You Won't Win

**Villiam** · 06-26-2016, 04:32 PM

Tides have turned here on the forum as of late with people's emotions and realities to bear and I figured since the talk is low, small, short and depressingly conspiratorial maybe we could extend into some armchair philosophizing without forgetting ole Zenmaster's tip about insecurity and dwelling on it.

The title is You Won't Win. Some people feel that way on every level. Many newbies are quoted the article (here: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/wontwin.html) and told to piss off. Many pros have built up an extensive and replenishable BR only to go anywhere from 50% to 200+% negative at the start never to even attempt to defy the logic of this article.

Now I know many of you will think "systems" when you think of this piece and how they can reduce variance and we can talk a little about the difference and need for better systems. BUT I also want people to talk about the esoteric side or maybe personal/friends' anecdotes involving the theme of this piece, and if you somehow haven't read it then you need to before opining, because the theme of this piece is NIGHTMARE FLUCTUATIONS and that should be the continued direction of the dialogue.

**Norm** · 06-26-2016, 05:12 PM

Arnold published the most valuable source of information for many years. He had to come up with a provocative or interesting editorial each quarter. And most were very clever and useful, as was this. (My favorite was about a table full of players that were all APs, but looked like ploppies to the other players because they were gaining advantages in different ways.) Obviously this particular editorial was not designed to tell people to quit. It was designed to provoke thought (as are you) – and perhaps to express some of the feelings he and others occasional feel.

Frankly, some recent posts suggest to me that some players think CC doesn’t work, simply because they are not applying it correctly. They are playing either negative expectation or with an absurd RoR. On the other side, nightmare fluctuations do occur, with more frequency than some expect, leading them to believe that they are being cheated.

Now, don’t get me wrong. I have NEVER in my life, in the tens of thousands of e-mails and phone calls I have received, or the tens of thousands of posts I have made, starting before the web existed, suggested to a soul that anyone should take up AP as a profession. In fact, I have dissuaded many people that call me (my 800 number is public) that this is not the right path for them because I sensed that they were gamblers at heart. It is very difficult for a gambler to overcome his instincts to trust and follow the rules.

OTOH, there exist a much larger number of people that are successful APs than most think. The majority that I know have never posted anywhere.

**stopgambling** · 06-26-2016, 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by Norm

It is very difficult for a gambler to overcome his instincts to trust and follow the rules.

i don't know why it seems to be true . Anyone with average intellect and abilities should be able to understand and follow the rules .The harder parts are emotionally control under the stress of bankroll fluctuation and dealing with the heat. I know many people just can not seems to "get it " that they are playing a losing game and continue to do so but expect differently.

**Villiam** · 06-26-2016, 06:00 PM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

i don't know why it seems to be true . Anyone with average intellect and abilities should be able to understand and follow the rules .The harder parts are emotionally control under the stress of bankroll fluctuation and dealing with the heat. I know many people just can not seems to "get it " that they are playing a losing game and continue to do so but expect differently.

I also think it's easy to follow the rules ad nauseam, while being potentially much harder not to sometimes become nauseated...

**metronome** · 06-26-2016, 07:30 PM

Originally Posted by moses

is it too much butter on the popcorn? Or too much popcorn with butter?

exactly..

**ZeeBabar** · 06-27-2016, 04:00 AM

If "seventeen years later, I am still scrapping by" comes from Arnold Snyder, and we have a few other AP's turned authors, then it is probably true. AP is probably great for those who like the casino environs but it s truly stupid for any young person to pursue as a career. You can't win!!!

quitting to become a full time AP is like quitting to become the next Tiger Woods or LeBron, it ain't happening.

me, I am retired, want to hang around casinos every now and then as a mental challenge. I am okay if I broke even. My first year, playing part time at casinos in St. Louis and the newest, I earned $19.5k. It's still something I have not come close to in subsequent years but it's okay. I don't depend on AP income.

**Villiam** · 06-27-2016, 07:17 AM

Well, what if you didn't scrape by Zee? What if you doubled your spread and played like a wild man? I guess I'm saying I'm more interested in the talk and philosophy of those that can win and lose such crazy chunks by the day that their individual weeks and months can sometimes look absurd relative to the whole picture. I want to know how those people handle it.

Some on here have talked extensively about finding ways to lower variance and N0. I think these are hugely important tactics to employ to hide out from the variance monster. But what about those that are more aggressive and less concerned with daily results? How do you stay level-headed given that you employ higher variance strategies and have bigger swings? I feel like this problem may be responsible for killing so many AP careers. The article alludes to this.

**Stealth** · 06-27-2016, 01:09 PM

It seems to me that the bell shaped curve of your long term results has as many data points on each side of EV, although the extreme data points on each side are far from each other. To not recognize this at the start of an AP adventure (career, hobby, obsession??) is to do a disservice to yourself and to set yourself up for a psychological (keyword is psycho!) roller coaster.

This is the proverbial half full or half empty perspective that seems to attach itself to our personalities early in life. You half empty folks are dying with the variance and you half full ones can't wait to play again.

Perhaps, your issues are not with the game but with your preparation and ability to handle the results.

**LoneWoLF** · 06-27-2016, 05:55 PM

I think the problem rests with people trying to grow a bankroll. Because of needing to grow a bankroll like in my case, all fluctuations hurt, because you desperately want to get a set bankroll where you can just play for fun without worrying about tapping out or having to resize your bets. Like if I had a 250k bankroll I could play a pure wong game 2x250 or 2x300 without any worry in the world because negative fluctuations just wouldnt phase me because i know it will turn without me busting my bankroll apart and having to resize. I cant speak for everyone but in my case, the only reason I get emotional is because Im trying to grow my bankroll which I have grown somewhat successfully, but I can only imagine if i wasnt worried about growing it, i can just play without a care in the world about negative fluctuation knowing I have a huge bank to handle it.

**stopgambling** · 06-27-2016, 07:29 PM

That is a very valid reason. anybody playing with the team's money where he /she only have 1/10 of it invested will not feel stressed. 100k x 10 is solid IMO. WITH 10 people plaYING in a perfect world ,you got it made.It ain't a perfect world .

**ZeeBabar** · 06-27-2016, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by LoneWoLF

I think the problem rests with people trying to grow a bankroll. Because of needing to grow a bankroll like in my case, all fluctuations hurt, because you desperately want to get a set bankroll where you can just play for fun without worrying about tapping out or having to resize your bets. Like if I had a 250k bankroll I could play a pure wong game 2x250 or 2x300 without any worry in the world because negative fluctuations just wouldnt phase me because i know it will turn without me busting my bankroll apart and having to resize. I cant speak for everyone but in my case, the only reason I get emotional is because Im trying to grow my bankroll which I have grown somewhat successfully, but I can only imagine if i wasnt worried about growing it, i can just play without a care in the world about negative fluctuation knowing I have a huge bank to handle it.

these are lies we tell ourselves. You can have a $250k bankroll but you can not sustain such a career and its high stress environment for long before it dawns on you the price of the career you hav chosen. Family, peace, health, status, being rescued and more..

**MJGolf** · 06-27-2016, 08:52 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

these are lies we tell ourselves. You can have a $250k bankroll but you can not sustain such a career and its high stress environment for long before it dawns on you the price of the career you hav chosen. Family, peace, health, status, being rescued and more..

I'm sorry. This statement irritates me and I think it's highly inaccurate. Since this is a philosophical column or thread, I think you are way off base, Zee. Not for the usual reasons that people lambast you on this site but for this philosophy.

This is FAR from a lie I tell myself. Or others I have met on this site. There are learned people on this site; most who will share insight or tips for us all to get better. Some lurk. Some don't post as Norm says. Some have posted in the past but don't post much any more. But for you to say that we are all lying to ourselves sounds like you are "painting everyone with the same broad brush strokes that are inapplicable". I think, rather, that your statement is self introspection or looking in the mirror. You are a gambler or have gambler tendencies. NOT ALL DO. I for one will not play any game that I do not think that I can get some AP advantage at in the long run. Whether it be video poker for the points and cash back; whether it be for card counting for it's small edge; there are other AP plays. I am still learning and desire to learn more. I have met others who are working on different means to "gamble with an edge" as Munchkin's program is titled.

I do not believe nor do I feel that everyone here has given up on 'family, peace, health, status, being rescued and more' as a price of trying to be an AP. Rather the elements you mention more describe the state of being an addict. Gambling can be an addiction..........like many other actions or vices. I do NOT believe that merely working toward becoming an AP or reaching that status makes you an addict. I feel that recently there is almost a depressive tenor to your posts. Seek counsel or therapy. And I mean this in a well intentioned way. I am not one seeking to belittle you; just that you may be at different stage or turning point in your "playing career".