Originally Posted by moses
Long term experience is not an indicator of ability. I've known several experienced incompetents over the years. The educated guy is the winner - in theory.
There is no correct answer , one has experiences and the other learn the craft and can maximize his/her potential. The bad thing is the latter is starting late and missed opportunities and bj turns to crap(pun intended). If one practiced until perfect ,he may missed a bunch of opportunities that doesn't required 100 % perfect play. i was playing a very good game with hi lo with score over 100 plus ,no heat . If i was to learn some level 3 ,3d count i would have missed the chance to play it. if i have to learn the perfect strategy( 85%-90% was good enough) to play another game then i would not have made a good score that game got burnt months later on. There are a lot of IFS. As an AP ,even a wannabe one i considered myself an opportunist .Ultimately i look at the $$$ sign. I maybe not be a good player but i did it efficiently and maximizing profit is my goal.
Slightly off tangent to what Moses is alluding to. I think it is very safe that Moses would commend you on your work ethic. Moses is alluding that the the winner is the one who helps himself - that us the one who educates himself. The experienced guy only broke even over the long haul, because the experienced one was not able or willing to help himself - which is where I think Moses is heading. Some of us work hard to imprive, others don't.
Somewhat strange thing happen here this site nowadays. I wanted to ask Norm, but didn't (not to bother him).
Number of new posts (not new threads) dropped. Wondered "new moderator (such as Don S)" inaugurated.
But, a few posters keep biting, chewing one guy, bullying (I might be wrong, though) him.
Just a few productive posts recently (by Don S).
Would you trade a few light jokes without any mean intent directed at you, for good advice from a few players, that could possibly prevent you from either having to downsize your level of play or possibly going bankrupt?
Could you be possibly missing some?
Last edited by BoSox; 11-13-2016 at 06:27 AM.
I am including a post I made this morning on Wong's site. This was my response to Zee who dismissed my earlier post 3 days ago.
Zee, I think your calculations suck big time. Starting with that six deck game above with that $40k bank that you currently have. You have 133.3 max bets to work with, debatable, but for argument sake fine. In your mind keeping this so called security blanket of yours is more than sufficient. Not taking into account you already purchased a car, and openly expressed desires to continually enjoy the fruits of your labor, not by small withdrawals by any means, is not only going catch up with you, but just might completely demoralize you in to quitting the game entirely.
I turned pro a while back. I was very concerned about withdrawing funds and its affect on RoR. I had only used BR funds for travel expenses including all vehicle maintenance in the past but usually kept the smaller bills I returned from a trip with. That was usually used on groceries. I had been trying to build 100K BR to feel safe enough going pro to be able to withdraw for living expenses. After enough play I felt that $80K was enough and sim data confirmed for the game I played a RoR of .01% required about a $73K BR. That still didn't make me that comfortable with an $80K BR because I wanted to be above that after a horrible run. While it is extremely rare to see a downswing of $8K when it happens it can happen in a day or less. I think I have only seen it twice but both happened abruptly. Anyway I started living of the winnings at an $80K BR and had a 6 week period that I basically broke even (a small and insignificant profit). Eventually I had a $100K BR despite using winnings to pay living expenses. After that I upped my life style a bit. Now my BR is much more than $100K. Before a bunch of tweaks to make increasing my BR more certain a 100 billion round said the worst case downswing was just over $100K. After greatly improving the efficiency of my game I haven't ran a sim to get another number. It just doesn't concern me. I figure understanding a worst case scenario as far worse than reality is healthy. A mistake in the other direction could be fatal to my career.
The point is until you try to live off your winnings you can't understand the effect of using your a portion of your BR growth has on RoR. You need to have about 50% more BR to use a portion of your winnings. It should be a small percentage until your BR grows enough. Once a bad swing combined with the withdrawal from BR doesn't affect your RoR to a noticeable extent then you are finally comfortable using larger portions of winnings. You have to remember the more rounds you get in the more certain you will be to being close to expectation. Good runs eventually are reduced to insignificance as the denominator gets big enough. This allows the withdrawals at a high enough BR but would make experiencing a bad run that you know is coming at some point at a smaller BR very problematic. It is no longer balanced by the good run you withdrew and if the drop in BR causes drawdown you have really screwed yourself when you spent to much of your profits. I don't bother budgeting percentages of profits as that is not how life happens. I just take care of my living expenses and try to keep them down. I could tell at what point my living expenses balanced with a large enough BR for a working dynamic.
You know sustained runs of 2 SD down are rare but coming. You may even se worse sustained runs. You must prepare for them.
Don't worry about Zee. He's got a thick skin.
Look at it this way. Do you know how to scratch your balls? I know I do. In fact, I would suggest that most of the guys on the site know how to scratch their balls. In all fairness to Zee, the first time asking how to scratch your own balls may well have been legit. However, after 6 plus times asking info on how to scratch your own balls, the desire wanes to answer the question.
And so it is when it comes answering questions on betting ramps, wheather to double or split, double for kess, especially when the answer to the repetitively asked questions are easily found.
Last, but not least, Zee likes to be the centre of attention, and thus, your concern of bullying is not ground in fact. Zee loves to egg on the crowd. Zee drives activity on every board that he is on. He is, in fact, very talented in that regard.
I kinda like Zee myself. He seems to be a decent natured goofball, but so damned lazy. I recall suggesting (offer still stands) to share a coffee or good glass if wine - with 2 conditions.
1. Not in a casino
2. Not in a rub and tug joint (my wife would not be impressed)
I'm extremely disappointed that Zee has not shared any of his rub and tug stories recently. They displayed exceptional entertainment value.
As for TThree, he has, overall, displayed remarkable brevity of late, and I commend his efforts in that regard. I am, however, disappointed that he has chosen not to share any of his rub and tug exploits
T3
Nice post above - question. Your sims on withdrawal of funds has to be based on some arbritary fugure, which I trust provides for a decent standard of living. What are your factors for increasing or decreasing that number. Do you have a formula for skill miming excess funds?
Zee is our village idiot, and we like him. I respect his ability to ask questions to things he should perhaps already know. That takes more balls than I usually have. He often asks questions that I never thought about which has helped me understand things better.
The closest I get to rub and tug sort of stuff is taking pics with the chipndales on Fremont, lol.
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