Which Count To Use

[Three]

You also say it's one big session, but then you act as if winning 2k in a short amount of time and getting out means anything. It's all about EV, if you win in a short span it's irrelevant, its the same thing as if you kept playing or came back another day and kept playing, its all about hours played.

there is a difference. One way of playing the big session results in longevity. The other way results in many quick BO's.

I dont do it always, as it's a pain to keep driving all over the place and destroying my car.

I have well over 200K miles on my vehicle. I buy a solid dependable vehicle. Take care of it. And drive it until it drops or becomes too expensive to maintain. Maintenance cost have not started to rise yet. If you put your car ahead of your AP career you will just have a car and no AP career. If you are careful to maintain both you will have both for a long long time. Don't be so foolish as to think burning your face around here won't beat you to Vegas. Many of our local casinos are owned by the same group that also has Vegas properties.

Incidentally when I started using longevity to break that big session up, my win rate increased a lot. lengthening the session to where it threatens longevity usually resulted in giving money back while playing more hours. I try to maximize quality hours not quantity. Standing around backcounting for any length of time will get identified. Back counters are not tolerated well at all. Casinos are very quick to act on back counters at any bet size. It is a very effective technique but why would a casino tolerate you if you only make advantage bets? The only deception in the cat and mouse game is making them believe you make more and larger disadvantage bets than you actually do. This is done cheapest by knowing when their perception of advantage is off the mark and betting more appropriately or having a system where your plays and bets correlate very loosely. Ace reckoned counts have 100% correlation between bets and plays. It is so easy to spot and predict. Ace neutral counts with ace side count and/or other side counts break that correlation and allows them to not act without worrying about catching shit from their supervisors. How is a back counter that only makes plus EV bets going to do that? of course he can't. How is someone with an ace reckoned count going to do that? Only by giving up EV on their plays by plying wrong on low cost but frequent plays. The ace neutral counter has increased earnings from plays and those plays are cover without costing EV. There is a bit more to the value of things than the difference in EV or SCORE. There is so much more to effectively playing BJ than just sim results.

A counter must have a plan for longevity concerns and playing under the radar. A true professional sticks to his plan and doesn't deviate because of personal reasons. Some use very aggressive plan where BO's are a given. There is nothing wrong with that. It comes with its own set of costs and benefits for the AP to live comfortably with. One is traveling more to games that aren't burned out. Another is playing more tolerant stores that may offer poor games and deal with the increased wild swings of the huge bets required to make such games worth it. I think more commonly players are longevity players. If you want to reside in this camp you can't paint outside the lines for personal reasons.

[LoneWoLF]

there is a difference. One way of playing the big session results in longevity. The other way results in many quick BO's.


I have well over 200K miles on my vehicle. I buy a solid dependable vehicle. Take care of it. And drive it until it drops or becomes too expensive to maintain. Maintenance cost have not started to rise yet. If you put your car ahead of your AP career you will just have a car and no AP career. If you are careful to maintain both you will have both for a long long time. Don't be so foolish as to think burning your face around here won't beat you to Vegas. Many of our local casinos are owned by the same group that also has Vegas properties.

Incidentally when I started using longevity to break that big session up, my win rate increased a lot. lengthening the session to where it threatens longevity usually resulted in giving money back while playing more hours. I try to maximize quality hours not quantity. Standing around backcounting for any length of time will get identified. Back counters are not tolerated well at all. Casinos are very quick to act on back counters at any bet size. It is a very effective technique but why would a casino tolerate you if you only make advantage bets? The only deception in the cat and mouse game is making them believe you make more and larger disadvantage bets than you actually do. This is done cheapest by knowing when their perception of advantage is off the mark and betting more appropriately or having a system where your plays and bets correlate very loosely. Ace reckoned counts have 100% correlation between bets and plays. It is so easy to spot and predict. Ace neutral counts with ace side count and/or other side counts break that correlation and allows them to not act without worrying about catching shit from their supervisors. How is a back counter that only makes plus EV bets going to do that? of course he can't. How is someone with an ace reckoned count going to do that? Only by giving up EV on their plays by plying wrong on low cost but frequent plays. The ace neutral counter has increased earnings from plays and those plays are cover without costing EV. There is a bit more to the value of things than the difference in EV or SCORE. There is so much more to effectively playing BJ than just sim results.

A counter must have a plan for longevity concerns and playing under the radar. A true professional sticks to his plan and doesn't deviate because of personal reasons. Some use very aggressive plan where BO's are a given. There is nothing wrong with that. It comes with its own set of costs and benefits for the AP to live comfortably with. One is traveling more to games that aren't burned out. Another is playing more tolerant stores that may offer poor games and deal with the increased wild swings of the huge bets required to make such games worth it. I think more commonly players are longevity players. If you want to reside in this camp you can't paint outside the lines for personal reasons.

Yes I know big sessions result in backoffs. I love how you only quotes the parts in my paragraph to make your argument and to act smart. Why didn't you quote the part where I said that I understand it's important to spreading my play around and not just hand around one store for hours on end? My point that I was originally making was that you seemed to give the impression that big short term wins have any value whatsoever. And I was simply stating it doesnt matter if you leave with 2k after 20 minutes or 200 after 20 minutes, it's all one big session. When you come back it's going to be the same chance of negative variance then if you kept playing after being up 2k.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

" ... to act smart."

No acting required.
He is ... s m a r t.

[Gronbog]

s m r t

[Tarzan]

Tarzan chose to bypass Sims and attack the game with his mind. You certainly have to respect him for that. It's even more amazing he is willing to share and teach.

I didn't choose to bypass anything and wanted a simulation years ago, Moses. I've gone to great lengths to verify every scrap of the math behind it from multiple resources. I am not a computer programmer though. Formulating, developing, and employing the method is a lot easier than trying to teach it. I never had it in mind to teach it to anyone. As far as the title of the thread "Which count to use", it's probably last on the list for the novice, and simply not applicable to many others. There is remarkable precision, I can make detailed assessments of betting count and playing decisions that would be impossible using other methods. I am as close to perfect play as it gets. I can calculate nearly as accurately as a computer in real time, due to the amount of information at my disposal and specialized methods of calculation unique to the system. The catch to this is the amount of study and training required to master it. DonS has looked at some of the mechanics of the system and seen specifics on the precision of calculations but questions the amount of gain being worth the difficulty level of mastering the system, something that can only be answered with a simulation and SCORE values. I think at this point he at least rates it as being a couple of notches higher than the TARGET system after seeing a little of it.

[Three]

Sitting at 3rd base with 5 other people means I'm basing my bet on the 6th and 13th card to come out of a shoe. Assuming no one plays two hands. I'm just not smart enough to make a judgement that play will end in my favor.

Actually Moses third base is the best spot to olay from even at a crowded table. This is because everyone bets with the same info and then a set amount of cards are dealt before 1st base makes a decision. Nobody gets to bet with more information than anyone else. If the cards were dealt face down so you couldn't see anyone else's hand would that change anything? Of course it wouldn't. Just like dealing in the opposite direction wouldn't change anything. Everyone gets cards dealt from a set number of cards that will be dealt before first base acts on his hand. You know the TC when you make your bet. Since nobody gets to change their bet you can view all those cards as being turned over simultaneously. What difference would dealing them face down make and seeing your cards first? Every newbie asks this question and the answer that the position in the deal has nothing to do with what you get has been proven many times.

The reason third base is best is because third base does get to play his hand with more information. First base may make a close double down decision and then have nothing but face cards hit the table and by the time the dealer plays his hand the count changed so much that first base wouldn't have doubled with that info. Third base has the dealer play his hand immediately after third base makes a decision. There is no deciding to double a soft 15v5 just above the index and have the dealer play his hand with a TC much below the index.

You attribute your misinformation to me but I have explained that what you believe is wrong every time a newbie asks the question. I am not sure how you got things twisted around. Only if you could bet after you see your cards would it make a difference. Wouldn't that be nice? As often as the TC goes down it also goes up. The TC theorem tells us the TC will tend to stay the same. That should be all you need to know.

[marinedogg11]

I don't think a threshold of 3 cents over 200 million hands is worth holding in memory. It may very well result in a net loss on YOUR lifetime of playing. Focus on advantages that will add to your bottom line in your lifetime. It's still blackjack simple folk can excel. You don't have to be a rocket scientist. So stop making it into rocket science.

Exactly! too many people want to make themselves look smart and get off the real point. and make something far more difficult than it is. SMH