Running some DD sims in CVData and I'm getting a slightly higher SCORE when I use half-deck estimation vs. quarter-deck estimation for purposes of the true-count calculation (using TKO). How could that be? Isn't quarter-deck estimation more precise?
Running some DD sims in CVData and I'm getting a slightly higher SCORE when I use half-deck estimation vs. quarter-deck estimation for purposes of the true-count calculation (using TKO). How could that be? Isn't quarter-deck estimation more precise?
Generally speaking, yes. But, there exist a huge number of quirks in blackjack due to non-linearity and borderline conditions since humans don't play with exact TCs. Just as one example, switching between half- and quarter-deck estimation might happen to cause the indices to perform in a more or less risk averse manner, affecting SCORE.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
You got it - thanks! I just realized that my indices were generated using half-deck estimation and I was using those same indices in both half-deck and quarter-deck sims. So it makes sense that the quarter-deck sims were not coming out as good, because I was using incompatible indices. Time to create and learn some new indices...
Actually, TKO lends itself very nicely to quarter deck estimation in a DD game. That's because the RC has to increase by 1 for each quarter deck played in order to stay at a TC of zero.
So for instance, if the running count has increased by 2 after a quarter deck, then I know I'm one point over and I use my quarter-deck multiplier to determine the TC: (2-1) x .57 (I round to .6 for simplicity), so the TC is +.6. I have a multiplier for each quarter deck played: .6, .7, .8, 1, 1.3, 2.
So another example - If the running count has increased by 10 after 1.25 decks have been played (5 quarter decks), the TC is (10 - 5) x 1.3 = 6.5.
Pretty easy, No?
Like anything, once you get used to it. The decimal multiplication seems intimidating but like I said once you get used to the few multipliers you have they should get pretty easy. I think, to me, .57 would be easier as 4/7ths or multiply the index by 7/4 and subtract 1 and compare to the RC as a RC index barrier. The others look easy enough to use as multipliers.
Just like Freightman and T3 point out, math has a different approach for everyone tackling problems like this. For example I handle TKO by performing the math described by Bigdaddy before even playing, constructing a table and memorizing it. So I know the RC and the deck we are playing and therefore I know the TC.
Easier for me, already used to it after many years, but not everyone's cup of coffee I am sure.
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