New to BJ, am I concerned over nothing/making errors?

[NewEnglander]

So here's the history:

My aunt in her 20s-30s used to go out with her friends a lot and she learned to play blackjack...really well, I may add. Nothing professional level but she leaves up every time. I don't know anyone else who plays tables and she wanted to teach me, so we joined a $15 table at Mohegan Sun and played away. It was my first time ever, ever sitting at a table. I put in $80, she put in $200. She left up $250 and I left up $190. Now, I may not that when I go to the casino I don't spend an exorbitant amount of money, always under $100. I'm a student, I can't afford it.

The vibe of the table was really good, dealers were a ton of fun. Our rotations ended up with some really good dealers with the exception of one who was boring and one who was kind of rude. We both colored out and left.

Now, I was intrigued because I enjoy cards way more than I thought I would and I don't care for losing money on slots. I read up on a lot of strategy and decided to give it another try to see if I could come up even a tiny bit for a second time. Went back to Mohegan, put in $100 at a $15 table, came up about $30 then ended up losing it all. I had a lot of fun though, sat at some good tables and I enjoy socializing.

Yesterday, I went back and decided to buy in with $100, my personal limit. Came up fairly quickly, was up after some min bets about $60. I usually do incremental betting but I wanted to see if not doing incremental would change anything. I should note that I don't do insurance, match the dealer, or progressive. I just play strategy. Mohegan is hit on 16, stand on S17. Pays 3:2 on BJ.

I noticed the last two times I went that the dealers, literally every one of them whose table I played at, all kept getting consistently high hands. More blackjacks by far than the first time I played and very few 2-6 dealer up cards. Is this just statistics skewing against me? I feel like it's just chance but at the same time it concerns me that I'm doing something wrong.

As I said, I don't play side bets. I tend to do min bet and incremental occasionally (my aunt taught me this). I hit on S17, stand on H17. Double on 10 or 11 (occasionally other people at the table sponsor me, haha). If dealer shows 2-6, I only hit if I have 11 or less, then stand. I religiously read the Wizard of Odds 6-8 deck strategy to make sure I'd be playing correctly/as safely as possible in my favor.

Am I doing something wrong? Or is this just chance? I know you, realistically, won't win every time you go and I never expect to. I'm just confused how I came up so much on my first time playing yet on my other two encounters, dealers seemed to be getting high hands extremely often and the rest of the table was losing pretty hard, myself included.

[paymypush]

Learn basic strategy and stop listening to your aunt. This game has about a .35% house edge with perfect basic strategy. Your post indicates that you don't play optimally so that edge is higher for you.

You are grossly underfunded and will experience negative variance. You have no room for incremental betting and should not be at a $15 table. Your initial success was just beginner's luck as you'll soon discover.

Would it be too cliche if I said stay in school? Good luck.

[NewEnglander]

I did learn basic strategy. She follows basic strategy, too. I don't intend to do this for more than anything but the occasional casino outing with friends seeing as I live very close to Mohegan/Foxwoods. But while I am doing it, I'd like to come up.

So essentially my question is: is the variance I experienced normal?

[Bodarc]

is the variance I experienced normal?

Yes

[NewEnglander]

Yes

Thanks for giving me an answer. That's essentially what I wanted to know. It just seemed like a bunch of statistics that were not on mine or my tables' side, not necessarily that I was playing poorly seeing as everyone was being plastered.

[RS]

Hopefully you're playing with proper basic strategy (i.e.: double down with 9v6)....your post wasn't really conclusive either way re: proper strategy or not.

The game isn't exactly a coin flip in that double down, splitting, and BJ 3:2 skew your winning hands to be less frequent, but winning hands pay more than 1:1 (on average). But it is still similar-enough to a coin flip. Try flipping a coin a bunch of times and see how quickly you'd be up or down $100 if you were making $15 bets. That's only 6-7 bets (or coin flips) in one direction vs the other.

Unfortunately, unless you're counting cards (or using another technique to gain an advantage), you'll be playing a losing game and can't expect to make a profit over time. Nothing wrong with gambling for fun with extra $$$, but don't delude yourself into thinking you'll be able to make money by simply using basic strategy and/or some money management system (i.e.: double your wager after every loss until a win then reset to min bet).

[bec88]

Play long enough you will see it all. If your basic strategy is good then just bet what your comfortable with and just have enough bankroll to keep you in the game for the desired about of time. As stated earlier if you are not counting or other AP move then you will be playing a losing game. To minimize losses find the lowest house edge games you can i.e. single or double deck with good rules. Ideally you want a crowded table which will slow down the wagers/hr. Your losses in a given time frame will be less and you will get more comps for your dollar that way as well.

[ZeeBabar]

Hopefully, the love of BJ does not take away from life, from friends, school or jobs. Its like drugs, it can get addictive and you can get into serious trouble. You can get on an unbelievable high after a winning session but a bad downer after a losing sessions. Be aware of yourself and dont get sucked in. There are excellent card counters who have gone through months of losing. You need a high bank roll and the costs are high. If you have a choice of where to spend $100, take a pretty girl out or hang out with friends.