Risk of Ruin

[Three]

There seems to be a lot of confusion about what Risk of Ruin is. In my opinion it is a great statistic that takes a snapshot of the chance that you will bust out if you always bet the ramp you are using from that point forward. By that definition your RoR changes every time your BR changes unless you change your bet. I would hope that the assumption the stat is based on is false (you will never change your bet ramp before busting out) for everyone unless they feel they can't drawdown due to table minimums and wanting to have a meaningful EV to make a comeback. So resizing is a given.

Anyway a very intelligent poster said RoR means you are going to keep your bets the same and if you constantly resize RoR is 0. Both of these statements are wrong. In my opinion this shows a lack of understanding that RoR is a statistical tool that measures your chance of busting out assuming you keep the same bet ramp not a defining of how you bet going forward or influenced by how you intend on resizing your bets in a downturn. Your RoR actually changes with every win or loss if you keep the same bet ramp. To talk about an AP playing with a set RoR actually says he intends on resizing his bets to maintain some sort of RoR range around his desired RoR. And to look at what my current RoR is doesn't mean it is that after losing or winning half my BR. Saying you have 0 RoR doesn't refer to constant resizing (that would mean your chance of busting out is 0 and your RoR is whatever it is based solely on your current bet ramp and BR and what game you are playing) but rather to having such a big BR compared to your bet ramp that you will never have to resize. I am just amazed at how often this statistical term gets misused and by what level of expertise it is misused by.