Month 2 Check-In

[BoSox]

RE: Post #16 by Z'

The game, as presented, without RSA or LS and marginal penetration,
is not good for your spread. The following metrics are not precise:
your average bet with a 10-1 spread will be about $17 Win percentage
will be around .60% Win per 100 hands = 0.7 units ($105)
D.I. = < 3.2 R.O.R with $10,000 = 47% and with $80,000 = 22%

ZMF, thank you for pointing this out to Zee, especially those ROR numbers. Can you imagine his risk associated with a $40K bank that he thinks is more than sufficient, to where he can also go on spending sprees when he gets up 8 to 10K. I tried to point this out to him on green chip this week which he thought was nonsense. Unless he can replenish his bank he is in for a rude awakening.

[BoSox]

Moses, my point is why would someone at lower stakes use a spread just big enough to stay above water because he is afraid of losing a max bet. A good player "not Zee" even with say a 5% ROR who keeps his bank relatively the same and spends the profits, will inevitably reach a point where they have to downsize, or go broke. Aside from all of this for him to use that 10 unit bet the true count will have to be +12

[Freightman]

Moses, my point is why would someone at lower stakes use a spread just big enough to stay above water because he is afraid of losing a max bet. A good player "not Zee" even with say a 5% ROR who keeps his bank relatively the same and spends the profits, will inevitably reach a point where they have to downsize, or go broke.

Bosox raises a good point. Most ror calculations, unless input to the contrary, assume total reinvestment of profit.
Spending all profit is a recipe for bankroll degradation.

[Three]

Yes. Bosox is a bright guy. I was just having some fun with him. No one is ever going to fix Zee. He is like a rare bird that will fly backwards. A rarity, meant to savor and enjoy.

Now your quoting Wiley Coyote.

[stopgambling]

say a 5% ROR who keeps his bank relatively the same and spends the profits, will inevitably reach a point where they have to downsize, or go broke.

cumulative ROR. very important to know if one is going to do it in the long term.

[BoSox]

There is that term again. A month? A year? All night long? 1,000 hands. Tell me when to stop adding zero's.

There was a guy that played blackjack in a casino everyday for 20 years and broke even. The was another guy that ran the Sims, read the books, and played a million hands on Verite but never played one hand in a casino? Who made more? T3 and Freighter don't answer.

That is an easy one ZeeBabar,will win, if he moves again will play every day till he is 88 will easily beat out the man who only played on verite. He and his wife will both get his and her BMW'S on his point balance totals.

[Freightman]

That is an easy one ZeeBabar,will win, if he moves again will play every day till he is 88 will easily beat out the man who only played on verite. He and his wife will both get his and her BMW'S on his point balance totals.

Methinks you're wrong, but I was asked not to answer.

[Freightman]

Okay. Go ahead and answer. T3 too.

The guy who played every day and broke even did not win or lose. The guy who practiced every day, with nothing at risk, neither won or lost. It was a tie.

Oh, and if you're tying to make a point about Zee, he won't get it, or won't care if he does.

[BoSox]

So, back to blackjack. Who invested more time? and who is now the better player?

I do not know who invested more time. Though there is no question about who is the better player, and it is definitely not the guy who ran the sims, read all the books, and played a million hands of verite. It was ZeeBabar who played rated every day for twenty years without a red flag!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Three]

The guy who practiced every day, with nothing at risk, neither won or lost. It was a tie.

I knew it was a tie but didn't get his point until you said risked nothing.

Basically when a player is learning he worries about not risking to much. He plays an off the top promo and regrets not leaving when he was at his peak for the day. Then way down the road he knows so much more and when he looks back the only regret he has about the promo is he didn't play longer. He regrets not pushing the big bets out when it was called for. These kinds of things tend to be his only regrets. Know the proper bets and for the love of God don't be afraid to push out the most aggressive ones that are called for. These are your best chances to make money. You can't win them all but n0 for any individual bet size is inversely proportion to the bets size relative to your other bets. In other words those rarely made huge bets reach their n0 in a lot fewer bets than a small bets. n0 = (1,000*SD/EV)^2. The lowest advantages have ridiculously high n0 for their betting bin and the highest advantages have a small n0. Bet frequency helps to make things more even when it comes to total rounds rather than rounds that the betting bin's bet was made. Not making those large bets when appropriate to do so and at full strength really hurts you more than you know.

[Freightman]

Interesting responses. So next question. You can make an even money bet in the sportsbook. Only it's 20 years later. Now they are going to both play at the casino everyday for the next 5 years. You have to bet $10k or pass. Would you bet? If so, on which one? Suppose, for whatever reason, passing is not an option. Who gets the bet?

No. You can't say the smarter one.

Can I answer yet

[Freightman]

Of course.

So, the win or loss happens in 25 years. If you're referring to Zee, he's likely dead. I'll likely be dead, so I can't collect. However, if everyone is alive, then we have an interesting puzzle.

If the guy who us simming blackjack was reading and simming chess, a game that requires no distraction, concentration and discipline, the reader is the clear winner. Now, blackjack and s a game if seasoning and distraction. Our chump has the initial advantage, since he is, at least, familiar with casino hustle bustle. However, in theory, our reader will get seasoned and will clearly beat the chump after 5 years.

Would I bet 10k? I don't think so. I have no clear demonstrable way of evaluating the reader. He might read and sim, but could easily be clueless and incompetent. 10k would represent a high a risk of bankroll on an unknown, but educated reader.

I could go on, but to get to the answer your oooking for, you'll need to change the Question?

[stopgambling]

There is that term again. A month? A year? All night long? 1,000 hands. Tell me when to stop adding zero's.

There was a guy that played blackjack in a casino everyday for 20 years and broke even. The was another guy that ran the Sims, read the books, and played a million hands on Verite but never played one hand in a casino? Who made more? T3 and Freighter don't answer.

i am only trying to helpful without being rude . i don't understand your post.