Dealer Busts

[Kat]

The long-term dealer bust average is 28.20%. Surely there must be a way of exploiting such a high figure?

[Smartpart]

Card counting

[21gunsalute]

The long-term dealer bust average is 28.20%. Surely there must be a way of exploiting such a high figure?

That means the dealer doesn't bust over 70% of the time! That makes it very difficult to exploit!

[zengrifter]

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[Kat]

Just bet bigger at the 28% dealer bust opps. Don't be too obvious.

Yeah, sounds like a simple plan. Except for this: what are dealer bust opps? Would you by any chance, Dr Z, be suggesting that some dealer busts may be engineered, or even - lord elpus - predicted? *hic* Of course to do such wild things, you would have to be seated at third base, and prepared to weather the onslaught of the disgruntled plops, should you do something to inflame their stone-cold, dealer-bust-card hearts.

Let's say a 6-deck shoe with 75% pen and four or five players will have 16 rounds per shoe, and with 28.20% average dealer busts, does that mean this shoe will have around 5 dealer busts? Nope. It might have one or none, or it could have six or seven. It could be a shoe that variance heavily favors the dealer hand, or praise the lord, it could be a shoe that heavily favors me. Now if only my crystal ball could tell me this shoe will have 7 dealer busts of the 16 rounds... Yippeeee!

[Kat]

Card counting

What has card counting got to do with dealer busts?

[Smartpart]

What has card counting got to do with dealer busts?

It's factored into indices. When there is a bigger chance for dealer bust I'll double more often. E.g. A,8 vs 4,5,6 at counts of 3,1,1 or I double 9 vs 2 at +1. On the other hand, I hit 14 v 4 at minus counts when there is a higher than normal chance for a pat hand. You can't exploit the solely the bust opportunity directly because you have to bet before you know if there is one or not.

[Smartpart]

Roger. Excuse my naivety.

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[Kat]

Okay for the hidden meaning challenged. Zg was talking about capping or pinching your bets when he said don't get caught. I assume Kat has been having fun with you most of the time if not all of the time and was not serious at least at the end.

Well, you assumed wrong. I have always been fascinated with Dealer Busts. (Note capital letters.) I've long studied Dealer Busts. I have lusted after Dealer Busts; dreamed about Dealer Busts; I think I've been in love with Dealer Busts for decades. I worship Dealer Busts as my saviour. (Note not capital letter and a 'u' there.)
The all-important figure of 28.20% is imprinted on my soul, just as it was in a previous life. So what does all this mean? It means this: I am obliged to sit at third base so that when "the time is right" I can depart from BS and engineer a beautiful Dealer Bust at my heart's content and to hell with all those whining plops.

Here are the figures for the dealer upcard bust...

2 35.4%
3 37.4%
4 39.5%
5 41.6%
6 42.3%

7 26.2%
8 24.5%
9 22.8%
10 21.2%
A 11.5%

Now ain't that math beautiful?

[Kat]

Well if you believe and keep the faith maybe you will be granted grace and rise on the occasion. You might find it hard but you never know when the time will cum. Keep the faith.

I thought you might have ventured forth with something meaningful to say about those dealer upcard bust figures I went to so much trouble to post. Instead, you waffle on about faith or sumthin.
Note how the figures go up by 2%, apart from 5 & 6, where there isn't much of difference for expected bust. Similarly for 7-9, with not much difference between 9 & 10. As for an A bust at only 11.5%, only a serious plop would expect that right here, right now. However, the bust rate for 7 throo 10 is surprisingly high, don't you think?

[Kat]

That means the dealer doesn't bust over 70% of the time! That makes it very difficult to exploit!

Maybe the dealer doesn't bust more than 70% of the time, but on another view, the dealer does bust getting close to one third of the time, (28.20%). Now this, I believe, can be exploited.

[zengrifter]

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