at a video roulette machine just to observe the pit and to see if they would open it. Then, a PB who wasnt there before came up to me and told me that they could no longer accept my bj action as it was too much for their limits. He told me that he was the only person in this casino that knew how to count and that he watched video of me from my last 25k session and that i was very talented.

So, gem gone. I ended up winning about 50k.

After that, they no longer even have a double deck game, and they increased their pen on 8 deck to 3.0 lol. And i thought that place would last a quarter mill......