Indices and their importance to your winning/variance

**BJPloppy** · 09-27-2016, 07:31 AM

Originally Posted by BoSox

" Originally Posted by TthreeFirst off I came to realize that you can't accurately separate betting and playing. Your optimal ramp will depend on how many indices you use so as you add indices you also bet more. The gain from more indices is not just the gain from index play but the total gain from index play and and the increased bets."

Sorry Norm I have to respectfully disagree with you. With all the new players on this site, it is statements like the above one that could easily be misinterpreted costing the new player big losses.

BoSox,

I fully agree with your desire to protect new players from misinformation or confusing information. I happen to think in this case you did not think it through. A new player would strictly follow whatever is written down about the count he/she uses. So let's say they use the Il18. Reading Tthree's post might make him/her curious about using more indices. So the new player learns some more indices. Following directions will lead the new player to realize that you do not raise your bets during the negative indices, you only vary play based upon the count. Now said new player goes back to Tthree and asks him for a further explanation of what he meant by his statement. Tthree obliges with an explanation and thinks to himself "This is why I always explain things more fully and get a bunch of crap for it." In the end; no harm - no foul to the beginning player.

Anyway, that is how I see it playing out if the new player did not ask for clarification immediately after reading the post.

**Phoebe** · 09-27-2016, 08:40 AM

I know that HiLo is for non-professionals, not even talking about REKO that I play. (it's a joke)
But increase in bets with optimal betting is 5% !

**Gronbog** · 09-27-2016, 09:05 AM

I believe that T3 is trying to say that additional indices change the EV for the true counts at which they are used. For +EV counts, this increases the optimal bets for those true counts. This will, in turn, increase the recommended practical bets at some of these counts.

**Phoebe** · 09-27-2016, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by Gronbog

I believe that T3 is trying to say that additional indices change the EV for the true counts at which they are used. For +EV counts, this increases the optimal bets for those true counts. This will, in turn, increase the recommended practical bets at some of these counts.

I basically use CVCX. From Sweet 16 to Full indices, it increase optimal bets from 21-315 to 22-320. Wow !

**Gronbog** · 09-27-2016, 09:34 AM

The assertion was that T3's statement was "preposterous", which I took to mean "false". While it may not be a goldmine financially, it certainly was not false. Norm's choice of "overstated" may be the best fit, when applying it to blackjack.

**Phoebe** · 09-27-2016, 09:48 AM

Gronbog, I thought it was a response to my posts. BoSox say what he want.

**Phoebe** · 09-27-2016, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

Perhaps you use a really weak playing count that won't gain enough from index play to make much of a difference. But with a strong count it does make a difference.

Yes. I said it was HiLo. And my sims was with HiLo

As a reminder.
http://pokermenteur.free.fr/images/IL18a.gif

**DSchles** · 09-27-2016, 10:31 AM

"I basically use CVCX. From Sweet 16 to Full indices, it increase optimal bets from 21-315 to 22-320. Wow !"

See how important all those extra indices are? :-)

Don

**Gronbog** · 09-27-2016, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

Each TC calculates your optimal bet by: EV / (Variance +2*covariance) for the stats the sim generates for each TC bin

For 1 spot, the optimal bet as a fraction of bankroll is EV/Variance

For n spots, the per-spot optimal bet as a fraction of bankroll is EV / (Variance + (n-1)*Covariance).

Notice how the multi-spot formula breaks down to the single spot formula when n is 1.

**BoSox** · 09-27-2016, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by Gronbog

I believe that T3 is trying to say that additional indices change the EV for the true counts at which they are used. For +EV counts, this increases the optimal bets for those true counts. This will, in turn, increase the recommended practical bets at some of these counts.

Thank you Gronbog, for a much more clarifying definition.

**Three** · 09-27-2016, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by moses

I suppose it is a matter of how one trains their brain because a 3 or 4 column count is easy for me. The 5 has its challenges.

It's easy because you are practiced at it. That is my point.

**Phoebe** · 09-27-2016, 02:18 PM

Is real RoR same in 2 sims ?

**Three** · 09-27-2016, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by Philippe B

Is real RoR same in 2 sims ?

They were both 5% for optimal bets for Hilo. When they were made to be practical bets I18 bet more aggressively as indicated by the 5.1% RoR versus no change in the 5% RoR for full indices. So I18/F4 benefited from rounding and full indices didn't.

The point is if you use a weak system when it comes to playing decisions you aren't going to get much of an increase in bets if any. Of course with a big spread it would make a difference. If you went to a 1-15 spread the bets would be about 10% higher for full indices (11% in the original sims). The percentage increase is smaller but the actual increase is more. Only the top and bottom of your ramp is affected. I18/F4 enjoys the same advantage in higher RoR for bet size as it did in the original sims. Percentage EV gain is reduced to 12.25 % rather than the original 15.5% EV gain with a 1-8 spread. The original monetary gain was about $29/100 rounds and the $33/100 rounds for the 1-15 spread.