Card counting as a career, really? Did you read this post..

**ZeeBabar** · 08-27-2016, 05:29 PM

https://apheat.net/2014/02/27/the-pe...questions-faq/

**Freightman** · 08-27-2016, 06:07 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

https://apheat.net/2014/02/27/the-pe...questions-faq/

I did. What's your point? Consider your answer before you respond.

**Freightman** · 08-27-2016, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by moses

I don't get it Freighter. Why would a player want all this crap in their head? You train, you play your ass off, don't get greedy.

I'm in agreement that far fewer are making a living at blackjack than claim. The truth usually eventually comes out if you read between the lines. But with some effort it can be a lucrative hobby. More so than golf. No offence MJ.

Zee needs to respond on 2 fronts.
1. The article as it's written, and as it pertains to his own style of play which he has elucidated on multiple occasions.
2. The manner in which the article is written - it's stats as stated vs. the practicalities of play of both your standard and professional card counter.

I didn't check the numbers, but there appears to be at least 1 glaring error, which I might get around to checking. You don't need to be greedy - just go do your job well. No question that, with discipline, it's lucrative.

**RCJH** · 08-27-2016, 09:41 PM

I read the article, and loved it. I wish all casino operators read it.

I don't understand the math, however. Without RSA or surrender, the HE is about .43 correct? (On the 6D) How does a player have an advantage at TC 1, even a microscopic advantage? If you add RSA and Surrender, the HE becomes .26, so I suppose you'd have a VERY small advantage, even using High Low.

Also, the article seems to assume a flat bet at any advantage is the most optimal way to play, vs a bet ramp. I don't understand; sims show me something different. Am I missing something?

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**Freightman** · 08-27-2016, 09:48 PM

RCJH
No, you're not missing it. There is a difference between EV maximizing and optimal play.ill check HE, looks like you're off.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 08-28-2016, 06:25 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

There is a difference between EV maximizing and optimal play

"EV Maximizing" (I feel) is best viewed as the converse of "Risk Reduction."

It increases your R.O.R. relative to your expectation. I hate the variance of

our highly volatile game. Taming that torture is a special interest of Tthree.

**21forme** · 08-28-2016, 06:51 AM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

"EV Maximizing" (I feel) is best viewed as the converse of "Risk Reduction."

Not exactly. You can maximize EV by betting your max bet at any positive count. OTOH, underbetting your advantage increases volatility.

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

I hate the variance of our highly volatile game. Taming that torture is a special interest of Tthree.

Do you really need to resurrect the fantasy talk that has been thoroughly debunked recently?

**Phoebe** · 08-28-2016, 07:20 AM

How can any under-betting increase volatility ?

**Stealth** · 08-28-2016, 07:52 AM

I believe his article was intended to point out how difficult it is for a card counter to "hurt" the casinos in an effort to get them to abandon some of the profit killing counter measures they have implemented. One of the most insidious is penetration which reduces their "decisions per hour". It is STUPID to slow down a process where you have a mathematical advantage for fear of an unknown.

If some of those bean counters would do the study on the cost of reduced penetration versus the exposure to card counters it would result in better games for all of us to play. This "head in the sand" perspective is costing the casino industry 100's of millions of dollars. When this study includes all the US casinos the amounts are staggering.

Bill Zender, another gaming consultant and past gaming manager, implemented this deep pen concept in a Vegas casino when he was their manager and recorded historical positive results. The conclusion is that the increase in revenue from non-AP play far offsets the AP play cost. The table games management fear of a day with bad "hold" is the primary motivator of the oppressive attitude.

So, I don't think the article, or the somewhat convoluted examples, had anything to do with encouraging or discouraging AP players but more a message to casino management.

**Freightman** · 08-28-2016, 08:04 AM

Originally Posted by Philippe B

How can any under-betting increase volatility ?

He is saying that by not betting to your full advantage, you are not recovering the cost of your waiting minimum bets.

**Freightman** · 08-28-2016, 08:08 AM

Originally Posted by Stealth

I believe his article was intended to point out how difficult it is for a card counter to "hurt" the casinos in an effort to get them to abandon some of the profit killing counter measures they have implemented. One of the most insidious is penetration which reduces their "decisions per hour". It is STUPID to slow down a process where you have a mathematical advantage for fear of an unknown.

If some of those bean counters would do the study on the cost of reduced penetration versus the exposure to card counters it would result in better games for all of us to play. This "head in the sand" perspective is costing the casino industry 100's of millions of dollars. When this study includes all the US casinos the amounts are staggering.

Bill Zender, another gaming consultant and past gaming manager, implemented this deep pen concept in a Vegas casino when he was their manager and recorded historical positive results. The conclusion is that the increase in revenue from non-AP play far offsets the AP play cost. The table games management fear of a day with bad "hold" is the primary motivator of the oppressive attitude.

So, I don't think the article, or the somewhat convoluted examples, had anything to do with encouraging or discouraging AP players but more a message to casino management.

Not withstanding the merits of the article, wheather good or bad, the thread is about Zees perceptions of card counting as an income priducing opportunity.

**mofungoo** · 08-28-2016, 08:12 AM

It's all bout the bean counters. When they see any table showing lower than expected holds, for even a day, the casino managers start demanding answers from their subordinates. The reaction is to tighten up the games, which makes the matter worse. Ploppy level casino managers (manglers?) who don't understand basic statistical concepts as related to gambling are running the show and ruining their business.

**ZeeBabar** · 08-28-2016, 08:33 AM

So, I don't think the article, or the somewhat convoluted examples, had anything to do with encouraging or discouraging AP players but more a message to casino management.[/QUOTE]

But it does tell the 22 year old full time counter wannabe's with a bankroll of $1000 how difficult or impossible the career they are thinking of is. How many newbie counters are willing to put $100 at TC2 or higher when they are now spreading $5 to $75?