Where would you draw the line...

[ZeeBabar]

Back in the 80's when most games in Las Vegas were single deck or DD, there were BJ players who were concerned with the advent of 4 deck games and saying they would quit BJ if there were no SD games to play. Then came to 6 deck games and then the 8 deck games and then the ASM and the CSM and the 6-5 BJ's and BJ variants and NMSE and technology ....and where good games were abundant, we now have to go seeking for playable games that come and go, we hunt for dealers that provide a bit more penetration...some spend more time "scouting" than playing. At what point would you give it up?

many of the great AP's (not the ones in denial) have gone to book writing, teaching, finance industry and other careers....

Would you play if all games were 6/5? Would you play if all games were CSM? Would you play if all games had 50% pen? Would you play if all games were 8 decks or 10 decks? I suppose the math would say that you could win but the techniques would have to be different, perhaps only teamed playmight succeed.

Just a rant...

[RS]

Games will always be changing. I'll continue playing as long as I can play and think it's worth it. If a 10-deck game with 50% penetration is worth it to me, then yes, I'll play it (all things considered). If it's not worth it, then I won't play it. Same goes with any other advantage play. If I think it's worth it, then I'll play it. If I don't think it's worth it, then I won't play it. "Worth it" includes opportunity cost. Perhaps every game in the future is a shit-game compared to today's standards. I wouldn't play a shit-game today because I can play better games. If all games in the future are shit-game, even though I wouldn't have played those games in 2016, I may find myself playing those games in 2020 or 2030.

[Three]

You can beat almost any casino game with the right conditions. BJ is the easiest to beat but also has one of the smallest edges. Most of the AP's I know that got backed off and quit BJ make far more money at other opportunities in the casino that are almost impossible to detect when done properly. They thank the casinos for killing BJ for them as that is what made them able to make so much more at these other opportunities. There is a saying that the casinos might want to consider, "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know." Or "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." The casino is trading 2 enemies they can see that can hurt them only a little because they can deal with them for an enemy they can't see that is going to hurt them ten fold worse than the enemy they can see. Casinos are cutting into their customer base, cutting into their profit per table and losing more money to AP's by doing these things. Accountants are clueless as to the actual effects of there penny pinching measures. Most of the time the unseen cost is 10 to 100 fold more than the theoretical savings seen on paper.

[Exoter175]

I guess I could say I would never play anything 6/5 or through a CSM, but like T3 said, most everything is beatable, you just need a trained eye on what to look for. His comment speaks directly to what I've been doing for a little bit now, in tandem counting. When I travel, and I travel often and for long periods of time. I go from casino to casino to casino, scouting opportunities for machine plays, blackjack rules/vulnerabilities, any AP'able promotions and such, writing down everything I see and cataloguing entire regions for AP ventures and vulnerabilities. I'd rather play blackjack because I actually enjoy the repetition of counting, but sometimes I don't find a good enough game to play for my time, whereas I might have a more than fine machine play or promotional play to use to my advantage that will make more $/hr than the given table available. Sometimes I'm in a casino for 30 minutes before I leave, sometimes I'll spend the better part of 2 days analyzing ever detail available.

Some days, even a terribly negative game like a 6:5 H17 game dealt out of a CSM can bring about a positive result, simply because of available promotions. Just last year at an itty-bitty Wisconsin casino, they ran a promotion on an otherwise "meh" game. Receive $21 in freeplay for every 21 dealt to you, including draws and doubles. No limitation on number of awards, no limitation on hours, and you can basically tell it was intended to drive people in after work for a kind of "happy hour" promotion with the bar and grill, but there we were in a 24 hour casino offering this promotion. It was so small it maybe had 6 or 7 tables all together, and I believe 2 of them were blackjack. They had this thing that, because of how small it was, they had to keep a certain number of games open (or perhaps it was a gaming regulation thing) in any case, my partner and I split up, me on 1 table HU, he on the other table HU. Periodically we might have had maybe 3 guys total hop in and try to play, but other than that, we sat there and ran HU playing $5BJ against the dealer on a "beatable" game with a very, very minor spread from about 10PM til 4 or 5 am at a rate of about 150-170HPH.

I'll let someone like T3 run the numbers on that shindig, but as you'd imagine, we came out of that like bandits, and I don't think a 6:5 or CSM adjustment to that game, really would have hurt us all that much in that span. While the numbers might suggest it hurting us by about 1.4%, the reality was it was still immensely profitable to play, and so we did, and that carried over for a few days and nights while we were in the upper Midwest. Unfortunately for us, we only found it on the tail end of the promotion or we'd have probably robbed the place blind with that offering.

[Exoter175]

Part of the problem of sitting at a blackjack table is it prevents one from seeking other investment opportunities. Usually, given enough data, I will find value and a pattern of consistency.

Honestly, this is a dilemma I run into frequently. Where I spend my time matters. Perhaps a bit less with a team of guys to work with, but it still matters. There's so many different ways to make a buck in a casino, that to limit yourself to simply sitting down at a blackjack table to count cards could actually be an inefficient move for me in a given day or moment. Likewise, there's times I'm on a different AP move where I have to be cognizant of my time and money being put to use and whether or not I could stand to make more by doing something else at that moment.

There are times in my travels that I might have to go 800 miles before finding anything to efficiently AP, and sometimes I have to sit down and grind those opportunities out just to make "ends meet" so we can profit daily. Which sometimes means playing subpar games at small edges that I usually wouldn't play otherwise. Other times, I might find myself tied down in ABQ for nearly 10 days straight, running from one venture to another, and having to run shifts with my team to take care of all of the action.

Ultimately, I guess I draw the line at a mix between profitability and sustainability. If I can't make enough to pay myself and the guys around me a decent chunk, while taking care of expenses, I can't really "afford" to stay on the road.

[Three]

Well Ex, it seems you do things like I do. I don't put much time in counting cards but I get more rounds in than people that put a lot of time in. I see sitting at a slow table a waste of time. I can't find a lucrative opportunity if I am counting cards at a pitiful hourly. I count cards at a huge hourly and seek other opportunities when counting is not worth it. Scouting allows you to have a good idea of what you will find and when and where you will find it. I don't want to go into too much detail. In your promo 6:5 didn't hurt you at all. You gave up $1.5 for every $5 you bet that made a winning BJ. You got paid $21 for every 21 including a BJ so just for the BJ hands you got paid 3:2 total on a $70 bet and at $75 you are being paid slightly less than 3:2 for a BJ. That is 14 times your $5 min bet. Plus all the other non BJ 21's win or push getting you $21 each. At $5 you got paid 27:5 for a BJ. That's 5.2:1.

[BJGenius007]

Back in the 80's when most games in Las Vegas were single deck or DD, there were BJ players who were concerned with the advent of 4 deck games and saying they would quit BJ if there were no SD games to play. Then came to 6 deck games and then the 8 deck games and then the ASM and the CSM and the 6-5 BJ's and BJ variants and NMSE and technology ....and where good games were abundant, we now have to go seeking for playable games that come and go, we hunt for dealers that provide a bit more penetration...some spend more time "scouting" than playing. At what point would you give it up?

many of the great AP's (not the ones in denial) have gone to book writing, teaching, finance industry and other careers....

Would you play if all games were 6/5? Would you play if all games were CSM? Would you play if all games had 50% pen? Would you play if all games were 8 decks or 10 decks? I suppose the math would say that you could win but the techniques would have to be different, perhaps only teamed playmight succeed.

Just a rant...

The economies of scale decides how the casinos operate their BJ tables with max profits in mind. As now a typical casino operates their BJ tables as the following:

$100 minimum table - hand shuffled
$25 minimum table - ASM
$5/$10/$15 minimum table - CSM
6:5 BJ pay table - drunk and horny party goers.

I believe there will be always tables that use hand shuffled and ASM in the far future. They may raise the table minimum in the top 2 tiers but they will always exist to entice rich players who want the better odds and the chance to beat the house.

[Exoter175]

Well Ex, it seems you do things like I do. I don't put much time in counting cards but I get more rounds in than people that put a lot of time in. I see sitting at a slow table a waste of time. I can't find a lucrative opportunity if I am counting cards at a pitiful hourly. I count cards at a huge hourly and seek other opportunities when counting is not worth it. Scouting allows you to have a good idea of what you will find and when and where you will find it. I don't want to go into too much detail. In your promo 6:5 didn't hurt you at all. You gave up $1.5 for every $5 you bet that made a winning BJ. You got paid $21 for every 21 including a BJ so just for the BJ hands you got paid 3:2 total on a $70 bet and at $75 you are being paid slightly less than 3:2 for a BJ. That is 14 times your $5 min bet. Plus all the other non BJ 21's win or push getting you $21 each. At $5 you got paid 27:5 for a BJ. That's 5.2:1.

I mean, if I"m forced with the choice of "Do nothing" and "Count for low hourly" I'm probably going to count so long as I feel that the Risk of exposure is low, but if there is any other option, including other AP plays, or scouting, I'm going to choose the other or scouting options. I put a lot of stock into knowledge and scouting, I feel its the most underrated part of our jobs, and one of the most important.

[Joe Mama]

Would you play if all games were 6/5? NO

Would you play if all games were CSM? NO

Would you play if all games had 50% pen? NO

Would you play if all games were 8 decks or 10 decks? MAYBE

[Freightman]

Would you play if all games were 6/5? NO

Would you play if all games were CSM? NO

Would you play if all games had 50% pen? NO

Would you play if all games were 8 decks or 10 decks? MAYBE

8 decks, given proper conditions.p, yes.
10 decks - never.

[Three]

Would you play if all games were 6/5? NO

There would have to be some other factors that more than made up for 6:5.

Would you play if all games were CSM? NO

If I had an advantage. There are lots of circumstances that could give you an advantage at a CSM.

Would you play if all games had 50% pen? NO

Again with enough other things to make the game worthwhile.

Would you play if all games were 8 decks or 10 decks? MAYBE

I already do but I haven't seen any 10 deck games yet. Boy would I get a lot of advantage bets in a row on one of those.

[Freightman]

I already do but I haven't seen any 10 deck games yet. Boy would I get a lot of advantage bets in a row on one of those.

Not that I'm crazy about 8 deckers, my biggest shoes have come from them.

[Exoter175]

I'd had to choose the "Do nothing" option. If I'm counting/playing then my opposition may be watching/reviewing. So that only happens on my terms/my game.

I feel the same way most of the time, but when you're on the road quite a bit, Longevity isn't as big of concern as it is at home. When I find that a place might be lacking in "game protection" I'll allow the play of a kind of "passable" game with my team if I'm positive we'll get away with it, and positive this is our only chance in the next day or two of making money. Both my partners, like myself, like to make the profit and live on the the profits as we go, so sometimes you want to dip your toes in the water when you feel there might be a drought coming on as you pass through a state or two without much to offer.