If Given a Choice, Which Promotion Would You Choose to Play

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[Nyne]

Even IF both allowed $25 bets and both were restricted to 60 hours #1 still trumps in CE, yes?

I don't think the time limit is even much of a factor. Option 1 has higher CE for small bankrolls, option 2 has higher CE for large bankrolls. I calculate that the cutoff for $25 bets is around $80000/k, for whatever Kelly fraction k you use. This seems to match txlouder's calculation of a $16500 cutoff for a $5 bet, and is higher than I expected. The variance of the jackpot is a killer. After playing 62666 hands, there's still a 36.8% chance of not hitting the jackpot. After 100,000 hands, it's still 20.3% likely you haven't hit it. In that same 100,000 hands, you have a 27% chance of busting a $20,000 bankroll, so I would expect more than a 5% RoR with $20,000. How much more, I can't say.

I will say I'm not entirely comfortable using the standard formula of CE = E - V/2kB for games like this with very rare large results, so I'm not entirely confident that I've calculated the correct cutoff. Personally, I'd try to do a more direct calculation of the expected utility of each game before deciding which to play. But in this case, if the 777s jackpot is a fixed amount, it is an inferior game to the 2:1 BJ game if the 2:1 BJ game allows even slightly larger bets.

[Midwest Player]

I too would choose a 2:1 blackjack promotion over the 777 promotion. Everyone's analysis provided valuable insight.

Let me say there is no 2:1 blackjack promotion going on that I'm aware of. However, the second promotion is a real promotion thats going on now in the midwest. It will end on Dec 31, 2012 at midnight. I did not play it as its a far trip for me with a slim chance of winning. However, the promotion is a positive expected value promotion.

"Blackjack players, you could win $21,000 at xxxxx Casino xxxxxxx. If you're dealt three suited 7's, you'll take home our Blackjack Blitz prize of $21,000. Promotion offered noon to midnight every Monday in December.
We had two big $21,000 Blackjack Blitz winners on December 17, Robert of Illinois and James of Wisconsin. You could be next!"

It is interesting to note that there have been only two winners in the 48 hours that the promotion has been going on. I wonder how many of their tables they had open during this promotion. If they had 6 tables open and say 6 players at a table at 100 hands an hour for 48 hours that would be 172,800 hands played and only two winners. This is just a guess on my part on number of tables. I don't really know.

[RS]

The 6% would be better if you are a "promo chaser", meaning you seek out such promos and burn the **** out of the games.

If you're talking about something at a local casino that you won't see again for quite a while, then go with the 2% game.