Question (by a newbee)

**Clint** · 07-11-2016, 07:03 PM

I'm new to this site, just registered. I was wondering if someone can help my with a question.

(Counting aside) how far do you take the Basic Strategy. If, for example, I'm dealt a hard 13 and the dealer is showing a 10, basic strategy says, HIT. So, I HIT. Let's say I'm dealt an A. Now I have 14. Basic Strategy says, with a 14, & the Dealer has a 10 showing, HIT. So, I hit again. Let's say I'm dealt another ACE. Now I have 15. Basic Strategy says, with a 15, the Dealer has a 10 showing, HIT. My question is, do I HIT again? At some point I start having this idea that my luck with low cards will likely run out - and the chance that I'll be dealt a 10 and then BUST is now high. Do I HIT anyway (as Basic Strategy says I should do) or do I STICK?

Thank you in advance.

**Stealth** · 07-11-2016, 07:14 PM

Basic strategy is the mathematically correct play in every situation. It has been validated by BILLIONS of hands of computer simulation.

TRUST IT!

It does not mean you will win every time, it means you made the correct play in the long term.

**Bodarc** · 07-11-2016, 07:23 PM

Originally Posted by Clint

At some point I start having this idea that my luck with low cards will likely run out

Yes Clint, you would hit again. There are still many low cards and you can't second guess the deck.

I entered your hand in BJCD Analyzer and EV to stand is -.5725 and to hit is -.5372 6D H17 Das so your best play is still to hit.

**JackDeuceNine** · 07-11-2016, 07:23 PM

There are two types of basic strategy charts: total dependent and composition dependent. Total dependent is the general basic strategy chart that you are referring to where all that matters is the total of your hand, and composition dependent basic strategy charts take into account the composition of your specific hand. For example, total dependent strategy says to hit hard 16 v 10, whereas composition dependent says to hit a 2-card 16 v 10 but stand on a 3-card 16 v 10. Although composition dependent strategy slightly reduces the house edge, neither basic strategy charts will give you a positive expectation, so I hope that you will learn how to count so that you can play with an edge. With that being said, if you are counting then you will just use the regular basic strategy chart and you will deviate from basic strategy based on the count. For example, basic strategy says to hit a 16 v 10, but you will stand whenever the count is 0 or greater.

**Ryemo** · 07-11-2016, 07:27 PM

Exactly what Stealth said. Trust him. He knows his stuff! You should follow basic strategy 100%. The only time you'll deviate from that strategy is when you're counting.

**Bodarc** · 07-11-2016, 07:33 PM

Just a side note, the difference between a 2 card 16 and a 3 card 16 v 10 is .004
. Not enough to make a difference in a lifetime.

**Freightman** · 07-11-2016, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by Bodarc

Just a side note, the difference between a 2 card 16 and a 3 card 16 v 10 is .004
. Not enough to make a difference in a lifetime.

Tweak with the count and it improves, though I cannot say to what (right now)

**Frank Galvin** · 07-12-2016, 12:25 AM

Originally Posted by Bodarc

Yes Clint, you would hit again. There are still many low cards and you can't second guess the deck.

I entered your hand in BJCD Analyzer and EV to stand is -.5725 and to hit is -.5372 6D H17 Das so your best play is still to hit.

BJCD?
Blackjack Composition Dependent? Or Blackjack Combinatorial D(something)?

Please provide more details kind sir.

**Bodarc** · 07-12-2016, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by Frank Galvin

Please provide more details

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...e-in-Blackjack
See the post by ICountNTrack for the link to download his analyzer.

here:
https://code.google.com/archive/p/bl...yzer/downloads

**Frank Galvin** · 07-12-2016, 07:55 AM

Thanks.

**Bodarc** · 07-12-2016, 09:44 AM

You're welcome

**Clint** · 07-12-2016, 11:51 AM

Wow. Thank you for all the replies. (While I'm familiar with counting, I've finally decided to take BJ seriously and so, decided to try and get basic strategy nailed down before moving onto counting). Jack's point is well taken, the dif between total dependent and composition dependent but bringing counting into it will trump all that, as you point out. That analyzer is something I want to see. Thanks again for the informative replies.