Just a random question before bed at 8am.
To the professionals who live off BJ. What do you think is a fair average across this specific population for life time winnings within 10 years of full time play. $2M? $3M? I assume $1M is fairly easy. But perhaps because I haven't been booted from my locals yet.
I say average, because yes there will be certain APs who are spreading deep like 2 x $3000.
I don't play Blackjack full time. I understand that it depend on what you make per year playing Blackjack. If you do the calculation suppose you make $35,000/year playing Blackjack and you started at age 30 at the age 60 you have over 1 million dollars. $35000 X 30 = $1,050,000. Another example suppose you make $40000 per year playing Blackjack full time. Do the calculation you will be making $1,200,000 at age 60.Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread
To make over $1M in a year you need to make approximately 600/hour. Playing Blackjack at $1000 level is not a typical job that you can just show up in the casino and perform.
I read on the other site that most that wants to go counting bj aim for 100k EV annually. CAN YOU SUSTAIN 10 YEARS and not get booted everywhere? Also you just can not scale your bets from 2 x 400 to 2 x4000 even if the risk is minimal to you. it is certainly not easy . possible? maybe.
I don't know if I am a "pro" or not, but since I retired from a full time job 2 years ago, I've made well over 6 figures via AP play 2 to 3 days per week; enough that I have been deferring social security bennies even though I am over 65. Most of this is from video poker and other AP besides BJ, but BJ card counting is a part of my portfolio.
This really confused me. I tried to think of it for a good bit. Here's my take on it. Perhaps I'm just naive.
A young AP will not take up full time BJ for an income of $35 or even $45K/yr. That's just not realistic (most would realize decent-entry level job is arguably better). But let's not go into that tangent about career choices etc. Let's assume $70K is the min for a young gun. Playing 2 x $250 even on a shoe game and you can achieve this. I'd say the vast majority are playing at least these stakes. The only issue becomes hours. That shouldn't be a problem for the first few years if you rotate enough. Thus it's reasonable that $100K is within the range of income for such players. With all the casinos out there, I'm sure one could do this for 10 years. Yes we're not accounting for all the travel and bans and fatigue, but just on the casino-heat-ban side, manageable no?
Short note of myself - I've put in a lot of time and play mid-tier level stakes. Yes I get a lot of heat sometimes.
Thus I came to the conclusion and wonder of ... I can extract $250K/EV per year out of my locals until I can't. Traveling I spread much harder.
I play 6 days of the week, with light rotation of my stores. Sometimes I just do 30 hours a week at one particular joint.
Expected to clear $100K by mid 2017 (within 1 year of play time).
I think I get away with it because I have a very friendly and kind demeanor. I never fault swear or anything (unless I'm putting on a degen act). And I look really innocent and harmless. But everyone knows a card counter when they see one, but it does help when you look like an enjoyable person to keep around a little longer. Plus I tell great stories to the dealers and pit bosses about my adventures as a poker pro.
TL;DR - Basically if you're a full time BJ AP firing a spread bigger than 2 x $500, you should be able to achieve $100K a year, no?
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 10-15-2016 at 03:24 PM.
I have a similar question as the OP. How realistic is it to make 20k/year?
I'm hoping to make 20k between BJ and low limit hold'em. I wanted to do video poker, but I couldn't figure it out. The pay schedules never looked like they were supposed to so I got frustrated and gave up for now. One of these days I would like to add video poker to my list, but I think I'm gonna need someone to show me because I just don't get it.
If this is even a part time gig, at around 10 hours a week, playing the lowest stake of No-Limit-Hold'em as a female, you should easily be able to achieve $20/hour win rate by playing literally ABC poker with some light thought process. That gets you to $10K by the end of the year with such a schedule. In BJ, with a $20K roll, at around 10% ROR, you can achieve $20K a year with 20 hours a week assuming you're using a level 1 count spreading 2 x $10 to 2 x $200. If the place doesn't let you do that. You can put in a little more time, and hit your $20K year goal under 5% ROR at approx 23 hours a week.
On the real though, my best friends girlfriend who plays poker semi-serious, has a win rate over $50/hour at $3/5 500 CAP. In my eyes, a reasonable player could achieve her skill cap within a year or less of studying and experience. I don't think even the best MALE crushers in the world can do much better than that. Being female on the felt, you just literally have guys throwing donations at you left and right. I sat at the table last week, I saw a guy call her river bet for $80 with 4 high. To just see what she had and paid her off. I texted her, must be nice being female sometimes
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 10-15-2016 at 03:57 PM.
Thank you 20 to 1. My local stores don't tolerate that spread. I did notice someone spreading 25-200 the other night. That's a much higher RoR than I'd currently like to accept, but if they don't 86 him it is a nice profit. I'm going to keep my eyes out and see if he returns without issues. Haha, yes; this one guy called all my raises once last time I played because he wanted to see what I had. I flopped top set and he had nothing. I don't know how to play well yet, I'm still reading books.
You can do a $10 to $150 spread and make roughly $17/hour depending on your game's pen (assuming this is a shoe). That'll be roughly 4.5% ROR for you. you should be to get away with that at the very least. What I would do is go max bet at TC-4 and make your jumps more aggressive. $10 / $50 / $100 / $150 could work.
Things to consider:
$20/hr at $1-3 NLH for a female playing fit-fold poker (premiums only, no junk, no bluffing, simple ABC) is almost guaranteed with borderline average intellect. i'm serious.
$20/hr at BJ spreading $10-150 with a 5% ROR of $20K
The downside to BJ now is that you exhaust your face and name and add up cumulative wins on your players card at your local. You can also do this later when playing for higher stakes.
Poker is arguably more fun because you get to interact with people. Talk. Go on your phone. Read. Listen to music. Heck study blackjack indexes on the side.
HOWEVER - poker is also arguably far more stressful. You always doubt your decisions. You stress on the optimal line. There's a lot of thinking.
Compared to blackjack, your decisions are already made. You just be a robot. You don't think. You just do. And that. I like.
It's a lot easier to play solid BJ for 24 hours than solid poker for 24 hours. Done both.
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 10-15-2016 at 04:47 PM.
Short note of myself - I've put in a lot of time and play mid-tier level stakes. Yes I get a lot of heat sometimes.
Thus I came to the conclusion and wonder of ... I can extract $250K/EV per year out of my locals until I can't. Traveling I spread much harder.
I play 6 days of the week, with light rotation of my stores. Sometimes I just do 30 hours a week at one particular joint.
Expected to clear $100K by mid 2017 (within 1 year of play time).
I think I get away with it because I have a very friendly and kind demeanor. I never fault swear or anything (unless I'm putting on a degen act). And I look really innocent and harmless. But everyone knows a card counter when they see one, but it does help when you look like an enjoyable person to keep around a little longer. Plus I tell great stories to the dealers and pit bosses about my adventures as a poker pro.
TL;DR - Basically if you're a full time BJ AP firing a spread bigger than 2 x $500, you should be able to achieve $100K a year, no?[/QUOTE]
you are making too many assumptions. If you are counting, doing 30 hours a week at one joint, they are not letting you play because of your looks. They are letting you play because they see a life long gold mine in you, as a local addict who is simply holding their money while variance is with you, that you will give it all back plus more. They will not let you play if the variance does not get in their favor in time.
Don S is correct.
"I'm hoping to make 20k between BJ and low limit hold'em. I wanted to do video poker, but I couldn't figure it out. The pay schedules never looked like they were supposed to so I got frustrated and gave up for now. One of these days I would like to add video poker to my list, but I think I'm gonna need someone to show me because I just don't get it."
The Wiz's website has strategies for most any VP game, plug in pay tables it spits out that game's strategy and EV. Bob Dancer (and others) sell software where you can practice with feedback on errors and cost of errors. I do not play games live until I can play with 99.95% accuracy. Positive EV usually comes from free play and mailers.
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