Memorizing full index or between -6 and +6

[BJGenius007]

BJGenius007,

I play sparingly in my local native tribal casinos these days (really not worth it in light of rules and gaming conditions). Looking forward to an upcoming business trip out of state, and casinos near my conference. But, when I do play locally for practice sake, I essentially use a play all strategy. But, when it gets into serious negative territory, I do get up, use bathroom, take a walk to food court area, cash in some chips, check out games in other pits, etc.

Why would you stay at a game with a -12 TC? Absolutely no benefit, not even if you suspect you are getting heat. Only result will be a steady loss of $$$, and your accrual of seriously negative EV.

That's why I was asking why you would still be hanging in there at a -12 TC. Who cares what the negative index number for 16 vs. 6 is at -12 TC?

As Gramazeka correctly pointed out, you only have a minimum bet out at that point anyway. But, if you took a break, you never would have placed a minimum bet out there at a -12 TC, and so, the value of hitting a 16 vs. the Dealer's 6, would be at best, a hypothetical, and not a real world experience.

Of course you want to avoid negative count as often as possible, I was just saying if you have to play them, rarely, what you should do to optimize your "negative" results. Also if this is your lodql casino you visit a lot, eventually the regular ploppies who play by Basic Strategy will avoid your table. Not only you can reduce the number of players in your table, but the few ploppies playing at your table will be as crazy as you are. You will have the best cover and won't worry that your index play will upset your tablemates.

[Freightman]

Hitting a 16 vs 6? Are you crazy? I thought some were crazy for hitting 12vs4....but that takes the cake right there.

I was playing heads up min 25 with a -30 true. The cost can be reduced by certain side bets. It was interesting.

[Three]

I have been following just the I-18 but sometimes, reading this forum one can be persuaded to go for more indexes. It's been quite informative. Since I always have minimums atTC1 and below, I will not bother with negative indexes beyond I-18. I think that maybe I should concentrate on deck estimation.

For an ace reckoned count there is 100% correlation between bets and plays so if the index is negative you are likely to have a min bet out unless the count changed drastically between when you made your bet and when you have to make your playing decision. Few decks remaining to be played and lots of people at the table contribute to a large change in the count between when you make your bet and when you make your playing decision.

With ace neutral counts your bets and plays are not as highly correlated. You may be betting a ramped bet in a negative playing count in addition to the aforementioned chances the count will change between your betting and playing decisions. This breaks or at least loosens the relationship between the playing count and your bet size.

Know your count and what is worth knowing given the heat generated and the size of the bet. There is a cost for sacrificing indices and it varies by index, how much the index is exceeded combined with the rate of gain after the index is exceeded and your bet size. It can often deflect heat if you have a big bet out and use an index play that is associated with a negative count.

Everything is a risk/reward analysis and can be such as you play at the table as opposed to a hard and fast set of rules.

As Gramazeka correctly pointed out, you only have a minimum bet out at that point anyway. But, if you took a break, you never would have placed a minimum bet out there at a -12 TC, and so, the value of hitting a 16 vs. the Dealer's 6, would be at best, a hypothetical, and not a real world experience.

You should never feel you have to play (taking a break is fine) but some opportunities make your spot at the table a premium. In these cases the advantage may be dealer dependent so your playing window with the increased advantage is limited. The point is you would do better to concentrate on quality of playing time rather than quantity. Like every rule there are reasons for exceptions. My experience is those great opportunities that are dealer dependent often bite you in the ass despite the huge increase in theoretical.

[stopgambling]

You should never feel you have to play (taking a break is fine) but some opportunities make your spot at the table a premium. In these cases the advantage may be dealer dependent so your playing window with the increased advantage is limited.

the reason people hang around at -tc10.

[Gramazeka]

Good master hang around at -10TC only for remember minus slug.

[Zach Black]

A weak shuffle and control of the cut card could make it worth playing through a very negative shoe.

[Gramazeka]

Really???

[Freightman]

A weak shuffle and control of the cut card could make it worth playing through a very negative shoe.

I recall a half shoe some years back with -23 RC at the cut card. Hand shuffled trackable with me and the cut card. Worked quite well.

[Stealth]

Yes, hit 16 v 6 when TC is -12 or lower.

If I am playing at TC-12 then please will someone hit me!

[ZeeBabar]

If I am playing at TC-12 then please will someone hit me!

Maybe the dealer will tell the counter that it's time to go for a bathroom break, lol!

[Bigdaddy]

If I am playing at TC-12 then please will someone hit me!

I can see this happening in a DD game. The count can shoot down so quickly (last couple rounds) that you may not be able to wong out gracefully. Or perhaps you've just wonged out of the previous two negative decks (bathroom, then phone call) and it would look a little ridiculous to go for three in a row. Or perhaps it's the last round, so no reason to walk away from one round and then miss the entire next shuffle (in a NMSE game).

So you play it. And yes, it's helpful to know the index. Why not know it? By the way, -12 doesn't sound right for 16 v. 6. I would think lower....

[Freightman]

If I am playing at TC-12 then please will someone hit me!

There may be a circumstance to cater to. Been there.

[Norm]

While playing at -12 should obviously be avoided if possible; it's not quite as bad as it sounds. Keep in mind that the EV at -12 is -5% of your min bet and at +12 is +8% of your max bet. So, with a spread of $25 to $300, your EV at -12 is -$1.25 and at +12 is +$24. That's with full indices, which actually help minus counts more than plus counts. With the Illustrious 18, your EV at -12 is -$2 and at +12 is +$21.