12 v 6

[Cardguy]

This is mostly just to clarify my play on negative indices.

6D S17 HiLo 1 deck dealt RC -6 so TC is -1.2

Flooring is generally preferred to rounding or truncating so I floor this to TC -2. Index in HiLo for 12 v 6 is -1 so the EV maximizing play is to HIT. If RC was -5, then TC would be -1.0 and I would stand.

Is all this correct? Would the experienced players hit at TC -1.2 or stand to avoid showing an unusual play when the change is EV is so small? I've always assumed that hitting here makes you look like an idiot who doesn't know basic strategy and is therefore not only positive EV, but also good for camo.

[BJGenius007]

This is mostly just to clarify my play on negative indices.

6D S17 HiLo 1 deck dealt RC -6 so TC is -1.2

Flooring is generally preferred to rounding or truncating so I floor this to TC -2. Index in HiLo for 12 v 6 is -1 so the EV maximizing play is to HIT. If RC was -5, then TC would be -1.0 and I would stand.

Is all this correct? Would the experienced players hit at TC -1.2 or stand to avoid showing an unusual play when the change is EV is so small? I've always assumed that hitting here makes you look like an idiot who doesn't know basic strategy and is therefore not only positive EV, but also good for camo.

The variance on 12 v 2, 12 v 3, 12 v 4, 12 v 5 and 12 v 6 are very high because almost all counting systems don't track 8 and 9. If you saw clumps of 8 and 9 already, then definitely don't hit 12, and it makes you look like a ploppy.

In general, you can index play on your 12 if casinos think you are idiot. BS really don't cost you too much.

[Phoebe]

Flooring is generally preferred to rounding or truncating so I floor this to TC -2.

No choice. If index is for flooring, you must floor.
I thing that unusual play don't matter (ploppies do it). Change in play not much more (bet is far far more critical).
For all hands for wich I will eventually later change play I first "hesitate".
Loss ? On next change "Wrong play or Unlucky, I persist"
Win ? On next change "I play well or I had luck. I don't try again"

[Bigdaddy]

A couple of points -

First - Regarding the index for 12 v. 6 in a S17 6-deck game (Hi-Lo), Wong's index is 0 for this play (Professional Blackjack, table on p.46). So you theoretically should hit if the TC is below 0 (just like 16 v. 10).

Second - I think you'd be crazy to use this index play in a face up game with other people at the table. The pinch of extra EV (at presumably minimum bet), is in no way worth the commotion that will ensue. IMO, the only time this index should be used is in a face-down (pitch) game. If it gets noticed as the hands are resolved, then you can just say it was a mistake - you weren't paying attention, etc...

[bec88]

Get to know local ploppies and how they play. If I know a certain play is going to bring too much ploppy heat then sometimes I just let it go and forget about it. Doesn't happen that often and min bets are out. In the pitch games, part of the time you will get away with it. You wont bust the 12 and then usually the other players will never know/pay enough attention, especially if the dealer busts anyway. If you do bust it, put up your flame shield!!

[Tarzan]

You would hit it at TC-1 with one deck remaining and at TC-2 at four decks remaining but there's a catch. It's possible to have a count that is technically TC+2, +3 in which you are in the zone to hit, have a count that appears to be TC-1,-2 in which you would stand, and it's even possible to have what appears to be a neutral to negative count in which the optimal play is to double! This has to do with middle cards in the remainder, specifically (8,9). It's a negative expectation, losing hand that you can't win. You can only make it slightly less negative in the long haul. If the count is close to TC-1, it's not going to make a lot of difference either way, hit or stand. I've done that... I've seriously pissed off other players at the table by hitting it, freaked a few people out even worse by doubling it. Hitting it is a great way to chase others off the table. I know this from experience, quite recent experience even.

[Zach Black]

I think the reaction of other players varies greatly. If playing in a casino with Spanish 21, the players are more accustomed to hitting this hand and this spills over to blackjack.

[Tarzan]

It's a negative expectation hand off the top of the deck and stays that way for the most part. At the point of having a sufficient surplus of {6-9} in an even distribution, it becomes positive EV, however slight. Since (8) is more than double the value of a {T}, and (9) is more than three times the value of the {T} when hitting this hand, this increases the spread between hitting and doubling with enough surplus (8,9) in the remainder. When in the zone to double, you have a minimum bet out there anyway, so it's not like it's a big deal. This is also completely undetectable using Hi-Lo, etc., so my post has little value to anyone really. I could lay out the details of specific deck composition using my count on how to play this hand, but it would be of no help to anyone and possibly even confuse you on something that is not all that relevant.

[Phoebe]

Thanks. I removed my question in then meantime because answer is obvious (at one moment it becomes positive EV)

[Meistro123]

I recommend against making the wrong decision for cover purposes. The vast majority of casino staff have no idea how to play a winning blackjack game in the first place. Making the correct index plays is more likely to make them think you are a losing player than playing incorrectly. Hit your 12.

[ZeeBabar]

I recommend against making the wrong decision for cover purposes. The vast majority of casino staff have no idea how to play a winning blackjack game in the first place. Making the correct index plays is more likely to make them think you are a losing player than playing incorrectly. Hit your 12.

I hit when the count calls for it. There was one time last night when I hit and busted ( a few groaned) with a 10, and then the dealer flipped another 6 and a 10 and busted. The guy at first deck playing $50 (I was playing $10) chucked 2 reds to me, grinning.

Ploppies get upset when you hit any 12 between 3-6 as the dealer upcard, regardless of the count. I hit but then again, at my stakes (usually a minimum bet out), there is not much scrutiny at that level.