Do you pay insurance in this situation?

[20 to 1 Spread]

So about last week, I had an interesting situation come up, the first of its kind. I'm sitting anchor and there are three players to my right. The TC was around 7 (estimating with remaining cards) and I fire my 2x max (edit 2 hands being my max bet). The cards run out and the TC becomes around 1. I was just going to hit my hands, but all of a sudden I hear an exclamation from the table, "HOLD ON"! I look up to the right and a guy suddenly says almost for verbatim, "you did not offer us insurance" while the dealer was in the motion of her hands checking the hole card. Quickly the others in unison all pay insurance.

I quickly ask, why does she have blackjack to the guys on my right. They say, she was going to flip it.

I tank a quick second and slowly push out my insurance bet. The dealer looks at me (or us) and with a fat big smile and grin? she says, are you sure?

Do we pay?

** In hindsight, I know what you're going to say.. It's reference to the .... ** I dont want to mention it as it will affect your bias, but given the information at hand mentioned, do you pay.

Also I decided to not pay it at the end (ignoring the outcome).

[ZenMaster_Flash]

" ...I fire my 2x max."

Profound "over-betting"

You have a lot to learn.

Besides ...

if 2 X your Max is bet then your max is not a max.

[20 to 1 Spread]

Profound "over-betting"

You have a lot to learn.

Besides ...

if 2 X your Max is bet then your max is not a max.

I can see your confusion. However I meant 2 x hands (max betting)
The general sentiment on this board lacks faith in the average AP for something as simple and silly as this.
Though again, it's my fault for such poor wording I guess

[Poolpro2013]

So you're saying the guy next to you saw her hand?

[20 to 1 Spread]

I perceived the guy in first base did. Then the others in the middle followed without questioning (seemingly in agreement that she was going to flip her cards over).

So the thing here is, if they saw her going to flip her cards over. Then its 100% BJ. And I should surely take insurance. However if they are wrong, I'm now placing a -EV bet at max money out.

Should we believe the casuals in what they may have saw? I mean how can you mistaken the dealer going to flip her cards over. That just never happens.

[Poolpro2013]

Seems like if first base thought she was gonna flip them up there must've been a reason. Also why would she ask only you "are you sure"? Because you had 2 stacks out? Oops just reread. You said "us"

[gutshot]

----Misread----

[Stealth]

At TC of 7, you should be taking insurance.

TC of 7 was prior to hands being dealt and then TC went to 1 at decision time. Correct play with the adjusted count was not to buy insurance. I would have a hard time with this decision because the TC 1 happened in the process of the count reducing in this round, meaning lots of high cards came which further supports the likelihood that dealer has a face under.

However, then we get into the judgement call of do you trust the first base guy saying she has blackjack. That is a gamble of a different nature. Knowing that prior to dealing the deck was +7 and that had have information from a guy with nothing to gain from me that she has blackjack and he trust it enough to take insurance then I am going to take insurance. If he was wrong then so be it, not the worst decision I ever made.

[Goodboy]

TC of 7 was prior to hands being dealt and then TC went to 1 at decision time. Correct play with the adjusted count was not to buy insurance. I would have a hard time with this decision because the TC 1 happened in the process of the count reducing in this round, meaning lots of high cards came which further supports the likelihood that dealer has a face under.

However, then we get into the judgement call of do you trust the first base guy saying she has blackjack. That is a gamble of a different nature. Knowing that prior to dealing the deck was +7 and that had have information from a guy with nothing to gain from me that she has blackjack and he trust it enough to take insurance then I am going to take insurance. If he was wrong then so be it, not the worst decision I ever made.

+1 Stealth. Exactly my thoughts on the subject.

[gutshot]

I missed that part! Then yes, don't take insurance unless you have additional information that your trust is accurate.

TC of 7 was prior to hands being dealt and then TC went to 1 at decision time.

[RCJH]

So I must be doing this wrong...

TC7 before the cards are dealt. You would absolutely buy insurance. Now it's dropped, but it's dropped because A LOT of high cards came out. I would buy because the betting count indicated it, and the fact that a lot of 10s and faces were dealt only confirms the count was accurate.

Now my playing decision would change, but I've always put the insurance decision with the betting count.


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[gutshot]

Playing decisions are based on the TC at the time you have to make the decision. Therefore, for taking insurance you would count all the cards in the current round, not the TC at the end of the last round.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"So I must be doing this wrong..."

Yes, and outshot is correct. However, that presumes that you are not taking
partial insurance as cover; or insuring BJ, 20, or 11 at a slightly sub-par T.C.
for Risk Aversion.