How often should a player get Blackjack?

[seriousplayer]

Lets say you are playing at a crowded table dealing about 50-60 hands per shoe. Assuming you are playing a six deck game. Statistically you will average about 80 hands per hour. Every hour that you play those 80 hands you are going to get approximately four Blackjack an hour. From what I understood you will get a Blackjack about once every twenty one hands. So 80/21 = 3.8 approximately 4. Suppose you play two hours so the player is expected to get about 8 Blackjacks. There are some mathematical issues I want to clear up. I want to learn the mathematics of the game. What are the odds of the players getting 14 or more Blackjack over two or four hours of play? From what I understand I've heard a lot of stories that APs could lose $3000 within minutes. Okay, if this is the case what are the odds that an AP could win $3000 within minutes?

[DSchles]

You're all over the place with silly questions. Lose $3,000 within minutes? Might that depend on how much you're betting? Would you like to give us a clue?

What are the odds of the playerS getting 14 or more blackjacks? How many players??? Over two or fours hours of play? Which is it? Two hours or four hours?

Ask SPECIFIC, unambiguous questions that make sense, please.

Don

[seriousplayer]

You're all over the place with silly questions. Lose $3,000 within minutes? Might that depend on how much you're betting? Would you like to give us a clue?

What are the odds of the playerS getting 14 or more blackjacks? How many players??? Over two or fours hours of play? Which is it? Two hours or four hours?

Ask SPECIFIC, unambiguous questions that make sense, please.

Don

Oops sorry!

Max bet $60 through the whole shoe (1-12 bet spread)

How many players?
6 players

For both two and four hours.

[blueman]

Cvcx will tell you all kinds of numbers. Thank you norm

[Dog Hand]

Lets say you are playing at a crowded table dealing about 50-60 hands per shoe. Assuming you are playing a six deck game. Statistically you will average about 80 hands per hour. Every hour that you play those 80 hands you are going to get approximately four Blackjack an hour. From what I understood you will get a Blackjack about once every twenty one hands. So 80/21 = 3.8 approximately 4. Suppose you play two hours so the player is expected to get about 8 Blackjacks. There are some mathematical issues I want to clear up. I want to learn the mathematics of the game. What are the odds of the players getting 14 or more Blackjack over two or four hours of play? From what I understand I've heard a lot of stories that APs could lose $3000 within minutes. Okay, if this is the case what are the odds that an AP could win $3000 within minutes?

seriousplayer,

From the above, I'll answer these two questions: Given 80 rounds per hour in a 6D shoe game, what is the probability that the player will receive 14 or more BJ's (1) in 2 hours, and (2) in 4 hours.

In a 6D game, the BJ probability on any given hand is p = 2*24*96/(312*311) = 0.0474894880039575, or once every 21.06 rounds.

We can use the Binomial Distribution to calculate the answers to your questions.

If you have Excel, the following equation will provide the answer for 160 rounds (substitute 320 for 4 hours):

=1-BINOM.DIST(13,0.0474894880039575,160,TRUE)

The results show a probability of 14 of more BJ's in 2 hours as 0.0208..., or just over 2%, and in 4 hours as 0.6603... or just over 66%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[ZenMaster_Flash]

As always ... Dog Hand has the goods !

The only thing missing is Z Scores so that

a fuller understanding of probability can be

had.

[UK-21]

How often should a player get Blackjack?

On average, once every twenty-two hands isn't it?