Just like many expected would happen against that defense.Originally Posted by Bodarc
Main reason why everybody jumped at that +7 opening line.
I disdain chalk most of the time but my selection
is the Panthers to cover the spread tonight.
I also like the over at 41.
What is the money-line odds here ?
Panthers -3 for me.
Carolina Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1.
Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.Denver Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 home games.
I don't like the pick Flash. Teams do poorly in that thin air. Denver has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Opponents generally lose a step or 2 sometime in the third quarter due to fatigue from lack of oxygen. I would want points betting against the Bronces in Denver. San Diego is the only team that seems to have any consistency in the thin air. They play Denver every year both home and away since they are in the same division. Carolina plays Denver every 3 years and only half those games are in Denver.
It is true that Denver lost Manning under center. They had built a very good team around him because his physical skills were waning. They felt they could win a SB with Mannings mental ability at QB if he could stay within his physical limitations. That means the team will mis his field general attributes but most QB's in the NFL can step in and do fine with the team they built around Manning. It is true that after winning a SB everyone wants to get payed and in the days of the salary cap that means you will have to make some tough decisions but not having to pay the SB quarterback certainly helps with that. I haven't looked at how bad the SB salary cap attrition was with Denver but assuming the team was kept together better than most SB winners I think they will be able to handle the Panthers at home to at least keep the game close. With that in mind I wouldn't be comfortable laying more than 2.5 points. I really wouldn't want to lay any points. The Broncos really screwed up not signing their QB of the future before playing Manning in the playoffs.
Last edited by Three; 09-08-2016 at 11:46 AM.
It went exactly as I predicted. Sometime in the third quarter Carolina lost a couple steps on Denver and the Broncos dominated. Being a step or two slower is huge. The game wouldn't have been close except for the turnovers. They took anywhere from 9 to 21 points off the board from the Broncos. You just don't lay points in Denver on the visitors. Even if the visitors dominate the first half they are severely handicapped the entire second half. Unlike all other home field advantages in Mile High Stadium the home team advantage is an actual physical advantage. It is a huge advantage after halftime. Given that, no lead is safe.
I really think that they are severely overweighting the loss of Brady. Arizona has one of the weakest home field advantages in the NFL. Even when they are dominating the division not many Cards fans in the stands and they are quiet fans. Brady is a great QB but any QB will look great with the guys that surround Brady. It isn't like Gronk is out. I think the Pats will win outright making the 7'ish points or the 200+ moneyline a great value. I have not well researched this so I recommend making your own assessment. I am just looking to find the value in early season from public misperceptions. First they over-rate Manning's loss since his worth was not his physical abilities anymore but what was between his ears as well as under-rating the Mile High home field advantage and offer the Broncos as a home dog in their season opener. The only thing that worried me was it was a revenge game. Then they offer the pats as a 7'ish point dog visiting a stadium with most no home field advantage. Brady is a great QB but he is not what makes the Patriots great. I expect there to be a lot of surprised people in Az this weekend.
Thanks Sharky. I wasn't aware of that. He is listed as questionable with a hammy. Even with Brady they aren't the same team without Gronk. Missing them both is not good at all. You know how Belichick likes to play with the injury report.
good for you....it even went to a 'pick em' at some stores....i wasn't so lucky as put my bet in early
my thoughts are:
1. totally underestimated (actually didn't even factor) the enthusiasm, excitement of how fired up the home crowd was due to the 9/11 tribute....took nearly 1.5 quarters for Bengals to settle down
2. Jets lose Snacks, but got the whole meal with McLendon...wow...he was a beast with 2.5 of 7 Dalton sacks....that's like 2.5x more than he got the whole time with the Steelers
3. damn Jets kicker missing xtra pt proved costly - buddy I was watching with couldn't understand why I was pissed when he missed kick - of course, would've loved to play OT
4. note to self on those refs name...wow, really let the receivers push off to get separation...(actually my peeve with most officials non-calls)...finally called Marshal on it after Bengals complained like 5xs....then Green did the same thing
I may be a bit biased but the Ravens looked really good. The D shut down the Bills to a the lowest score of the week so far, 7 points. Flacco hit 10 different players for receptions and was hitting players in stride on the deep ball with his cannon arm. Perriman, who hadn't played a down since being drafted in the 2015 draft, mussels a deep ball that was on the money in blanket coverage. They questioned the pick because he didn't have good hands but he muscled that ball in like he was Bolden. Pita is back along with Steve Smith Jr as favorite targets. The pickup of Mike Wallace showed more speed than just Permian. Flacco him him deep dead perfect in stride as shades of Joe Montana. Everyone has known Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the NFL but his deep ball has usually been one the receiver adjusts to but it looks like that may be in the past. The defense covered receivers from the line and weren't giving up easy short yards. The made Buffalo look really bad. The running game did what it had to despite the shortage of RB for the game. It looks like all the pieces are in place this year unlike in any other year. The question is can they stay healthy and how will they look against a better team? Buffalo is kind of middle of the road. The Ravens looked like a playoff team.
Green Bay looks to christen newly minted U.S. Bank stadium and take back what’s theirs – the NFC North crown – they are 5-1 in the last 6 road games vs MINNESOTA…coach McCarthy is 15-5-1 SU since taking the helm in 2006…recently acquired Viking QB Sam Bradford will start as TE coach Pat Shurmur, Bradford’s O Coordinator for both the Rams and Eagles, will facilitate his transition to Norv Turner’s offense….however, Packer’s QB Rodgers, 11-5 vs Vikes with nearly a 70% completion percentage, 35 TDs with just 5 picks and a 113 passer rating will be the difference again….take the PACKERS -1.5 for this week’s play
GOOD LUCK!
Sharky
Last week: 0-1 - had I waited til Sunday’s line change I would’ve had a tie or win…;(
Season: 0-1
Note: expect this week’s line to continue to drop once word of Bradford starting gets out
Considering so much of getting an edge early in the season is about a lag in perception about how a team has changed from year to year, does any of those that paid attention to how a team has changed have an opinion on the teams that are most overrated and most underrated at this time?
By the way like the pick Sharky. I think Rogers missed at least 1 game that GB lost. You can probably throw that 1 out of the data sampling.
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