Interesting story from Australia…

**davethebuilder** · 08-10-2016, 06:13 AM

Some time ago after a long working week I found myself sitting in a quiet corner on the main floor of my local casino playing 6 deck NHC(BB+1), 3:2, S17, CSM Blackjack. There is nothing remarkable about this game as it has a house edge of around 0.54 but I was up around $400, the dealer was friendly and the waitress attentive so I was happy.

Along comes a well dressed middle aged woman who I had never seen before and requests a private table. Since she had a sizable bankroll the casino readily agreed and an area was roped off for her and a fresh dealer appeared. The table limits were $50 - $2,000 per box and as far as I could tell she was sitting down to play the same game as me. My curiosity was aroused because she did not want to go upstairs to a shoe game, she was quite happy with the CSM. So play starts as normal, betting the table minimum and from what I could see playing Basic Strategy. Then after a while she spreads to all seven boxes but still at low limits. This continues for a while then all of a sudden she is betting table max. on all seven boxes. That’s $14,000 per round! This gets the attention of the supervisor and shortly afterwards a few suits appear. On she goes, varying her bet sizes and soon after she is up $50,000! Now the suits are clearly concerned. I’m sure the EITS is working overtime and the table is getting a lot of attention. Then just as quickly she thanks the dealer and decides to leave, coloured up, cashed in her chips and the game is over. It all happened in around an hour and I have never seen this woman again.

So did she just get lucky or was there more to it? Your thoughts…

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 08-10-2016, 07:45 AM

My guess is that she (was) a royal luck-sack.

My belief is that at year's end she will lose massively.

Would you have posted this if she had lost $50,000 ?

**fjrider** · 08-10-2016, 10:15 AM

At $14,000 a bet she only needed to go up 3 1/2 bets(or less). I have no opinion on whether or not there was anything else to it.
But I remember one night, I was done playing and up, and just having fun in one of the bars, drinking Modelo drafts, talking to people. I would wander around just watching people and then I'd spot an empty table, even though it was a weekend and a pretty full casino. I'd stop, tell the dealer outright I was drinking so as soon as I went up one bet I was leaving. If it took one hand, I left, I think the most I played at a table was maybe 15 hands. Just screwing around, but I was still playing my game, but not back counting. Sit in the bar a while, then take a walk.
Did it 4 or 5 times and left.

Anywhose, $10 player would have been up $35 in an hour and NEVER have left. She got up just 3 1/2 bets up(or less) and walked with 50K. She had some knowledge apparently, but how much, no one will ever know.
Lots of good reasons not to let the butt get glued to a chair though.

Wonder if she won on the fist 4 $14,000 bets if she would have gotten up?

**Three** · 08-10-2016, 11:31 AM

CSM's only allow a minimal number of AP opportunities. If she was exploiting one of these, that will remain unmentioned, she was using great cover. My guess is she was just lucky. Squares can get really lucky even when they are playing really stupid.

**stopgambling** · 08-10-2016, 11:47 AM

My guess is if someone know something ,they would not be so blatant and just slowly play the game . Most of us think it is not possible to gain a decent edge from CSM making it unbeatable , i doubt this would be an exception.

**davethebuilder** · 08-10-2016, 02:58 PM

Most of the casino staff think that she was just lucky. With that bankroll she could have had a private room with a shoe game but the odd part is that she wanted a CSM and also wanted to lock up the table.

I probably would not have posted this if she had lost. I have seen many people lose large amounts of money at the tables and the ones that lose the most are those that think they are Advantage Players. They have plenty to say at the start of the game but as play progresses it becomes obvious the required skill is not there so they lose and often cannot understand why.

**stopgambling** · 08-10-2016, 04:00 PM

Card counting is easy with Hi lo /ko and is also easy to tell .All you need is a big bank and follow the system and keep playing . The hard part is being able to keep playing or play for a long time and still being assessed as a gambler! On the other hand working in a casino and be successful is even easier , even an idiot can do it. I regret not choosing the latter.

**fjrider** · 08-10-2016, 08:06 PM

A question for the OP. Did they load the CSM with fresh decks before she started playing?

**davethebuilder** · 08-10-2016, 08:25 PM

No, as far as I could see they did not.

One point that crossed by mind is Depth Charging but this seems to be most effective on single deck games which don't exist here.