Effect of Progression on Optimal Ramp

[Boz]

Let's say you had a 50K bank, you used an optimal ramp, and you employed no cover with a 0.1% ROR--with one important exception. If you lost a hand where you had the advantage, the following hand where you calculated you also had any advantage, you doubled your previous advantaged bet--unless the optimal bet called for more than doubling your previous advantage bet, in which case you would use the optimal bet (i.e. Martingale).

My question is, how would this effect your ROR and hourly? Sounds like a job for Dog Hand.

[Freightman]

Let's say you had a 50K bank, you used an optimal ramp, and you employed no cover with a 0.1% ROR--with one important exception. If you lost a hand where you had the advantage, the following hand where you calculated you also had any advantage, you doubled your previous advantaged bet--unless the optimal bet called for more than doubling your previous advantage bet, in which case you would use the optimal bet (i.e. Martingale).

My question is, how would this effect your ROR and hourly? Sounds like a job for Dog Hand.

Befire Dog hand gets to it - NOT WISE. Why would you want to do it anyways? And, if the count has gone down, The only possible justification is that you KNOW you're going into a rich clump The first bet looks odd to the pit - you lose that one, and then the second one, it looks like you're chasing - after that, your whole sim is screwed.

A far better approach - consider bucket betting. The idea here is that you ramp real fast initially and you have a high bet and a low bet within each of the subsequent true count buckets - you probe up and down within the buckets depending on win loss for the prior bet - increasing your bet into the next true bucket if counts goes up down if you lose. In other words you have bets that intersect with other buckets. Now, if you do have specific slug knowledge, you can increase your bet into a declining count. That's the beauty of a strong bankroll coupled with opposition type betting. Aveags about 4-6 units per hour.

Now, les say you normally play a $25 min table with strong bankroll, and the find yourself at a $10 table - the possibilities for creativity are endless

There's more, but your idea sounds dumb since your EV is already tied into your ramp.

[Boz]

Why would you want to do it anyways? And, if the count has gone down,

I'm not sure if you understood. Say the count is +3 and you lose the hand. On the next hand, the count is +1.5. You still have an advantage. The ramp says lower your bet (still bet more than the base unit), but you double your previous bet instead. The point is the same as any Martingale, to win much more often than you lose. I'm interested in the effect this has on the stats if you're always Martingaling ONLY when you have a statistical advantage and, at least initially, a low ROR. I'm not touting this as an idea that would work, just something I would like more info on...and as far as I know, no comprehensive information has been published.

A far better approach - consider bucket betting.

I read your description, but I don't really understand. You and T3 and buckets. I'm gonna get you guys a sandbox and make you play together with buckets. Anyway, I see ramping up quick...I know that's sub-optimal in a vacuum. Maybe you're saying if the count goes up, I determine my next bet on the basis of whether or not I won or lost the hand. But I don't know why that's different than cover (which costs EV), nor how that gets 4-6 units/hour. To reiterate, I'm not saying your approach is flawed, I'm saying I don't fully comprehend it.

[Freightman]

I fully understand your first comment - maybe to tough to explain in a brief manner. As far as my second comment - are your bets robotic to the count? If do, look outside the box a bit.

[Boz]

I fully understand your first comment - maybe to tough to explain in a brief manner. As far as my second comment - are your bets robotic to the count? If do, look outside the box a bit.

They used to be 100% fully automated. No kidding you, I used to color down to whites so I could get the exact bet. Now you could call them semi-robotic, mostly so they don't look odd and my ramp up doesn't go 1-100 in front of a suspicious PB.

[Freightman]

They used to be 100% fully automated. No kidding you, I used to color down to whites so I could get the exact bet. Now you could call them semi-robotic, mostly so they don't look odd and my ramp up doesn't go 1-100 in front of a suspicious PB.

The beauty of the bucket betting us that it doesn't look robotic, if done right. However, a continual win streak dies have a tendency if jetting the cat out if the bag.

[Freightman]

They used to be 100% fully automated. No kidding you, I used to color down to whites so I could get the exact bet. Now you could call them semi-robotic, mostly so they don't look odd and my ramp up doesn't go 1-100 in front of a suspicious PB.

One more thought. Slowing down the game to get to the exact bet us silly. Slows down the game to much, complicates payoffs and the dealers don't like it.

[Boz]

One more thought. Slowing down the game to get to the exact bet us silly. Slows down the game to much, complicates payoffs and the dealers don't like it.

Yeah, I know dealers don't like it...but it causes pay out errors. For someone at a low-level like Villiam, it's not a bad idea.

[Freightman]

Yeah, I know dealers don't like it...but it causes pay out errors. For someone at a low-level like Villiam, it's not a bad idea.

Don't try to force dealer errors. They will happen anyways, with weak dealers. I popped about 500-600 with 3 or 4 screw ups with one dealer unforced. My largest ever was during conversation with an experienced dealer - she just simply had a massive brain fart. Don't even know the exact amount, but I would imagine about 2k. Hell, I remember a weak esker that would process my surrender, then okay off my immediate next bet as she was paying the rest of the table.

Just a week or 2 ago, I saw a newbie dealer pay this guy on his 22 and further paid him 3-1 on his losing 22 Sidebet.
Not up to me.

[Boz]

Don't try to force dealer errors. I would imagine about 2k.

I think anything to encourage error is good. Regardless, at a very low level, playing ultra efficiently is necessary and doesn't draw heat. As for the extremely large errors, they make me nervous. I gave a large error back once...at the time, it was close to a max bet. I was trespassed the same day. I still wonder if I woulda got trespassed earlier had I not given it back (which could have cost up to 1K from that point), if they were watching me so close they would have gotten it back anyway, or if I just gave away money. I don't know, but I decided that I don't take large errors if I perceive heat--this was back when I played till barred.

[Villiam]

A far better approach - consider bucket betting.
...
the possibilities for creativity are endless

There's more, but your idea sounds dumb since your EV is already tied into your ramp.

So weird, I just started messing with this idea without knowing I was doing it while practicing red chippin'. It's nice to be able to play with feel and math...
Very cool ideas about slugs too since I often play hand shuffles...
Awesome food for thought Freight!

[Villiam]

Here's a potentially crappy example of a bucket ramp as I see his description, Boz:
TC <2: 5-14
TC 2-3: 10-25
TC 3-4: 21-32
TC 4-5: 26-37
and so on...

You'd have to optimize. Correct me if this is wrong Freight...

[Freightman]

Here's a potentially crappy example of a bucket ramp as I see his description, Boz:
TC <2: 5-14
TC 2-3: 10-25
TC 3-4: 21-32
TC 4-5: 26-37
and so on...

You'd have to optimize. Correct me if this is wrong Freight...

It's relative to your bankroll - also, round to the nearest $5.